I was just watching episode "Retrospect" thinking about how guilty they felt for killing Kovin at the end. But they did not actually prove his innocence, did they? They merely found reasons to doubt their own evidence against him. The Doctor used a standard therapeutic regression technique in an attempt to retrieve repressed memories which according to her show that Kovin stole nanoprobes from her body. Kovin did run away from the investigation when it looked like he was going to be found guilty and tried to destroy Voyager and its hundreds of crew members to avoid capture. There have been other episodes where people look innocent right up until the end until we find out they are not: Enterprise episode "The Andorian Incident", the Vulcans appear innocent until they are found guilty Enterprise episode "The Seventh", Menos looked innocent until found guilty DS9 episode "Necessary Evil", Odo is led to believe Kira is innocent of murder and then finds out at the end that she is not If Kovin did what he did, it's reasonable to assume that he would take steps to hide the evidence as best as he could. If they cannot find any evidence implicating Kovin, it could be because he hid the evidence really well and could still be guilty. Do you think he's guilty?
Kovin was anxious that even the question of guilt would be held against him, he didn't trust the system, the magistrate and eventually even Tuvok to be impartial. I wasn't sure if that was hiding guilt or fearing being railroaded. Then there was Seven's memories. Those she had at first were rather specific to an incident with flashes of images. The Doctor's involvement actually muddied the waters. His wanting to help but also his eagerness to psycho analyse put interpretations into Seven's head, they became the conclusion and it was like the investigation was validating that. I leaned towards thinking Kovin ran because he was scared. I don't think there was enough evidence to prove guilt and he paid with his life.
Well, if I remember well, neither Seven or the Doctor was able to clearly prove Kovin's culpability at the end of "Retrospect", right?! His flight and later, his decision to ultimately end his life were not necessarily a proof of his guilt in my opinion, but maybe the consequence of the poisonous atmosphere that prevailed against him (with a permanently tainted reputation, no matter if he if he had been found innocent!) to the point that he saw no other solution than to flee his planet & his people. But even if he had done what he was accused, nothing justified the attitude of the doctor, who called himslef for the occasion, psychologist, judge and jury, pleading to the charge, although he has no skills in these fiels. In my eyes, And according to me, Janeway is as guilty as the Doctor if not more for letting this mess occur and, for not having intervened in progress and at the end, for having given a slap on the hand of the Doctor, there where he deserved a serious disciplinary blaming, which would have prevented other errors committed by the person, later.
She claims Kovin turned someone into a Borg drone, and they just drop that plot point. They should have hunted down that new drone if they wanted evidence. As it is, I think he might have been innocent.
I think when the evidence was scrutinized, it leaned towards his innocence. Some excellent points have already been made. In way of a kind of kharma, Janeway was trying to obtain a more powerful weapon from Kovin which would have helped Voyager against the Hirogen. Without being able to make this trade, Voyager ends up more vulnerable to them down the road.
It seemed to me like he was innocent, I guess it wasn't made completely clear. The episode made it seem like a draconian legal system, and an economic system where slight changes in reputation can destroy you. Running because you don't trust the justice system to treat you fairly is not an indication of guilt. Similar to how a lot of people killed themselves during the Great Depression, it's not a reach that Kouvin thinks even if he's proven innocent, the stain to his reputation will remain, and he will lose his wealth and thus his social standing, which is also to some a motivation for suicide. Extensive research has been done on the reliability of witnesses and the way memory can be influenced particularly when strong emotions are involved.
Guilt by accusation and trial by public opinion is a great problem still in our society. His business was in jeopardy by this accusation. The reason the Grand Jury system was created was to look in confidentiality at how much evidence there actually is against someone before indicting someone for a heinous crime, the understanding being that once society openly accuses someone of certain crimes, it will damage their reputations.
I'd say on the fence leaning towards innocent or probably innocent... there's no way to know for sure, but based on what the viewer gets to see here (as opposed to speculation per the somewhat open ending) that's my feeling.