MLB Offseason 2013-2014

[Timby]

Ellsbury brings a higher on base percentage, less strike-outs, more stolen bases and you don't loose much pop.

Fun fact: If Ellsbury had hit one fewer home run this past season, his 2011 season would comprise exactly half of his career total. Remove 2011 from the equation (because he's never going to repeat that), and he averages about eight dingers a season. Ellsbury has very little pop; he's basically Carl Crawford 2.0 (except he's somehow getting paid more). Ellsbury is not elite talent, and there's no reason to pay him like he is.

The other interesting factor in play here is that the Yankees are still desperately trying to get under the luxury tax threshold and reports say they haven't given up on Cano, which would suggest they're expecting a Christmas present in the form of a lengthy Alex Rodriguez suspension.

I'm not so sure about the "trying to stay under $189". I know they've stated that, but it sure doesn't seem like that's really a factor.

Every move they've made over the past two years has been about getting under 189. That's why they trotted out an outfield of Gardner and the corpses of Vernon Wells and Ichiro last year.

Not sure I agree about Ellsbury either. I think he is a top tear player. Just look at what he brought to the Red Sox last year.

Player A: 2228 PA, 23 HR, 161 SB, 38 CS, .268/.352/.381

Player B: 2472 PA, 33 HR, 202 SB, 31 CS, .289/.341/.405

Guess who?

We'll see I guess, it's kind of suprising to me that Seattle all of a sudden "might" be willing to pay Cano $200. I'm taking that with a grain of salt.

Hint: The Mariners are major players for Cano in the same way the Mets are, which is to say about 24 hours ago the Yankees drew another line in the sand.

 

[Yanks]

Player A: 2228 PA, 23 HR, 161 SB, 38 CS, .268/.352/.381

Player B: 2472 PA, 33 HR, 202 SB, 31 CS, .289/.341/.405

Guess who?

OK, I give...

...but numbers don't signify what he meant to the Red Sox line up.

Don't forget, the bigget part of that deal is that he is no longer in the Sox line-up. Double whammy is that he'll be patrolling center for the Yanks.

We'll see I guess, it's kind of suprising to me that Seattle all of a sudden "might" be willing to pay Cano $200. I'm taking that with a grain of salt.

Hint: The Mariners are major players for Cano in the same way the Mets are, which is to say about 24 hours ago the Yankees drew another line in the sand.

Agree.

 

[Kirby]

The Rockies traded the streaky Dexter Fowler to the Astros for Brandon Barnes (meh), and Jordan Lyles with his magnificant 5.59 era. Way to go Rockies. WTF?

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

Wonder how Salty feels about going from a team that just won the World Series to...the Marlins.

 

[Scout101]

About 21 Million dollars richer, I'd imagine. And playing in nice weather near his house.

Probably not terrible

Like a lot of people in a lot of sports, it's the drive to get the championship/ring. Once you've gotten that, it's nice to have more, but it's also ok to chase the money a bit and get yourself set up. Same thing Ellsbury just did: get your rings, then sign a bloated contract to a washed-up team to cash in

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

Wonder how Salty feels about going from a team that just won the World Series to...the Marlins.

It's just like getting sent to the minors I would guess.

 

[Kirby]

^^ A LOSING minor league team at that. Enjoy your cash and good coffee Salty.

 

[Yanks]

The Sox had no desire nor need to keep him...

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

They got rid of Salty, but signed the washed up AJ Pierzynski?

 

[Timby]

Player A: 2228 PA, 23 HR, 161 SB, 38 CS, .268/.352/.381

Player B: 2472 PA, 33 HR, 202 SB, 31 CS, .289/.341/.405

Guess who?

OK, I give...

...but numbers don't signify what he meant to the Red Sox line up.

It's baseball. Numbers are everything. And to that note, Player A is Brett Gardner. Player B is Ellsbury with his monster 2011 removed, since nothing before or since says he'll repeat it. The point is that they are extremely comparable players, which is to say "good," but not elite and far from top-tier.

Don't forget, the bigget part of that deal is that he is no longer in the Sox line-up. Double whammy is that he'll be patrolling center for the Yanks.

You seem to be overlooking the fact that Ellsbury was not a significant piece of their lineup. Sure, he was a good player for them. But he's pretty easily replaceable: Very little power but runs really fast, and speed is the trait that degrades most quickly in players. As I said, he's Carl Crawford 2.0.

 

[Yanks]

Player A: 2228 PA, 23 HR, 161 SB, 38 CS, .268/.352/.381

Player B: 2472 PA, 33 HR, 202 SB, 31 CS, .289/.341/.405

Guess who?

OK, I give...

...but numbers don't signify what he meant to the Red Sox line up.

It's baseball. Numbers are everything. And to that note, Player A is Brett Gardner. Player B is Ellsbury with his monster 2011 removed, since nothing before or since says he'll repeat it. The point is that they are extremely comparable players, which is to say "good," but not elite and far from top-tier.

Don't forget, the bigget part of that deal is that he is no longer in the Sox line-up. Double whammy is that he'll be patrolling center for the Yanks.

You seem to be overlooking the fact that Ellsbury was not a significant piece of their lineup. Sure, he was a good player for them. But he's pretty easily replaceable: Very little power but runs really fast, and speed is the trait that degrades most quickly in players. As I said, he's Carl Crawford 2.0.

We'll see. I don't think so.

And "over-paying" is a relative term for the Yankees. They could spend 300 million on a team if they wanted to.

I think you undervalue his impact in the RS line-up. The guy is a table setter. Rattles pitchers, all that.

The Sox were a different team with him in the line-up.

I also believe he didn't lead off in 2011. So when given the opportunity to hit for power, he did.

Again, it a plus minus thing. If you take the money out of it, it's a huge win for the Yankees.

Also, why didn't he give them the home-town discount like Pedroia did?

I think he wanted out of Boston. I think he had it with the fans ripping him for being hurt.

 

[Danny99]

Jays sign Dioner Navarro and non-tender JP Arencibia.

I'm not sure how I feel about this from a baseball perspective, but Arencibia became the most hated man on the team last year. From his horrible average to his high strikeouts to his shitty defense, all of it was eclipsed in the city when he went after TV analysts for being negative and complained to the team President about the negativity. Sure he can hit for power, but like many Jays players last season, he had a home run or nothing mentality. If someone can fix all of his foibles, they might have a real prize on their hands.

Apparently Navarro is well liked by pitchers and is good at the plate and behind it. Jays fans are screaming about the fact the Yankees got McCann, Red Sox get Pierzynski and we get Navarro. But I will let time tell.

 

[Scout101]

They got rid of Salty, but signed the washed up AJ Pierzynski?

Sox have 3 hot catching prospects, one of which just got to AAA. AJP took a 1 year deal, Salty wanted 3 years (blocking said prospects). Salty shit the bed in the world series, and aside from when he's getting his HRs, looks completely lost at the plate and is due for a major regression. Salty couldn't throw out a baserunner if you allowed him to stand on the mound.

AJP isn't special, but can hit, is reliable, and only wanted 1 year deal, thus not blocking the prospects longterm.

Which part is confusing?

 

[Timby]

OK, I give...

...but numbers don't signify what he meant to the Red Sox line up.

It's baseball. Numbers are everything. And to that note, Player A is Brett Gardner. Player B is Ellsbury with his monster 2011 removed, since nothing before or since says he'll repeat it. The point is that they are extremely comparable players, which is to say "good," but not elite and far from top-tier.

Don't forget, the bigget part of that deal is that he is no longer in the Sox line-up. Double whammy is that he'll be patrolling center for the Yanks.

You seem to be overlooking the fact that Ellsbury was not a significant piece of their lineup. Sure, he was a good player for them. But he's pretty easily replaceable: Very little power but runs really fast, and speed is the trait that degrades most quickly in players. As I said, he's Carl Crawford 2.0.

We'll see. I don't think so.

And "over-paying" is a relative term for the Yankees. They could spend 300 million on a team if they wanted to.

I think you undervalue his impact in the RS line-up. The guy is a table setter. Rattles pitchers, all that.

The Sox were a different team with him in the line-up.

I also believe he didn't lead off in 2011. So when given the opportunity to hit for power, he did.

Again, it a plus minus thing. If you take the money out of it, it's a huge win for the Yankees.

I'm still trying to make heads or tails of this, so I'll just ask: Exactly what of Ellsbury's history -- I'm asking for something quantifiable, not "table-setter" or "rattles pitchers" -- makes this a "huge win" for the Yankees? Otherwise, you're talking like an old scout who thinks numbers are meaningless.

 

[Skywalker]

Ellsbury is a menace on the base paths and I do think that short porch in right field will inflate his home run totals a bit (though I doubt he'll ever reach 32 again), but he's not and will never be a $153 million player. His defensive instincts are questionable at best and he relies on his speed to make up for iffy routes. That speed will diminish as he ages. Combine that with an arm that's already weak and he's going to become a liability in the outfield before that contract's up.

I don't consider Ellsbury a traitor (or "trader," as the internet apparently spells it). It seemed inevitable for a few years now that he would end up moving on and getting his big payday someplace else one day, that he wouldn't be a Red Sox lifer like possibly Dustin Pedroia will be. Good on him getting as much money as he could out of the absurd free agent market, and also good on him for convincing the Yankees to dump yet another horrid contract on what will soon be another old and overpriced player.

 

[Yanks]

It's baseball. Numbers are everything. And to that note, Player A is Brett Gardner. Player B is Ellsbury with his monster 2011 removed, since nothing before or since says he'll repeat it. The point is that they are extremely comparable players, which is to say "good," but not elite and far from top-tier.



You seem to be overlooking the fact that Ellsbury was not a significant piece of their lineup. Sure, he was a good player for them. But he's pretty easily replaceable: Very little power but runs really fast, and speed is the trait that degrades most quickly in players. As I said, he's Carl Crawford 2.0.

We'll see. I don't think so.

And "over-paying" is a relative term for the Yankees. They could spend 300 million on a team if they wanted to.

I think you undervalue his impact in the RS line-up. The guy is a table setter. Rattles pitchers, all that.

The Sox were a different team with him in the line-up.

I also believe he didn't lead off in 2011. So when given the opportunity to hit for power, he did.

Again, it a plus minus thing. If you take the money out of it, it's a huge win for the Yankees.

I'm still trying to make heads or tails of this, so I'll just ask: Exactly what of Ellsbury's history -- I'm asking for something quantifiable, not "table-setter" or "rattles pitchers" -- makes this a "huge win" for the Yankees? Otherwise, you're talking like an old scout who thinks numbers are meaningless.

I do not think numbers are meaningless, but there is more to baseball than numbers. Gardner isn't the clutch hitter he is and for all his speed hasn't learned to steal consistently. Ellsbury also has a better arm.

We need a lead of hitter like him. Home runs will be a bonus if we get them.

I don't think the Sox can replace him with what they have coming up.

So, it's a win for the Yanks, because we are in the same division and will play each other at least 19 times.

Like I said, take the money out of it and it's a slam dunk for the Yankees.

Do I like the contract? No. If I were to price him, I'd say 18M a year tops for 6 years tops.

But I'm not writing the checks.

 

[Tom Servo]

We'll see. I don't think so.

And "over-paying" is a relative term for the Yankees. They could spend 300 million on a team if they wanted to.

I think you undervalue his impact in the RS line-up. The guy is a table setter. Rattles pitchers, all that.

The Sox were a different team with him in the line-up.

I also believe he didn't lead off in 2011. So when given the opportunity to hit for power, he did.

Again, it a plus minus thing. If you take the money out of it, it's a huge win for the Yankees.

I'm still trying to make heads or tails of this, so I'll just ask: Exactly what of Ellsbury's history -- I'm asking for something quantifiable, not "table-setter" or "rattles pitchers" -- makes this a "huge win" for the Yankees? Otherwise, you're talking like an old scout who thinks numbers are meaningless.

I do not think numbers are meaningless, but there is more to baseball than numbers. Gardner isn't the clutch hitter he is and for all his speed hasn't learned to steal consistently. Ellsbury also has a better arm.

We need a lead of hitter like him. Home runs will be a bonus if we get them.

I don't think the Sox can replace him with what they have coming up.

So, it's a win for the Yanks, because we are in the same division and will play each other at least 19 times.

Like I said, take the money out of it and it's a slam dunk for the Yankees.

Do I like the contract? No. If I were to price him, I'd say 18M a year tops for 6 years tops.

But I'm not writing the checks.

You are wrong on multiple points. First off, Ellsbury's arm is NOT as good as Gardners, I don't where you got that info but you're wrong there.

Secondly, the Red Sox can replace his production with what they have coming up. Not necessarily in CF, where they'll probably get 75% of the production at 2% of the cost with Jackie Bradley Jr., but by upgrading the team all over the field. Hell having Bogaerts in there full time next year will offset some of that production.

Unlike the Yankees at this point, they have a constant stream of talent coming up out their farm system. The Yankees HAVE to do deals like this to acquire talent, the Red Sox don't.

 

[Yanks]

You are wrong on multiple points. First off, Ellsbury's arm is NOT as good as Gardners, I don't where you got that info but you're wrong there.

Don't know what you watch, but .... well ....

How am I wrong?

Secondly, the Red Sox can replace his production with what they have coming up. Not necessarily in CF, where they'll probably get 75% of the production at 2% of the cost with Jackie Bradley Jr., but by upgrading the team all over the field. Hell having Bogaerts in there full time next year will offset some of that production.

We'll see about this for sure. That's the fun about this. We'll be here at the all-star break saying neener-neener...

Unlike the Yankees at this point, they have a constant stream of talent coming up out their farm system. The Yankees HAVE to do deals like this to acquire talent, the Red Sox don't.

No question the Sox have a better farm system right now and you're right, they do have to pay for players.

Did I ever say any different? Did you think they were going to accept another year not making the play-offs?

But like I said, and all the Sox fans don't want to hear this, but take the $$$$ out of this and it's a decidedly one sided deal in favor of the Yankees.

 

[Tom Servo]

You are wrong on multiple points. First off, Ellsbury's arm is NOT as good as Gardners, I don't where you got that info but you're wrong there.

Don't know what you watch, but .... well ....

How am I wrong?

Secondly, the Red Sox can replace his production with what they have coming up. Not necessarily in CF, where they'll probably get 75% of the production at 2% of the cost with Jackie Bradley Jr., but by upgrading the team all over the field. Hell having Bogaerts in there full time next year will offset some of that production.

We'll see about this for sure. That's the fun about this. We'll be here at the all-star break saying neener-neener...

Unlike the Yankees at this point, they have a constant stream of talent coming up out their farm system. The Yankees HAVE to do deals like this to acquire talent, the Red Sox don't.

No question the Sox have a better farm system right now and you're right, they do have to pay for players.

Did I ever say any different? Did you think they were going to accept another year not making the play-offs?

But like I said, and all the Sox fans don't want to hear this, but take the $$$$ out of this and it's a decidedly one sided deal in favor of the Yankees.

Well as I type this, Cano signs a deal with the Mariners. They swapped Cano for Ells basically. Thats a downgrade, anyway you slice it.

You CAN'T take the money out of it, because it's that money that just kept the Yankees from signing Cano.

As for the arm issue, I quote these two articles:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nbc-y...sbury-booed-fenway-142909254--ocid.yahoo.html

"Like Damon, Ellsbury was a left-handed hitting, leadoff center fielder with a weak arm..."

http://www.billjamesonline.com/best_defensive_players_of_the_decade_part_iii_/

In comparing Gardner to Alex Gordon:

"By comparison, Brett Gardner has a good arm, but only about 25 percent of his defensive prowess is due to his arm."

I think's pretty universally known that Gardner has a pretty good arm, and Ellsbury is a below average thrower.

 

[Yanks]

Well, Robbie Cano to the Mariners.... 240M/10yrs.

See ya.

Good on the Yankees for not going 10 years.

Lost Granderson to the Mets. 6yrs/60M. I wanted to keep him. One of my favorite players.