The Australian Election Thread
- Thread starter Australis
- Start date
I'm not sure that people realise that how nasty the taliban are. Saddam was a nasty piece of work but compared to the taliban he was cute n cuddly.
Why wouldn't we realise how nasty the Taliban are. It was less then ten years ago that they were publicly executing people in the football stadium in Kabul, and it is no secret that they are still killing people today.
Becasue people would be supporting the mission to wipe those fuckers off the face of the earth.
Canada has lost over 150 soldiers in Afghanistan and while the level of support for the mission is dropping it's nowhere near what the ABC poll indicates for Australia.
I am not sure if he will be called an independent but he certainly isn't being called a member of the Coalition. He has stated that he will be sitting on the crossbenches.
It seems that the final result will be
72 Labor
72 Liberal
Tony Crook
4 Independents
1 Green
Unless the Liberals can get 4 of those on the crossbenches to join them I believe that the Governor-General will have to give the caretaker government (i.e Labor) the first option to form a government.
Which seems to be what the Coalition wants!
I see an Abbott government as potentially longer lived, with four conservative leaning independents more likely to get things through for the Libs. They would need Wilkie or Bandt to accept the speaker's chair, though.
But, it seems the Libs want the ALP to have first go at this, sit back and watch it all fall apart, and romp it home in an election in a few months.
Surely they don't think they'll be up against Gillard again? That's the only thing we can be sure of : she won't be back.
The only seat in the parliament in doubt is the last Victorian Senate seat, where Fielding is slugging it out with a climate change denier and a member of the DLP
With the Greens having the final say in the Senate, how do you reconcile their views with those of the three rural independents, and the stridently anti mining tax Mr. Crook?
What a mess!
I see an Abbott government as potentially longer lived, with four conservative leaning independents more likely to get things through for the Libs. They would need Wilkie or Bandt to accept the speaker's chair, though.
But, it seems the Libs want the ALP to have first go at this, sit back and watch it all fall apart, and romp it home in an election in a few months.
Surely they don't think they'll be up against Gillard again? That's the only thing we can be sure of : she won't be back.
The only seat in the parliament in doubt is the last Victorian Senate seat, where Fielding is slugging it out with a climate change denier and a member of the DLP
With the Greens having the final say in the Senate, how do you reconcile their views with those of the three rural independents, and the stridently anti mining tax Mr. Crook?
What a mess!
Which seems to be what the Coalition wants!
I see an Abbott government as potentially longer lived, with four conservative leaning independents more likely to get things through for the Libs. They would need Wilkie or Bandt to accept the speaker's chair, though.
But, it seems the Libs want the ALP to have first go at this, sit back and watch it all fall apart, and romp it home in an election in a few months.
Surely they don't think they'll be up against Gillard again? That's the only thing we can be sure of : she won't be back.
The only seat in the parliament in doubt is the last Victorian Senate seat, where Fielding is slugging it out with a climate change denier and a member of the DLP
With the Greens having the final say in the Senate, how do you reconcile their views with those of the three rural independents, and the stridently anti mining tax Mr. Crook?
What a mess!
Fielding has lost.
The family first fuckwit has thrown a little tanty and said he's going be obstructionist in the senate until his term expires July next year if a labor minority government is formed - that means that in theory the senate could block supply as it did in 1975 but I'm not so sure it would work this time.
The problem with the 4 independants is the National Party - Truss and Joyce already shot their mouths off at two of the independants, Crook says he will only sit in the Nationals party room not the coalition one (probably a bit of self presevation there given he knocked off wilson tuckey).
I haven't seen any post election polling but it would be intersting to see who is preferred P.M and whether people would change their votes. Abbott hasn't done much to endear himself and with stuff like the costing of the coalitions policy costings I think if the election were held to day that Labor would probably win and Abbott would be done as Coalition leader.
Wouldn't be so sure that it the coalition would romp in at new election a few months down the track especailly if they forced it.
It is possible that if Abbott makes it hard for a Labor Party to govern many people who voted might return to vote Labor. There wasn't a large swing to the Liberals in this election, there was a large swing towards to Greens and in Denison towards an independent. In another election Denison would either retain the independent or return to Labor.
Also I believe that the Independents and the Green candidate want to look good to the public. Labor can (for the most part) count on support from Wilkie and Brandt (which brings then up to 74). Rob Overshott has a history of voting for Labor (he has voted on Labor side 32, and the Liberal side 9 times) and he is a strong supporter of stable government.
That leaves Tony Crook, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter. I think Katter is unpredictable but the other two seem more sensible and want is best for their electorate. If there is another election they will probably lose the balance of power which they won't see as being positive thing for the people who voted for them.
Also I believe that the Independents and the Green candidate want to look good to the public. Labor can (for the most part) count on support from Wilkie and Brandt (which brings then up to 74). Rob Overshott has a history of voting for Labor (he has voted on Labor side 32, and the Liberal side 9 times) and he is a strong supporter of stable government.
That leaves Tony Crook, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter. I think Katter is unpredictable but the other two seem more sensible and want is best for their electorate. If there is another election they will probably lose the balance of power which they won't see as being positive thing for the people who voted for them.
Agree that at any potential mid-term election that voters will come back strongly to the majors in the hope of regaining some stability.
Anyway, now that the lower house seat count is done and dusted, the independents need to make a decision quickly, and the next step is to see how any arrangement plays out in parliament.
Anyway, now that the lower house seat count is done and dusted, the independents need to make a decision quickly, and the next step is to see how any arrangement plays out in parliament.
The ABC had a story that an opinion poll was taken for each of the electorates for the independants above and the overwhelming wish was for them to support the coalition.
Which could backfire on the voters if the coalition is supported and it results in another election in the very near future.
Tony Windsor also claimed he's received a very abusive phone call from a senior Liberal Party figure but he's not naming names.
A poll says voters in the independents' electorates expect them to line up with the Coalition.
I doubt this poll a little, as it's from Newspoll, and I'm not sure of their independence But it does put the cat among the pigeons a bit.. They can't support Labor and keep their electorate on side, and they themselvves don't want to side with the Lib/Nats. So they either have to persuade their electorate they are right, or side with the Coalition, or lose their seats at the next election, which may be soon and may deliver those seats to the Right.
So, we should definitely keep this thread (and the one in TNZ) rolling, we live in interesting times.
ETA: Marc and I were writing at the same time. Great minds and all that.
I doubt this poll a little, as it's from Newspoll, and I'm not sure of their independence But it does put the cat among the pigeons a bit.. They can't support Labor and keep their electorate on side, and they themselvves don't want to side with the Lib/Nats. So they either have to persuade their electorate they are right, or side with the Coalition, or lose their seats at the next election, which may be soon and may deliver those seats to the Right.
So, we should definitely keep this thread (and the one in TNZ) rolling, we live in interesting times.
ETA: Marc and I were writing at the same time. Great minds and all that.
Rii
Rear Admiral
I don't recall how I wandered into such an exciting topic, but I've just been reading about agricultural support in OECD nations and it turns out that Australia supports its agricultural sector to a lesser degree than any other OECD member bar New Zealand:
Obviously the numbers themselves don't tell the story, and that's without even going into the whole protectionism vs. free trade debate, but I nevertheless found it interesting in light of Bob Katter's 'neglected rural Australia' schtick.
Obviously the numbers themselves don't tell the story, and that's without even going into the whole protectionism vs. free trade debate, but I nevertheless found it interesting in light of Bob Katter's 'neglected rural Australia' schtick.
It looks like the major parties and the three Independents have agreed that one of the Independents will be the Speaker (let us hope it's not Bob Katter). It seems that the Independents will be announcing tomorrow which party they will support.
Crook has just announced he'll support Abbott, so we're at ALP 74 Coalition 73, and still the whole thing rests with the decision of the "3 amigos", finally expected tomorrow.
Word is that the Libs think they've missed their chance, but who knows? It's been one crazy election.
So what happens if the amigos split 2-1 for the Libs, leaving it 75-75? We're completely screwed then
Anyway, let's get this over with...please?
Word is that the Libs think they've missed their chance, but who knows? It's been one crazy election.
So what happens if the amigos split 2-1 for the Libs, leaving it 75-75? We're completely screwed then
Anyway, let's get this over with...please?