Seven Gadgets Not to be seen by 2020

[ngc7293]

You want to talk backups? You can get a cheap hard drive with *2 terabytes* of storage for about a hundred bucks. Use THAT as a backup. Apple includes the software as part of OS X!

I don't like the idea of an external backup drive. It's the kind of thing that can be corrupted if someone decides to create a virus (granted you have a Mac so that ain't gonna happen ) and it could get into the backup and do something to the drive. On the other hand the drive could be bad and you could just loose the data. Sure there is data recovery, but it is usually expensive. I imagine SSD drives will be more secure against hardware failure, but they are still expensive.

 

[Crazy Eddie]

You want to talk backups? You can get a cheap hard drive with *2 terabytes* of storage for about a hundred bucks. Use THAT as a backup. Apple includes the software as part of OS X!

I don't like the idea of an external backup drive. It's the kind of thing that can be corrupted if someone decides to create a virus (granted you have a Mac so that ain't gonna happen ) and it could get into the backup and do something to the drive. On the other hand the drive could be bad and you could just loose the data. Sure there is data recovery, but it is usually expensive. I imagine SSD drives will be more secure against hardware failure, but they are still expensive.

I currently own three external hard drives. All three are drives salvaged from old/decrepit computers my neighbors/parents/sister had to have replaced. Therefore the drives didn't cost me a dime and a $20 plug-in kit from ThinkGeek gets alot of bang for its buck.

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I don't like the idea of an external backup drive.

What kind of backup would you prefer to use, then? You do have a backup of some kind, don't you?

You also need a landline for streaming, not everyone has a landline. So what are they supposed to do?

Why would you need a landline? You need *broadband* for streaming. What does a normal phone line have to do with it?

 

[ITL]

Why would you need a landline? You need *broadband* for streaming. What does a normal phone line have to do with it?

Most broadband is ADSL over here, therefore a landline is needed. Cable isn't that widespread.

 

[MacLeod]

Thanks ITHell for clarifying my point, which still leaves the other point. Disposing of physical media i.e. DVD/Blu-ray when NOT everyone has the facility to stream is bad buisness. How does eliminating a potential consumer increase profits?

The simply answer is it generally doesn't, sure the market for DVD/Blu-ray might decline at a greater rate in some markets than others, but that doesn't mean the end of DVD/Blu-ray.

To a certain extend we are moving away from high street stores selling DVD/Blu-ray's to ordering them from online retailers. Online retailers don't have the same overheads as high street retailers so perhaps that is more the reason behind the high street decline in DVD/Blu-ray sales.

 

[ITL]

The UK's interwebs infrastructure has a long way to go before it's ready for streaming to overtake DVD/BluRay. iPlayer alone must eat a lot of available bandwidth at times.

 

[MacLeod]

It'll be something like the back end of 2014 before a signifigant majority of the country has upto 20mb speeds. Some are still only at upto 2mb due to distance from exchange, and there is about zero change that they'll ever get cable. When cable in the UK is generally restricted to large towns and cities.

Faster fiber optic is looking more like the mid 2020's before the majority of the UK will have it. Not looking good for streaming in the UK, so can;t see physical media disapering before 2030 at the earlest, unless some new form of physical media arrives before then.

 

[Brolan]

DVD/Blu-ray will still be around long after 2020, Not everywhere will have superfast broadband by the end of the decade. some areas are still only at 2mb/s at most. Others at upto 8mb/s. Releastically for streaming you are talking a minium of 20 mb/s espically if you have more than 1 computer trying to stream.

I also think the days of "all you can eat" broadband are numbered. When providers start to charge for all the extra streaming data that will slow down (or stop) the shift away from DVD/Blu-ray.

 

[RobertVA]

There still appears to be generous amounts of space devoted to selling DVD and Blu/Ray in discount stores like Target, Wal-mart and even Kmart. While I gather the selection is a bit limited, those disk rental machines are appearing at a lot of grocery and convenience stores. I think the conventional video rental chains got into trouble because they couldn't match the rental rates available through Netflix and the vending machines. The late fee situation was a factor as well.

Tablets have significant problems when used as e-book readers. The LCD displays and the associated back lights make recharges necessary a lot more frequently than the e-ink readers, are less comfortable to read and hard to see when used in brightly lit areas. Phones subject to much e-book use would have similar recharging issues and would require much more frequent, distracting page changes due to the small screens. E-ink displays would have limited application as tablet displays until a version comes out that can be refreshed fast enough to be suitable for games and watching videos.

There will continue to be people who just aren't interested in all the bells and whistles of smart phones, especially considering the associated contracts and additional fees for the required data plans (and taxes on the additional fees). Some people just want to be able to make a phone call if their car breaks down.

 

[Transk53]

Quantum Switches or Organic Substrates.

 

[Nerys Ghemor]

DVD/Blu-ray will still be around long after 2020, Not everywhere will have superfast broadband by the end of the decade. some areas are still only at 2mb/s at most. Others at upto 8mb/s. Releastically for streaming you are talking a minium of 20 mb/s espically if you have more than 1 computer trying to stream.

I also think the days of "all you can eat" broadband are numbered. When providers start to charge for all the extra streaming data that will slow down (or stop) the shift away from DVD/Blu-ray.

Wouldn't people like Hulu, YouTube, and other major streaming services fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening? At least, I would if I were in their shoes; that's a pretty serious threat to their revenue model.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

I assume that the obsolescence of "standalone GPS" is based on its being available as an application on more flexible devices like cell phones. Tom-Tom is not long for this world.

 

[FPAlpha]

I believe that for every new generation of technology/services a full generation needs to grow up with it to make it to everyday use and totally replace the old system.

Case in point.. the emerging cloud services. In itself a good idea.. i can access all my data from wherever i am with any internet connected computer and do my stuff but this technology is still in its infancy.. the infrastructure needs to improve, there are security issues and much else but if this idea hangs on 20 years from now there will be people who grew up with this tech and can't imagine a time where you couldn't grab a buddy's tablet to check up on some private files of yours without going through the hassle of logging into your FTP account or surfing to various related pages like picture collections and such.

A current example would be cell phones.. grab a teenager and take away their cell phone and tell them they could use a phone station (almost extinct now) or the landline at home to talk to their friends (also.. no SMS). They will cry bloody murder since they (and we adults) have gotten used to mobile communication and it has indeed improved our life quite a bit.

So it's hard to predict which tech today will become obsolete 10 years from now.. the most important thing is to judge the tech that's going to replace it to see if it'll be a viable replacement and not some thing tech freaks and marketing "experts" have come up with to make some bucks.

DVD/Blu-ray will still be around long after 2020, Not everywhere will have superfast broadband by the end of the decade. some areas are still only at 2mb/s at most. Others at upto 8mb/s. Releastically for streaming you are talking a minium of 20 mb/s espically if you have more than 1 computer trying to stream.

I also think the days of "all you can eat" broadband are numbered. When providers start to charge for all the extra streaming data that will slow down (or stop) the shift away from DVD/Blu-ray.

Wouldn't people like Hulu, YouTube, and other major streaming services fight tooth and nail to prevent that from happening? At least, I would if I were in their shoes; that's a pretty serious threat to their revenue model.

With videos there is a ceiling as to what resolution it needs to be where the human eye can't perceive any improvement. I don't know if Blu Ray has that resolution yet but it's pretty much the ceiling for me as i can't imagine a better or more lifelike picture. So given the advances of broadband (already LTE phones and lines are appearing on the market offering 100+ mbit for an affordable price) give it 10-20 years and the infrastructure will be there to stream everything with virtually no delay and at reasonable cost.

Providers may try to limit their lines but the first one to do so will also be the first one to fall since people have gotten used to broadband flat rates and will switch providers if their current one starts messing with their products.

 

[Owain Taggart]

I don't get the price/poor argument. It's not like the devices won't get better (meaning cheaper), many stand alone GPS devices are actually usable as multipurpose gadgets, it won't be a long time until dumb phones are just smartphones with features disabled (because it would be cheaper), and tablets are likely to get in the same price spectrum as e-book readers. With all this in mind I fail to see how the existence of poor people will stop the more expensive devices from disappearing?

Sauce for the goose: standalone GPS devices will ALSO get cheaper, enough that you could buy one from Radio Shack for $15 and stick it on a used car you only paid $1200 for. Same again for tablets and readers: by the time you can buy a tablet for $200, the price of an e-reader will have similarly reduced to where you can buy a relatively good one for $50 and still have some basic tablet-like features. And the smartphone thing is just plain wrong: most smartphones are actually fairly expensive to manufacture in the first place and selling them with their features disabled isn't marketable; nobody's going to pat $150 for a prepaid phone that doesn't actually do anything, not while a legitimately STANDARD phone is available down the street for $39.95.

It really boils down to this: there will ALWAYS be a market for low-end products, and there will always be a distinction between the two. The form of the low-end market may change over time, but the low end and high end products rarely overlap. Where there are consumers who are thrifty or cash-strapped, there will exist a market for a "lesser" product that trades functionality for affordability and you will not be able to satisfy that market just by re branding yesterday's high-end products.

This is the reason why the iPod shuffle still exists, why the X-BOX 360 and the PS3 are both sold in various versions with various hard drive sizes and features. It is why after all these years you can STILL buy a TV that isn't HD ready, and why HD-DVD and/or Blu-Ray isn't going to replace DVD any time soon. Not everyone who shops for a steak is going home with a fillet mignion.

Very well said. I agree. There are things that are popular like the iPad, but the reality is that it doesn't fit everyone's needs when something far cheaper would be more realistic. The point is that it's favourable to the market if you have differerent products in different price ranges as there will always be a market for these things regardless of product. You kill that off, and I'm sure you'd see your profit drop. Having only a product at the top price is sure lunacy and it's only asking for slow adoption rate.

For every new product on the market, you could be sure there's someone JUST getting into that older product. I got a cellphone for the first time last year. The model's probably at least 5 years old, but it does what I want just fine, which is making phone calls. For someone who only uses it seldomly, a smart phone would be overkill. I don't need the latest thing, and I know I'm not the only one. I use a prepaid plan, and I've never seen any company offer smartphones as a choice for prepaid. They always have a selection of older models.

 

[ngc7293]

I don't like the idea of an external backup drive.

What kind of backup would you prefer to use, then? You do have a backup of some kind, don't you?

The current TB drives don't have off switches and that is one security problem. Another is that even with a surge protector you could get a near by lightning strike that would jump your protection. I have an external drive and the USB port burned out on it. Luckily I was able to salvage the drive and put it in another housing. Both had off switches.

I save everything to CD and or DVD. The life span of these disks is suppose to be about 5 years, but I have a CD-R that is older than that. Unfortunately no one has come up with a better way to save data.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

To anyone predicting the disappearance of things: How do you feel about the disappearance of pocket watches (being replaced by the wristwatch) which are now suddenly back? I even carry mine on a chain! Granted, I was thinking of buying a bluetooth wristwatch to replace my pocket watch, but so far they don't seem that attractive.

Some things are the way they are because they make sense, so even if something seems to make more sense for the moment, that doesn't mean that the original is totally forgotten. Things don't stop making sense just because you've developed new ones (which are more often than not just like some of the old ones).

In fact, my gut feeling tells me that some of the following will become popular or very popular again:
1. The car phone
2. The watch that needs winding
3. Walkie talkies
4. The sextant
5. The sun clock
6. Pagers
7. Tape
8. People riding on horseback
9. Airships
10. The instant camera
11. The tricorder from TOS

Spoiler: WTF?

1: When the car computer gets internet and integrated bluetooth headset, wouldn't you use it as a standalone Internet phone as well? I know I would.
2: The emergency chargers that already exist might just suddenly become popular.
3: VHF ad-hoc WiFi + link-local VoIP FTW
4 and 5: Accelerometer + very good phone camera = all kinds of pointless apps that might happen to come in handy. Plus, navigation in deep space might be a selling point even if nobody ever uses it.
6: I'd like to be able to disable just voice calls. A lot of teens seem to be quite willing to do the same. And I don't think people often going to the cinema would mind the idea.
7: Always good for backups
8: Need a good off-road vehicle? I bet running robots will be able to do it better than a car.
9: Airships are cool. Nuff said.
10: When does my smartphone get a printer?
11: I love classic 23rd-century design. Black finish, silver highlights...

But the only thing that you can predict safely is that you'd have less things doing more.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

This thread reminds me of this story. In summary: no invention ever disappears completely. The items mentioned in the OP might become less prevalent, but they will never go away entirely. Admittedly, items dependent on external technology (like GPS satellites) may become useless if we ever let the GPS network fall apart, but the technology would then be replaced by something substantially similar.

The assumptions in the original list do seem to revolve around there being no poor people or used items in the future, which is absurd.

 

[Transk53]

Cloud in principle is a good idea for companies that need Server space, but are unable to afford the Hardware including the storage. However, giving a hosting company your entire data and dump wherever, is a stupid idea and many IT managers will not care about having a redundant back up. Just in case the Cloud falls over or some data integrity issue. More to the thought, company struggling for money and Server time not paid for. Issue after issue will arise.

And of course, the above posts listing infrastructure especially in blighty. Good ole BT could have started upgrading to FO some twenty years ago, but as usual, politics and money got in the way and LLU has taken the biscuit. That should have been twenty years ago when the investment was needed, imho

 

[Crazy Eddie]

In fact, my gut feeling tells me that some of the following will become popular or very popular again:
1. The car phone

My dad's car has an OnStar subscription that lets him voice dial any number he wants without using a cell phone. It's supposed to be for emergencies, but for some reason they gave him 200 minutes a month.

3. Walkie talkies

Was that ever OUT? Security guards and police officers still use them, and Nextel used to have that annoying/chirping walkie-talkie thing.

4. The sextant

Some spaceships still use these.

6. Pagers

Doctors still use these, they never stopped.

8. People riding on horseback

Cops still use these. So do rich people.

9. Airships

Other than the Goodyear blimp?

10. The instant camera

Polaroids, you mean? If they still sold film for it I would buy one.

11. The tricorder from TOS

iPod has an app for that.

But the only thing that you can predict safely is that you'd have less things doing more.

True that.

 

[Transk53]

But the only thing that you can predict safely is that you'd have less things doing more.

True that.

Unless a person happens to be a Technophile