I've always been under the assumption that Sidious was behind both the attempts on Padme's life in AotC, and Shmi's kidnapping. Not because everything *must* be connected, but because the timing of basically everything in that movie is way too convenient if he's not deliberately pulling strings.
I mean think about it; Nute Gunray has probably been screaming for her head on a plate for going on a decade, so why indulge him now? The assassin Dooku sends just so happens to be the template they're using for the clone army, AND he just so happens to leave behind the one weapon in his arsenal that could the Jedi right to the very planet they're being produced, and alerting the Jedi to both the army and that their databanks have been compromised in the process? AND while all this is going down, Anakin's mum just so happens to be kidnapped, tortured, and kept alive just long enough for Anakin to fail to save her, right when he's separated by Obi-Wan and alone with Padme? The whole thing reeks of a set-up.
It's not like it would take much effort to orchestrate; literally all Sidious had to do was have an intermediary arrange for the Tuskens to grab Shmi, and have Dooku pass some instructions along to Jango for a job. Everything else is what we saw him do ourselves: delay the vote until he knows Anakin is back on planet so Padme's arrival will coincide. Suggest Kenobi be assigned to her protection, then sit back and watch the dominoes fall while he manipulates the senate into granting him the emergency powers he needs, right when his secret army is ready and discovered.
Tuskens are hardly squeamish, and some tribes are open to trade with outsiders, so the snatch & grab is easy enough to arrange for the right price (probably water, or weapons.) Palpatine has probably had spies keeping very close tabs on Shmi for just such a purpose, so giving them the where and when should be trivial.
All he has to tell Dooku is to finally grant Gunray's demands for satisfaction, but to send Jango with specific instructions; 1) to hire a sub-contractor to target the ship first (Palpatine knows full well about the decoys so this is designed to fail), then 2) to have her make a second attempt with a droid programmed to go right back to her once the delivery is made. Then to 3) silence the assassin with a Kaminoan specific weapon before the Jedi can question her.
That puts Kenobi on the trail of the clone army, which splits him away from Anakin, right when re-encountering Padme it putting his feeling completely out of balance. As for Jango; he probably has standing instructions that if a Jedi ever shows up on Kamino, to come right back to Tyranus. So where does Dooku happen to be at that time? Why on Geonosis of course! Negotiating a treaty with the commerce guilds to supply weapons to the Separatist Alliance no less! Just in time for Kenobi to witness the whole thing and report back, giving Palpatine the pretence he needs to push through the military creation act. What convenient timing! Almost as if someone planned it that way, no?
I doubt he also specifically planned for the Jedi to show up on Geonosis in force, or for Yoda to mobilise the army so rapidly, or even for Anakin & Padme to elope straight out the gate, but that hardly matters. One way or the other, the war would have begun, and Anakin will have been taken the first of many steps on the path to the dark side.
