The Box Office Top Ten Predictor Game 2022

It's the MOST WONDERFUL time of the yeeeeaaarrr!

The nights (in the northern hemisphere) are almost at their longest and the mid-winter booze and food fest is nearly upon us. With that in mind and the fairy lights going up, it's time to reflect on the year gone by and look forward on the year to come. And so in that spirit....


Welcome, to the Box Office Top Ten Predictor Game 2022!


This is a fun game for folks who follow movie box office stories and charts, looking at films coming out in the US during 2022.

The goal is simple:

Use your crystal balls to predict 2022’s top 10 films in terms box office takings in the domestic US, in the order you think they will place as at the end of 31st December 2022.

You get to pick an overall 'squad' of 15 films, the top ten and a subs bench of 5 Dark Horses. Dark Horse picks allow you to choose 5 extra films that you are less sure of appearing in the top 10 but you can get some points if they do instead of one of your main picks. Good examples in recent years could be films like Venom, Deadpool, and IT.

COVID made the past two years near unpredictable. And now that Omicron is here, who knows with 2022. To me, that makes this all the more fun.


Scoring:

Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on

7 points if your pick got into the top ten and was only one spot away from where it ended up

5 points if it was in the top ten and two spots away

3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10

1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don't get 13+3, you get 13.

The maximum possible score is 106.

Scoring is limited to films which are in the top ten. So, if you nominate a film at 9 or 10 and they come in at 11 or 12, the 7 and 5 points won’t apply.



Notes:
1. This is for the US domestic Box Office only. No overseas figures are included.

2. Only films which open in the US in 2022 can be included. You can find a list here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/calendar/?ref_=bo_nb_yld_tab; or here: https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/2022

E.g. Any 2022 gross for West Side Story, Spider-Man: No Way Home or The Matrix: Resurrections, will not be included

3. Only takings up to the 31st December 2022 will be included.

E.g. Avatar 2 is currently due for release on 16 December 2022 and will only have 16 days of takings counted. That doesn’t mean a late released film can’t make it into the top ten, some have made it to the top. For Star Wars: The Force Awakens back in 2015, that cut off made the difference between first and second place (by roughly $5K! It was beaten by Jurassic World).

4. After entries close, there will be no substitutions if you nominate a film currently on the release schedule, which is then pushed back into another year or cancelled altogether by the studio after entries close. A good example of this in recent years is Top Gun: Maverick (and most of this years films which were pushed back from last year).

5. Likewise, there will be no substitutions if you nominate a film currently on the theatrical release schedule that then is bought by Netflix or Amazon or other streaming service and doesn’t get a theatrical release. This has happened to The Cloverfield Paradox and Mowgli in recent, pre-Covid years. Likewise, if you nominate a direct to streaming release (i.e. Hocus Pocus 2 is direct to Disney+) and I don’t catch it and warn you, no subs.

6. You are free to make and post changes to your predictions at any time between when you first post them and when entries close.

7. Entries close at Noon UK time on 17th January 2022. No changes or late entries will be included after this point.



In the event of a tie

If there is a tie break situation, the winner will be determined, on a sliding scale by:

1. Who nominated the most films which scored 13
2. Who nominated the most films which scored 10
3. Who nominated the most films which scored 7
4. Who nominated the most films which scored 5
5. Who nominated the most films which scored 3
6. Who had the most scoring Dark Horse nominations
7. Who had the most scoring nominations altogether
8. Who had the highest placing, non-scoring nominated film
9. If the two nominations list match exactly, whoever posted that list first

 

For the sake of comparison here are the results for previous years up to 2020:

2020 (May not be the best example, as Covid near enough stopped play)
1. Bad Boys for Life
2. Sonic the Hedgehog
3. Birds of Prey/Harlequin
4. Dolittle
5. The Invisible Man
6. The Call of the Wild
7. Onward
8. Tenet
9. The Gentlemen
10. The Croods: A New Age

11. Fantasy Island
12. The New Mutants
13. Wonder Woman 1984
14. Like a Boss
15. The Grudge

2019
1. Avengers: Endgame
2. The Lion King
3. Toy Story 4
4. Frozen 2
5. Captain Marvel
6. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
7. Spider-man: Far From Home
8. Aladdin
9. Joker
10. IT: Chapter 2

11 - Jumanji: The Next Level
12 - Us
13 - Hobbs and Shaw
14 - John Wick: Chapter 3: Parabellum
15 - How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

2018
1. Black Panther
2. Avengers Infinity war
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
5. Deadpool 2
6. The Grinch
7. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
8. Ant-Man and The Wasp
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story
10. Venom

11. A Star is Born
12. Aquaman
13. Bohemian Rhapsody
14. A Quiet Place
15. Ralp Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2

2017
1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Wonder Woman
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming
6. IT: Chapter One
7. Thor: Ragnarok
8. Despicable Me 3
9. Logan
10. The Fate of the Furious

11. Justice League
12. Dunkirk
13. Coco
14. The Lego Batman Movie
15. Get Out

 

I've started from a list of 31 movies and whittled it down to 15.

This is a first pass. My first pass is normally intuitive, without much thinking through.

Normally I'll revise and shuffle the 15 a two or three times while entries are open, at least in part to add in some amateur number crunching and projections to shore up the positioning. Looking back at my long list, I may swap something back in, IF I can decide what I'd drop out of this.


1. Thor: Love and Thunder
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. The Flash
4. Lightyear
5. The Batman
6. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
7. Jurassic World: Dominion
8. Mission: Impossible 7
9. Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Part One
10. Top Gun: Maverick

DH. Avatar 2
DH. Nope
DH. Black Adam
DH. Minions: The Rise of Gru
DH. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

 

1. Avatar 2
2. Thor: Love and Thunder
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. The Batman
6. Doctor Strange 2
7. Fantastic Beasts 3
8. Mission: Impossible 7
9. Jurassic World: Dominion
10. Top Gun: Maverick

 

Playing without Dark Horses? Wild!

 

Happy New Year!!!

With entries and alterations open until Noon UK time on 17 January, we now have 2021's top 15 as at 31 Dec...

1. Spider-Man: No Way Home ($573M)
2. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($225M)
3. Venom: Let There be Carnage ($213M)
4. Black Widow ($184M)
5. Furious 9 ($173M)
6. Eternals ($165M)
7. No Time to Die ($161M)
8. A Quiet Place Part 2 ($160M)
9. Ghostbusters: Afterlife ($122M)
10. Free Guy ($121.6M)

11. Jungle Cruise
12. Dune
13. Godzilla vs Kong
14. Halloween Kills
15. Encanto

I think 2021 showed us that, while the total takings were down, the general patterns were still happening, just on a reduced scale. Does that mean 2022 is easy to predict? Ask me in 12 months.

I've looked again at my first pass above and I've decided (as expected) that I'm unhappy with it and I want to mix it up a bit, but I can't decide exactly how. But that's ok, I'm sure something will come to me in the next couple of weeks.

 

My second pass... Not changed much but I have shuffled placings and subbed one DH for another film

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
3. Lightyear
4. Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Part One
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. The Flash
7. Jurassic World: Dominion
8. The Batman
9. Mission: Impossible 7
10. Top Gun: Maverick

DH. Avatar 2
DH. Nope
DH. Black Adam
DH. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
DH. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Even looking at this having just written it, I'm thinking a third pass is going to be needed. Mostly, still, it's order and I think I'm having trouble this year of separating my own enthusiasm for films (though there's some I'm looking forward too which don't make it here because I'm realistic about them) and trying to guess what the US general audience will turn out to see.

Sonic the Hedgehog, for example was second in the 2020 top ten chart. But, this is in no small part down to everything shutting down about 5 or 6 weeks into its run. The first one would, in pre-covid times, have ended up between 15 and 20. So, I don't know if the second will get to the top ten, I'd normally guess from a 15-20 placing that the sequel would, at best, sit in the 11-20 range.

I'm probably massively over estimating Lightyear. Maybe.

 

Four days left to post entries or revisions

 

Here's my final revision

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Lightyear
4. Spider-man: Across the Spider-verse Part One
5. Thor: Love and Thunder
6. The Flash
7. The Batman
8. Jurassic World: Dominion
9. Mission: Impossible 7
10. Top Gun: Maverick

DH. Avatar 2
DH. Nope
DH. Black Adam
DH. Sonic the Hedehog 2
DH. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

 

And that's entries closed. A two-horse race this year.

 

With just over a month to go, it's a close race.

The current top ten at the US Domestic Box Office is:

1. Top Gun Maverick#
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
3. Jurassic World: Dominion
4. Minions: The Rise of Gru
5. The Batman
6. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
7. Thor: Love and Thunder
8. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
9. Black Adam
10. Elvis


Giving us scores of

28 - The Knappos
27 - Starbreaker

It will all hinge on the final places and of course how big of a splash (pardon the pun) Avatar: The Way of Water makes. I don't know if it's got what it takes to beat Top Gun's $716M in the two ish weeks it's got. But we'll see.

 

As of Tuesday, Avatar 2 has made it into the top ten at number 9.

It's wide open how well it will [continue] to do, but it's on course to be at 8 by now ish (once the numbers are confirmed) and if it does really well could land anywhere between 7th and 4th.

Still 9 days to go though, so who know how high it'll climb.

In other news, the 2023 game has started...

 

They still can but it’s been a long while since there was more than one.
Though I must admit, sometimes places 11-20 are more interesting to watch than the top ten these days.

 

It is crazy that 4 of your 15 got completely rescheduled to 2023

 

A few years back it would have been four sold to streaming

 

And the estimate numbers have been revised and confirmed and we have our 2022 top ten:

1. Top Gun: Maverick ($719M)
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($436M)
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($411M)
4. Avatar: The Way of Water ($401M)
5. Jurassic World: Dominion ($377M)
6. Minions: The Rise of Gru ($369.6M)
7. The Batman ($369.3M)
8. Thor: Love and Thunder ($343M)
9. Sonic the Hedgehog 2 ($191M)
10. Black Adam ($168M)

No one (neither two of us eventual players) got Minions in our predictions and we nominated 7 films which didn't hit the top ten:

13. Nope
14. Lightyear
19. Fantastic Beasts 3

The other four nominations were delayed to 2023.

And the scores out of a possible 106 are:

25 - @Starbreaker
37 - The Knappos

Thanks for playing, Starbreaker.

For anyone else who'd like a go at the 2023 game, it is open for entries already. Entries close at noon UK time on 16 Jan

 

Care to be more specific? I am happy that Black Panther was #2