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1st successful manned spacecraft into LEO?

Dukhat

Dukhat

Admiral
Admiral
Which company's spacecraft do you think will be the first to successfully launch astronauts into LEO?

1. SpaceX - Dragon

2. Boeing - CST-100

3. Lockheed Martin - Orion MPCV

4. Sierra Nevada - Dream Chaser

5. Blue Origin - "Space Vehicle"

6. ATK/Astrium - Liberty rocket/capsule

7. Excalibur Almaz - Almaz

8. Other
 
The Dragon.

Since at the moment it's the only one that ACTUALLY EXISTS, while all of the others are either still in the concept phase or still in the extremely early stages of testing and/or construction.
 
Ten lashes with a wet noodle for an inadequately specific question.

Another ten for not using the forum's poll function.

From what I understand Orion/MPCV and its escape system has undergone significant amounts of testing, but hasn't yet flown the way the cargo version of Dragon has once. I don't think SpaceX has tested their escape eystem while the thrusters were attached to a Dragon. I don't know how much difference it will make with testing and certification, but I gather the manned version of Dragon will use a smaller docking port, similar to the ones used on the shuttle orbiters, instead of the larger type used on most connections in the US/Europe section of the ISS and the cargo version of Dragon (Russian segments and Soyuz use a third type).
 
^Strictly speaking, Cargo Dragon uses a birthing adapter. It cannot dock or leave on it's own without use of the station's mechanical arm. Dragonrider, as the manned version is being referred to by some, will use a docking adapter allowing it to actually dock and leave without assistance. Part of the requirement for manned vehicles visiting ISS.
 
RobertVA said:
Ten lashes with a wet noodle for an inadequately specific question.
Click to expand...

I didn't think the question was that hard to understand.

Another ten for not using the forum's poll function.
Click to expand...

I tried that, but never having created a poll before, I couldn't get it to do what I wanted. But that's more of a shortfall on my part.
 
RobertVA said:
Ten lashes with a wet noodle for an inadequately specific question.

Another ten for not using the forum's poll function.

From what I understand Orion/MPCV and its escape system has undergone significant amounts of testing
Click to expand...
So far, the parachutes and the escape system are the ONLY parts of the ship that have been tested.
 
Liberty is the only one on that list that has neither a physical prototype nor any serious attempt to begin development or construction yet. You might as well suggest Michael Jackson will be the next president of the United States.
 
^As the caption for the image says, an artist's concept. The image of the capsule later in the article was from a concept study for Orion to use a composite structure. It is not, strictly speaking, a Liberty capsule in any way.

The entire Liberty presentation was basically ATK saying "here's what we can build with what we've got lying around". There's no evidence they are willing to actually start any development until they get some NASA pie.
 
Dukhat said:
newtype_alpha said:
Liberty is the only one on that list that has neither a physical prototype nor any serious attempt to begin development or construction yet. You might as well suggest Michael Jackson will be the next president of the United States.
Click to expand...

Then what is this? (second picture)
Click to expand...
The composite pressure module design study they did back in 2007 for Project Constellation. It's funny them acting like this is some kind of awesome constellation-derived innovation from ATK, when NASA themselves rejected the idea as being silly and unworkable. But the general public doesn't know that, and presumably neither does congress.

At the end of the day, ATK's only in it for the CCDev money. They might develop a new launch system... some day, maybe, if they feel like it, but until then, they're putting on their best poker face and trying to bluff their way into some NASA cash.
 
sojourner said:
^As the caption for the image says, an artist's concept. The image of the capsule later in the article was from a concept study for Orion to use a composite structure. It is not, strictly speaking, a Liberty capsule in any way.
Click to expand...

While I was aware the first picture was just an artist's concept, the capsule photo was credited as the "ATK capsule" in this and other websites where this picture was shown when ATK made their statement about building capsules along with their rockets.
I should have known the internet wouldn't give me reliable information :)
 
^ Don't blame the internet. The company provides those images to various websites when it makes these press releases and the editors have to take their word for it as for what those pictures show. If the PR department isn't paying attention -- or if they're just plain lying to make their company look better -- the editors will be the least to know.
 
Most likely: Dragon
Most important for extension of the space private business outside of LEO: Dragon
Most indifferent about: CST-100
Best looking while in space: Orion MPCV
Coolest, most familiar and cosy: The Dream Chaser
Most obscure and most unusual design: Blue Origin's "Space Vehicle" (is this intended to re-enter cone down?)
Not sure if it is real or horror film prop: Liberty capsule
Best for trip to Uranus: Excalibur Almaz

If the Dream Chaser has a toilet, my choice would be to travel to LEO in it on top of a Falcon 9 rocket. On the other hand, forward-looking approach to design of the Dragon and Falcon 9, including the heat shield, propulsion landing, reusability, simplicity and scalability, Dragon's successors are most promising for something beyond LEO in the long term. Of course, it would be the most pleasant surprise if another company proves me wrong here.
 
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