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STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

It's a good movie (great critical scores from aggregate sites), but the very vocal few who are bashing it could be hurting it. I've read several comments where people reading a review decided not to see it just based on that one bad review (dumb, IMO). Really hope it's a slow earner like The Hobbit.
 
I wish people would make their own minds up and go see it, not base their opinions on the reviews of others.

I would have thought there'd be a shedload of Cumberbatchers who would come along to this movie , despite no prior interest in Star Trek. Indeed, I've read a lot of Facebook comments from people saying Cumberbatch is the only reason they'd be seen dead at a ST film.
 
Yes, the Hobbit was a slow achiever. But it eventually got to a billion dollars. I'm not saying Trek will ever make that kind of money, but we shall wait and see what happens. It isn't even out everywhere, until August.
 
I think there will be a sequel but it'll likely be moved to December where Star Trek belongs anyway. They may hire a new creative team and drop Bad Robot for the next one.
 
I think the problem is that, for many people, the title and trailers maybe made the movie seem a little TOO dark and gritty for their tastes.

With the themes of war and terrorism, it just didn't look nearly as light and fun as the first one.

Of course my theater was full and everybody burst into applause afterwards, so I think there's still a good chance the word of mouth will improve things. And I have NO doubt they'll make a 3rd movie-- it'll just be a lot less dark.
 
I just watched iron man 3. Star Trek has easily got the comic book movies beat at their own game. Star Trek was more fun, had more action and adventure, more explosions and cool stuff, more humour and never once got bogged down. The characters were much better.

Don't understand the appeal of this iron man movie. If the avengers had not come out it would have been lucky to make half of what it is going to make.
 
davejames said:
I think the problem is that, for many people, the title and trailers maybe made the movie seem a little TOO dark and gritty for their tastes.

With the themes of war and terrorism, it just didn't look nearly as light and fun as the first one.

Of course my theater was full and everybody burst into applause afterwards, so I think there's still a good chance the word of mouth will improve things. And I have NO doubt they'll make a 3rd movie-- it'll just be a lot less dark.
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Then WOM will eventually filter through to the masses that it is not quite as grim as they believe and gradually they will turn up and watch the movie. We have to hope it gets good 'legs' to make it to $200m and well beyond.
 
I don't want to be too doomy and gloomy about it yet. I mean, it's only just come out in the US, and it's only been out elsewhere for a week. Let's give it a bit of time. I really hope it is a late bloomer. The good WOM should get more bums in seats. I think they should do a run of TV spots heavily promoting the (insert villain's name here) factor
 
Hopefully, but it's a crowded May. Next week there are THREE movies coming out which could kill Trek.
 
Devon said:
J. Allen said:
I really think you guys are jumping the gun quite a bit. Patience is a virtue.
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EXACTLY.
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Not with a film series that pretty much lives & dies with its opening weekend. Only TVH really demonstrated any legs that I can recall.

When INS underperformed its opening weekend, its budget miraculously dropped from 65-68 mil back down to 58 (which is what it cost BEFORE all the reshoots/additions) by Monday morning, presumably to modulate the disappointment.

F&F will probably make a dent next weekend, don't know about HANGOVER though, or how the cartoon will hit. The week after there is only AFTER EARTH, so Trek did pick a good time to come out in terms of not being immediately swamped by competition.

One thing to keep in mind is that TWOK did a lot less biz than TMP, despite being better received. Could be a lot of mainstream audiences only wanted to see TheAbrams09Thing and look at the sequel as video fodder for home.

Clearly this is not a case like RAMBO, where FIRST BLOOD being freshly on homevid and hitting big there helped make the sequel open & sustain in a huge fashion (God knows why, except for Goldsmith that thing is cesspool.)
 
The below expected results do certainly match up with my experience of seeing the film. Barely anyone in the theatre, no sell outs on Friday as of 6pm. The audience I saw the movie with was dead. No claps, no cheers, no gasps. Certainly no word of mouth was leaving our theatre. Indeed, the procession of people leaving our theatre from the previous screening was something akin to the Batan Death March. People looked disappointed, bored. When someone waiting in the lobby asked them "How was Trek?" One guy just shrugged and said "Don't get your hopes up."
 
LOKAI of CHERON said:
I can't see how you can "factor out" marketing costs? Where would you divert that investment in the accounts? Unless Paramomt have an overall annual marketing budget for all releases, which could be accounted for separately.
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The 'cost' of a film is, unless things have changed drastically this century, what it cost to get ONE answer print (finished print.)

ALL copy costs, both celluloid and digital, are part of the 'prints and advertising' budget, a whole separate set of books.

Breakeven of 2.5 times budget (the cost of one print) has been the generally accepted number, with room for lots of variation. I remember reading an accounting Stanley Kubrick made which showed that it was possible to not break even till 9 times the film's cost was generated!

It could be with advertising costs becoming so huge that all this is being recomputed in a different fashion, but I'm not aware that this is the case. Certainly print costs are dropping because there are so damn many digital screens, but whether that offsets the multitude of ads and their cost (have seen the ship fall into a cloud about 600 times while on yahoo main page in the last day, without clicking anything Trek related), who knows?
 
$75m foreign is already 59% of Star Trek's total foreign gross. We're seeing good improvements abroad, while the domestic numbers are soft. Topsy-turvy for Trek.
 
Maybe we overestimated the demand for Trek? I thought 09 completely destroyed the stigma, and made Trek 'cool' again. I really want this film to succeed, this franchise to succeed. This is so frustrating.

There needs to be a new TV series, so the brand awareness becomes strong again, in between movies
 
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