Was World War III a full nuclear exchange or a limited conflict?

Citiprime · May 22, 2023

Within canon, it's claimed that 30% percent of the population was killed (about 2.3 billion people given current 2023 numbers) and 600,000 species were destroyed.

Maybe this is from me going through a recent spate of re-watching old 1980s nuclear war movies like The Day After and Threads, but both of those movies predict damage from a nuclear war that would be a near extinction-level event for humanity. That to rebuild civilization would take multiple, upon multiple generations, and even then it wouldn't necessarily be a given we'd make it, and it would involve people having to endure a totally changed world environmentally (e.g., agriculture would be a mess, EMP effects in the upper atmosphere would limit electricity generation, mutations and stillbirths in pregnancies, lack of organized education for future generations, etc.).

But is what we see in First Contact consistent with that? Would radiation levels from a full-scale nuclear war allow people to be able to live above ground normally 30 years after global nuclear war? Would weather patterns have returned to normal from nuclear winter by that time?

Depending on the factions, either both sides went HAM and pushed all the buttons and burned it all. Or maybe it was a mix of limited strikes and conventional warfare. The latter might explain how a major city (and in all likelihood a strategic target given that it's a major port) like San Francisco seemed to survive World War III, unless the Transamerica Pyramid and the Golden Gate Bridge are rebuilt replicas.

Arpy · May 22, 2023

It had to have been limited. I think that whatever number of people survived a full-out nuclear war, even if it were in the millions, they would very likely dwindle and perish in the years and decades thereafter. Radiation, starvation, mutation, and violence would be rampant. The lucky ones would be those that died in the initial exchange.

At least, this would be the case on most of the planet. I imagine if anyone survived, it would be those in the most remote parts of it who know how to survive without infrastructure, medicine, anything most of us depend on. That is, those the clouds of radiation don't get. And only if there's enough sunlight coming through for them to continue to grow food. Or to hunt wild animals that themselves don't go extinct from the fallout. No idea what peoples they'd be, but they probably wouldn't be white – no James T. Kirk in a few centuries. In fact there's no guarantee that whatever people do survive aren't later wiped out by plagues or internal conflict or continuing changes to the climate, all of which have wiped out cultures throughout history. And which might still wipe us out, nukes aside.

I mean, it's all very grim.

So, I imagine it had to have been a limited exchange between belligerents. Still even that kills a third, A THIRD, of the population and 600,000 species. How many plants and animals we take for granted would be gone in the 23rd century? How alien is Kirk's world from ours in ways we just haven't seen?

Something else. If a third of the population is (by Riker's line in FC) 600 Million people...does that mean the population before the war was only maybe a couple of billion people? Was there a great pandemic or something that had already caused a massive decrease in the population? Maybe something out of Children of Men that made it difficult for us to reproduce? (Or did we all work too hard, bicker too much, and neglect family, community, and the things that make life worth living...any wonder those people would head for WWIII?)

LLAP brothers and sisters.

Guy Gardener · May 22, 2023

I was watching the Brink, and Indian's first attempt to destroy Pakistan failed, the missile exploded during launch, because of a failure of maintenance going back probably generations.

America spends billions each year making sure their atomics, and their atomic delivery systems are up to snuff... Did the Eastern Coalition, inheriting China's decades old arsenal, do the same?

Pike made it sound like Los Angeles and new York were the end of wwiii. Maybe they finally used their nukes, because they ran out of ant-matter bombs?

A dozen Vulcan ships in orbit, for a year removing and replacing top soil with their transporters and replicators, if just transporting billions of tons of soil ten feet off the ground wouldn't both clean and till the Earth.

Did America even strike back?

As the most advanced military power, its highly likely that America did not have any atomic bombs left. They would have switched over to anti-matter bombs in the 2030s. Less maintenance, less waste, no radioactive fallout.

C.E. Evans · May 22, 2023

In recent years, I've come to think of World War III as an umbrella term for a series of global conflicts that ran from 1992 to 2053. Yes, that includes the Eugenics Wars, which could be looked at as what started it all, IMO. Originally it was confined between Asia and the Middle East, and there was a brief pause and some reconstruction after the mysterious disappearance of holdout dictator Khan Noonien Singh. But when hostilities erupted between post-Eugenics Wars factions (including the Eastern Coalition), the conflict gradually expanded across the globe, culminating in a nuclear exchange which brought an abrupt end to fighting whether any side wanted it or not.

Guy Gardener · May 22, 2023

C.E. Evans said:
In recent years, I've come to think of World War III as an umbrella term for a series of global conflicts that ran from 1992 to 2053. Yes, that includes the Eugenics Wars, which could be looked at as what started it all, IMO. Originally it was confined between Asia and the Middle East, and there was a brief pause and some reconstruction after the mysterious disappearance of holdout dictator Khan Noonien Singh. But when hostilities erupted between post-Eugenics Wars factions (including the Eastern Coalition), the conflict gradually expanded across the globe, culminating in a nuclear exchange which brought an abrupt end to fighting whether any side wanted it or not.

Memory alpha has said that wwiii was 2026 - 2053 for quite some time.

Mattalas and Pike are claiming that the Eugenics War did not take place in the 1990s, but that was self evident from the Voyager episode set in the 90s with Sarah Silverman.

archer's great grandfather fought in the Eugenics war in North africa.

dswynne1 · May 22, 2023

My head Canon is that anti-nuke tech did much to stave off the worst effects of WW3, if not some sort of intervention involved (like the people behind Gary 7 for instance).

C.E. Evans · May 22, 2023

Guy Gardener said:
Memory alpha has said that wwiii was 2026 - 2053 for quite some time.

Actually Memory Alpha goes with the idea that World War III is indeed an umbrella title and that it includes the Eugenics Wars too. They base this on Captain Pike's description of World War III in SNW's first episode:

PIKE: Our conflict also started with a fight for freedoms. We called it the Second Civil War--then the Eugenics War--and finally just World War III.

That's exactly why I suggested there was a pause and some reconstruction after Khan disappeared in 1996. 2026 is when fighting broke out between the multi-nation factions established in the aftermath of the Eugenics Wars.

Mattalas and Pike are claiming that the Eugenics War did not take place in the 1990s, but that was self evident from the Voyager episode set in the 90s with Sarah Silverman.

Not really. TOS established that the Eugenics Wars took place between Asia and the Middle East between 1992 and 1996, so the USA was not involved in that conflict. So there was nothing wrong with Sarah Silverman being in a US that still looked normal at the time.

archer's great grandfather fought in the Eugenics war in North africa.

It doesn't move the goal post much, however. Given that a generation could be anywhere between 20-30 years (if not more since some people do have children later in life), it's still possible that Archer's ancestor fought in the conflict, albeit as a very young man, barely more than a kid like so many of the Greatest Generation that actually fought in World War II.

Guy Gardener · May 22, 2023

dswynne1 said:
My head Canon is that anti-nuke tech did much to stave off the worst effects of WW3, if not some sort of intervention involved (like the people behind Gary 7 for instance).

The Proud Boys don't have nukes.

They would have had to have got a bunch of generals and admirals in line first, before they they hung Mike Pense in 2021.

Richard S. Ta · May 22, 2023

C.E. Evans said:
Not really. TOS established that the Eugenics Wars took place between Asia and the Middle East between 1992 and 1996, so the USA was not involved in that conflict. So there was nothing wrong with Sarah Silverman being in a US that still looked normal at the time.

I have never thought about it like that before, but on reflection, that is really neat. I'm taking it!

Lord Garth · May 22, 2023

WWIII starting in 2026. The temptation to comment on Current Events is too strong.

TheAdmiralty · May 22, 2023

Yeah I've thought about this too and the timeline doesn't make sense especially since landmarks like the Golden Gate Bridge and Eiffel Tower are established as still being around in ST. You'd think if the Eastern Coalition went......well.....nuclear, that would mean they'd destroy most if not all of the major western cities which would assuredly include San Francisco and Paris just to run with those examples. And people would be left in rural areas in flyover country like we see in Montana in First Contact. Either all the old stuff on the coasts would have to be gone or it couldn't have been as large scale of a nuclear conflict as they let on in the later ST series.

dswynne1 · May 22, 2023

Guy Gardener said:
The Proud Boys don't have nukes.

They would have had to have got a bunch of generals and admirals in line first, before they they hung Mike Pense in 2021.

I think you might have posted on the wrong forum. "Gary 7" is a character from the TOS episode "Assignment: Earth", who worked for a group of aliens who goal is to guide humanity.

Guy Gardener · May 22, 2023

dswynne1 said:
I think you might have posted on the wrong forum. "Gary 7" is a character from the TOS episode "Assignment: Earth", who worked for a group of aliens who goal is to guide humanity.

Confronted with a second Civil War in 2022, if Supervisor Gary was still on the Job, he may have done something to intervene on the Jan 6 insurrection and Coup.

Was Supervisor Talin from Picard, working out of Gary's office in New York? Probably not, LA is like another planet.

dswynne1 · May 22, 2023

Guy Gardener said:
Confronted with a second Civil War in 2022, if Supervisor Gary was still on the Job, he may have done something to intervene on the Jan 6 insurrection and Coup.

Was Supervisor Talin from Picard, working out of Gary's office in New York? Probably not, LA is like another planet.

But the subject is on how Earth could have survive a nuclear holocaust, not internal political strife. Obviously, you're passionate about the politics surrounding Jan. 6th, but this is the wrong forum for that discussion. Just saying.

C.E. Evans · May 22, 2023

It may depend on how many nukes fell and where. Riker's statement in First Contact that most major cities were destroyed and there were few governments left could still be very much valid if civilization basically collapsed during the Post-Atomic Horror. It only takes one or two good-sized nukes to completely devastate an entire country--and not everything has to be burned to the ground either. Historic landmarks like the Golden Gate Bridge, the Eifel Tower, and that gigantic ketchup bottle in Collinsville, Illinois could still be left standing if society and towns fell into ruin around them, IMO. It could be that many cities were abandoned and left to fall to seed as people fled to various sanctuaries and makeshift settlements for survival.

Given time, the aforementioned landmarks would probably decay and fall as well due to a lack of maintenance, but if some reconstruction began only a few years after Cochrane's flight, they could have been saved.

Tuskin38 · May 22, 2023

TheAdmiralty said:
Yeah I've thought about this too and the timeline doesn't make sense especially since landmarks like the Golden Gate Bridge and Eiffel Tower are established as still being around in ST. You'd think if the Eastern Coalition went......well.....nuclear, that would mean they'd destroy most if not all of the major western cities which would assuredly include San Francisco and Paris just to run with those examples. And people would be left in rural areas in flyover country like we see in Montana in First Contact. Either all the old stuff on the coasts would have to be gone or it couldn't have been as large scale of a nuclear conflict as they let on in the later ST series.

Or you know, they rebuilt them.

The Golden Gate bridge was rebuilt after the Breen blew it up. We humans love our landmarks.

Mr. Laser Beam · May 22, 2023

The Vulcans must have helped in the cleanup and rebuilding.

Shawnster · May 22, 2023

Guy Gardener said:
Mattalas and Pike are claiming that the Eugenics War did not take place in the 1990s, but that was self evident from the Voyager episode set in the 90s with Sarah Silverman.

C.E. Evans said:
Not really. TOS established that the Eugenics Wars took place between Asia and the Middle East between 1992 and 1996, so the USA was not involved in that conflict. So there was nothing wrong with Sarah Silverman being in a US that still looked normal at the time.

Guy Gardener said:
The Proud Boys don't have nukes.

They did soon after they joined the Sons of Jacob. Oh wait, wrong franchise.

Guy Gardener said:
Probably not, LA is like another planet.

And there is your answer, as C. E. Evans shared above. LA is like another planet. Had a time traveler arrived in LA in 1945 would they be able to see signs the US was involved in WWII? Was it obvious from a glance around LA that the US was involved in a conflict in Korea, Vietnam, or Bosnia? If a time traveler arrived at Moscow or St. Petersburg today would they see signs Russia was actively engaged in combat in Ukraine?

Rain Robinson had a model of a DY-100 in launch configuration on her desk.

I lump the breakup of Yugoslavia and the Bosnia war in as part of the Eugenics Wars.

I like this idea of using the Third World War as a catch-all that includes the Second Civil War and the Eugenics Wars. However, without retcon, the Eugenics Wars (plural) were first from 1992-1996. Some historians feel the Second Sino-japanese War, which started in 1937, should be included in the Second World War, which started in 1939.

Mr. Laser Beam · May 22, 2023

I'm totally on board with their being two sets of Eugenics Wars: One in 1992-96 and one in the 21st century.

I mean, they ARE called the WarS...as in plural...

And it has the added benefit of not decanonizing "Space Seed" or TWOK. So it's win-win!

As for World War III: I think we can all agree it wasn't the global Armageddon that everybody thinks of when they hear that phrase. Earth would never have been able to recover if that had been the case. So it's fairly obvious it was rather limited. (I still think the Vulcans helped in the recovery efforts, though.)

Indeed, some countries (like the US) survived the war intact*...Riker said that there were "very few governments left". He didn't say there weren't ANY left.

*in TNG we see a 52-star US flag which is said to come from between 2033 and 2079. WW III was in 2053, so therefore the US was one of the countries which survived.

Guy Gardener · May 23, 2023

dswynne1 said:
But the subject is on how Earth could have survive a nuclear holocaust, not internal political strife. Obviously, you're passionate about the politics surrounding Jan. 6th, but this is the wrong forum for that discussion. Just saying.

Strange New Worlds S01e01 showed a picture of the noose intended to hang Mike Pence from the real world, during a slide show depicting the end of the world, and called it the beginning of the second civil war, which was the the beginning of World War III.

The subject is not "how did Earth survive?" the subject is "was WWIII nuclear or limited?"

The prime faction opposing america in the first days of WWIII were the Proud boys.

They don't have nukes.

Or ultimately, they probably didn't have nukes in 2021.

WWIII was a limited conflict until 2053.

Was World War III a full nuclear exchange or a limited conflict?

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