MLB Offseason 2013-2014

[Yanks]

Cano: Offer him 160/6 and tell him to take it or leave it. No deals for more than 6 years.

That Tiger trade is incredible for them. Allows Migeul to move to first, they can bring up a cheap stud from the minors and they lose Fielder's overblown contract.

I know Texas was looking for pop in the middle of their line-up, but I'm not so sure this is the answer for them.

 

[Timby]

I know Texas was looking for pop in the middle of their line-up, but I'm not so sure this is the answer for them.

Fielder has averaged .297 / .396 / .913 over the past three seasons. Any team would kill to have that bat in the lineup.

 

[Yanks]

I know Texas was looking for pop in the middle of their line-up, but I'm not so sure this is the answer for them.

Fielder has averaged .297 / .396 / .913 over the past three seasons. Any team would kill to have that bat in the lineup.

I don't think his post season numbers do. Hasn't made his presence felt in the post season since 2011.

 

[Timby]

I know Texas was looking for pop in the middle of their line-up, but I'm not so sure this is the answer for them.

Fielder has averaged .297 / .396 / .913 over the past three seasons. Any team would kill to have that bat in the lineup.

I don't think his post season numbers do. Hasn't made his presence felt in the post season since 2011.

The idea that certain players are bad in important (i.e. high leverage) situations while other players excel in those situations is, for the most part, not a real phenomenon. There are stats you can look up which quantify this effect, and most players have a "clutch" value that varies wildly from year to year.

Case in point, Prince has a positive career "clutch" rating. But last year it was negative. Barry Bonds used to be the consummate absolutely killed by the media / fans for being the crazy unclutch guy, and then he had literally the greatest single World Series ever.

Your argument essentially boils down to, "Prince Fielder was crappy for 100 PAs and awesome for 1400 PAs; the 100 bad ones just happened to be in the playoffs, though, so fuck that guy."

 

[R. Star]

Fielder's post season numbers don't matter much if you don't... get to the post season. Baseball is a game of streaks, and a lot of people go cold for 5-7 games at a time. Just happens. Take Ortiz... based on his ACLS numbers would you have benched him during the WS Yanks?

 

[Use of Time]

The Tigers should be dancing in the streets. Unloading all of that money lets them extend Miggy and resign Scherzer. They can also move Miggy to first base to make room for their 3B prospect Castellanos.

It definitely leaves them with a big hole offensively, though. Kinsler's pretty much the definition of an average bat, and he's rather injury-prone, as well. And on defense, well, Castellanos isn't their third baseman of the future. At third, he was a guy with terrible range due to horribad instincts, despite good athleticism, who also fielded a stellar .921 in the minors, and he hasn't played the position at all in a year and a half and got dumped to the outfield because the Tigers determined he was completely hopeless at third. I don't know how that could possibly be spun as a positive for the team.

On top of that, the Tigers aren't really saving any money over the next few years, given that they're paying $30 million of Fielder's contract and Kinsler is owed something like $62 million.

So, really, this doesn't make a lick of sense from the Tigers' perspective.

They are thinking long term. Fielder has started to regress a little bit and this will help them avoid those back end years of the contract that are usually unkind to overweight first baseman. He still has tremendous power and no doubt Arlington will suit him as it plays great for lefties. He was owed 168 million over seven years, they agreed to pay about 30 million and take on Kinsler's 62 million. Basic math shows us that that will free up some money for when Scherzer becomes a free agent and Cabrera comes up for an extension. Kinsler's a decent player as well. I think it came down to the Tiger's thinking that they could either have Fielder and risk losing Miggy and Scherzer or go ahead and unload an enormous contract while you have the chance.

 

[Timby]

The Tigers should be dancing in the streets. Unloading all of that money lets them extend Miggy and resign Scherzer. They can also move Miggy to first base to make room for their 3B prospect Castellanos.

It definitely leaves them with a big hole offensively, though. Kinsler's pretty much the definition of an average bat, and he's rather injury-prone, as well. And on defense, well, Castellanos isn't their third baseman of the future. At third, he was a guy with terrible range due to horribad instincts, despite good athleticism, who also fielded a stellar .921 in the minors, and he hasn't played the position at all in a year and a half and got dumped to the outfield because the Tigers determined he was completely hopeless at third. I don't know how that could possibly be spun as a positive for the team.

On top of that, the Tigers aren't really saving any money over the next few years, given that they're paying $30 million of Fielder's contract and Kinsler is owed something like $62 million.

So, really, this doesn't make a lick of sense from the Tigers' perspective.

They are thinking long term. Fielder has started to regress a little bit and this will help them avoid those back end years of the contract that are usually unkind to overweight first baseman. He still has tremendous power and no doubt Arlington will suit him as it plays great for lefties. He was owed 168 million over seven years, they agreed to pay about 30 million and take on Kinsler's 62 million. Basic math shows us that that will free up some money for when Scherzer becomes a free agent and Cabrera comes up for an extension.

OK, so, they're on the hook for $92 million over the next four years -- meaning they essentially save no money during that time, meaning it's completely divorced from their ability to extend Scherzer next winter and Cabrera the year after that.

 

[Yanks]

"Fuck him"??? I watched him play this past post season and I wasn't impressed. Guess it was just my hatin you know.

Really guys?

I think he's past his "prime". His numbers continue to go down. Just like Pulious (sp). Assine contract by the Angels. Same with Choke-Rods contract.

Look, I'm a Yankees fan and I feel the same way about Cano. He's not worth stupid money. He's too streaky. Not disciplined.

Of course I wouldn't have benched Papi. But he isn't due another 100+ million dollars either and really doesn't relate to this conversation.

It took years of roids to get Bonds to accel in the play-offs.

 

[Use of Time]

It definitely leaves them with a big hole offensively, though. Kinsler's pretty much the definition of an average bat, and he's rather injury-prone, as well. And on defense, well, Castellanos isn't their third baseman of the future. At third, he was a guy with terrible range due to horribad instincts, despite good athleticism, who also fielded a stellar .921 in the minors, and he hasn't played the position at all in a year and a half and got dumped to the outfield because the Tigers determined he was completely hopeless at third. I don't know how that could possibly be spun as a positive for the team.

On top of that, the Tigers aren't really saving any money over the next few years, given that they're paying $30 million of Fielder's contract and Kinsler is owed something like $62 million.

So, really, this doesn't make a lick of sense from the Tigers' perspective.

They are thinking long term. Fielder has started to regress a little bit and this will help them avoid those back end years of the contract that are usually unkind to overweight first baseman. He still has tremendous power and no doubt Arlington will suit him as it plays great for lefties. He was owed 168 million over seven years, they agreed to pay about 30 million and take on Kinsler's 62 million. Basic math shows us that that will free up some money for when Scherzer becomes a free agent and Cabrera comes up for an extension.

OK, so, they're on the hook for $92 million over the next four years -- meaning they essentially save no money during that time, meaning it's completely divorced from their ability to extend Scherzer next winter and Cabrera the year after that.

They are on the hook for 62 million. The 30 million is already gone and will not be tied up in salary come 2014 when Scherzer is available. In fact they will be on the hook for $46 million by then, $41 million if they don't exercise the club option. What kind of deal they can offer Scherzer will most surely factor into what their payroll is down the road especially during the years of what would be Fielder's final two contract seasons. You can see by the way their contracts are structured below why they should be able to have more wiggle room down the road. The Tigers have even gone on record that this was the motivation behind their deal. Fielder is steadily declining. His OPS has gone down every year for the last three seasons. I think those are some strong warning signs.

Future Salary Obligations

Kinsler vs Fielder

2014 $16M $24M
2015 $16M $24M
2016 $14M $24M
2017 $11M $24M
2018 $5M $24M
2019 -- $24M
2020 -- $24M

 

[Skywalker]

Fielder is going to mash in Texas. That ball's going to go a long way in that stadium. I think this was a good deal for both teams. It gives the Rangers the left-handed power bat they badly needed, while also opening up a spot for Jurickson Profar, and the Tigers get some salary relief so that they can extend Scherzer next year and Cabrera in two years.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

Michael Weiner (head of the MLBPA) has died. Link

 

[Pondwater]

Well, just read a rumor that McCann will be wearing pinstripes pending he passes a physical.... For 5yr/ $85 million.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

^ I have no problem with that. Looks like it's a 5-year deal.

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

Now the Cubs are talking Jeff Samardzija with the Blue Jays.

Story

Whatever you think of Samardzija, when do the fucking Cubs stop trading for young talent and start keeping some players to build around.

What's the target year for being good now, 2015? 2020?

 

[Timby]

The only people who were expecting the Cubs to be not-shitty before 2015 were fools, considering how much of a wasteland the farm system has been (and how quickly Castro was rushed to the majors, which set back development at that position by several years). It takes time to dig out of that kind of a hole; just look at the Mets, who are just now starting to see a little bit of light after a decade of Steve Phillips, Jim Duquette and Omar Minaya setting the organization ablaze (although the Wilpons being morons / douchebags hasn't helped).

Basically, Jim Hendry was doing in Chicago what Rube is doing in Philadelphia right now and what Jack Z has been doing in Seattle for a while -- desperately trying to save his job for a few years and stubborn refusal to accept that the current contention window was closed, resulting in pouring gasoline all over the farm system and setting it on fire through stupid trades and contracts. Epstein and Hoyer have been running the show in Chicago for only two years, and while there are some solid prospects on the way, they still need a lot of time to develop. It's not going to happen overnight.

As for Samardzija, he's Edwin Jackson with worse hair and he wants a pretty big contract, relatively speaking (the offer out to him was 5/35 this spring, and he turned it down); if Toronto wants to give up players of actual value for the privilege of being unable to extend him , I'm all for it.

 

[Yanks]

Well, just read a rumor that McCann will be wearing pinstripes pending he passes a physical.... For 5yr/ $85 million.

YEAH BABY!!!

GREAT SIGN!!

 

[Danny99]

The Jays don't have any sure-fire prospects that are worth a Samardzija type of player. We have a couple really good pitching prospects, trading either of which would be a downgrade.

 

[Timby]

The Twins and Phil Hughes agreed to a 3 / 24 deal.

What the fuck.

 

[Yanks]

The Twins and Phil Hughes agreed to a 3 / 24 deal.

What the fuck.

Yeah, no kidding. I never really gave up on Phil like I did Jaba, he just was never the same again after the surgury.

I'm assuming there has to be some performance clauses in there.

Good kid, hard worker.

 

[Timby]

The Twins and Phil Hughes agreed to a 3 / 24 deal.

What the fuck.

Yeah, no kidding. I never really gave up on Phil like I did Jaba, he just was never the same again after the surgury.

I'm assuming there has to be some performance clauses in there.

Good kid, hard worker.

You can have performance-based bonuses in a contract, but it can't be part of the base salary. That $24 million is guaranteed, which is balls-out insane, considering you can make an argument that he was the worst pitcher in baseball last year. Taking a quick look at B-R, 139 pitchers have thrown 300 or more innings over the past three seasons. Among those 139, Phil Hughes ranks 128th in ERA and 135th in home run rate. If you prefer ERA+, his is 86; if you prefer bWAR, he's at 1.1 for the three seasons. Even in his best season in that span, he was the second most dinger-prone starting pitcher in baseball, only behind Ervin Santana's historically awful season as a launching pad. Long story short is, he sucks.

I don't get the Twins' play here, considering they signed Nolasco just a few days ago. Is it to sign a bunch of mediocre 4/5 starters? OK, that's still insane, but Hughes isn't even mediocre; he's a scrapheap reclamation project (except he's being paid a shitload of money because he used to be a name prospect a million years ago and he had some shiny win totals pitching for a great team).

Between the Twins' deals for Nolasco and Hughes, and the money Vargas got from Kansas City, Rube's signing of Marlon Byrd almost looks shrewd.

Almost.