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‘Running Man’ & ‘Now You See Me 3’ Have To Contend With ‘Predator: Badlands’ At Weekend Box Office

Paramount’s $110M redo of the 1987 Arnold Schwarzenegger movie The Running Man, this time starring Glen Powell, is targeting a No. 1 win with around $20M, but it’s facing the heat carried by the second weekend of 20th Century Studio’s Predator: Badlands which looks to settle around $16M, -60%.

What could keep Predator: Badlands in a better-than-expected B.O. range is that it carries the best CinemaScore ever for the franchise (A-), as well as a high PostTrak definite recommend of 78%. Also, working in Badlands advantage is its PG-13 rating to Running Man‘s R rating. Badlands cleared $5.7M on Veterans Day Tuesday for a running five-day total of $49.2M.

Both are heavy male movies, though, Badlands second best demo last weekend was women over 25 at 22%. Of Running Man‘s 3,400 locations, 1,000 are premium large format screens. Previews start Thursday at 7PM.


Running Man, directed by Baby Driver‘s Edgar Wright, based on the 1982 novel written by Stephen King and published under the pseudonym Richard Bachman, follows Powell as working class dad Ben Richards who is in a murderous race set in a near dystopian future to win $1 billion to save his sick daughter. Over 30 days, contestants are hunted by assassins and must survive.

Looking to be a date movie is Lionsgate’s $90M+ threequel, Now You See Me: Now You Don’t about the Horseman magicians who reteam for a diamond heist as they target dangerous criminals. The range is wild for Now You See Me 3, between high teens and low $20Ms, but tracking isn’t betting on a No. 1 win. Presales between Running Man and Now You See Me 3 are quite close. The second Now You See Me movie was in 2016 which had an opening of $22.3M for final domestic of $65M for a global take of $334.8M. While Lionsgate sells foreign, that’s where this franchise has rallied. But note, $97M of the last film’s global haul was made in China. Given how Hollywood movies have been largely soft in the Middle Kingdom post pandemic, don’t expect this threequel to fare as well. Previews start at 2PM on Thursday.


NEON’s third Oz Perkins genre title, Keeper, is the third wide entry at 1,950 theaters with an eye at low single digits. Bill as a throwback to 1970s horror films like Rosemary’s Baby, Keeper follows a couple during a romantic anniversary trip to a secluded cabin which turns sinister when a dark presence reveals itself. They’re forced to confront the property’s haunting past. Tatiana Maslany and Rossif Sutherland star. While Perkins’ previous two movies, Longlegs (NEON’s record opener at $22.4M) and The Monkey ($14M) opened higher, the P&A spend here is well under Longlegs’ less than $10M, hence in accordance with the production cost of the movie, which was $6M we hear, and as well as its $4M global pick-up by NEON. First choice is best with women under 25 on tracking.
 
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None of their currently announced films are even remotely interesting to me with the exception of Scream 7. And that will be a watch on streaming film for me.
Basically they are almost pretty much remakes or sequels...and not of stuff I was super excited about.
 

SATURDAY AM: Two franchises, one that’s 12 years old (Now You See Me) and another a reboot of a 38-year old Arnold Schwarzenegger, Stephen King sci-fi movie from hipster filmmaker Edgar Wright (The Running Man) are squaring off this weekend with the former the stronger with an estimated $21M-$24M opening. Lionsgate’s Now You See Me: Now You Don’t is the surprise leader this weekend in a pre-pre-Thanksgiving frame. Friday for Now You See Me 3 is figured at $8.4M. The rainy weather on the west coast can only help business, I’m told.

Really, few saw this coming a few weeks ago on tracking; this magician heist movie expected to clear in the high teens, so the fact that anticipation has ratcheted up in recent days for this threequel; let’s give props to Lionsgate. When it comes to sequels to semi-beloved franchises, absence does make the heart grow fonder, and the last Now You See Me was nine years ago.
Meanwhile, tracking pinned No. 1 with a north of $20M start for Running Man. Momentum slipped in recent days.


That sequel was huge in China back when Hollywood movies made an impact there, grossing $97M. So far, Now You See Me 3 in early China box office has grossed close to $16M. The first movie made $23M there. Lionsgate has further capitalized on the Now You See Me brand: they’re opening a magic stage show at the Sydney Opera House in December before embarking on a global tour.


Now You See Me 3 gets a B+ CinemaScore (previous two movies received A-s), but it has a higher definite recommend than Paramount’s Running Man, 63% to 58%. Women are driving ticket sales to the Ruben Fleischer-directed caper at 54% (versus the R-rated Glen Powell Running Man at 36% female). Definite recommend among women is higher for Now You See Me 3 over Running Man, 68% to 62%. If rain in LA drives folks to cinemas, the upside on Running Man is $18M start (though some believe it’s around $16M) in 2nd place after a $6.5M Friday/preview. The redo gets a B+ CinemaScore, same as the original 1987 movie.


An eyebrow raiser: Now You See Me 3 doesn’t have Imax, rather PLFs which are contributing 20% of the weekend. Even play across the country but better in the South, South Central and Mountain areas. AMC Empire in NYC is the highest location for the Jesse Eisenberg-Woody Harrelson-Isla Fisher-Dave Franco ensemble with close to $30K since Thursday night. Diversity demos are 38% Caucasian, 26% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Asian American and 14% Black. Sixty-six percent are 18-34 with 69% under 35.

You would think the Powell of it all would have stolen all the female moviegoers from Now You See Me 3, but alas no. Running Man leans male at 64% to 36% female, with 46% over 35. Men over 25 make up 47% of the audience, while women over 25 are 27% (33% for NYSM3, 16% men under 25, and 10% women under 25 vs. 21% for NYSM3). Diversity demos are 53% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 13% Black and 7% Asian American.

Imax and PLFs are delivering 46% of Running Man‘s till with an even play across the country and no region over-indexing. AMC Lincoln Square is the pic’s highest grossing venue so far with close to $39K.

Third goes to the second of 20th Century Studios’ Predator: Badlands with a second Friday of $3.5M (-78%) for a $13M-$14M take (-66%) for a running cume on the high end of $67.3M at 3,725 locations. This one was hit harder than expected. Many were expecting word of mouth to carry it. There’s still hope for legs.

Fourth is Paramount’s fourth weekend of Constantin’s Colleen Hoover feature take of Regretting You at 2,709 theaters with $1.1M yesterday and $4M for the weekend, -40%, for a total of $44.9M by EOD Sunday.

NEON’s third Oz Perkins movie Keeper at 1,950 gets a D+ CinemaScore; not good for any movie despite horror averaging between B and C grades. Yesterday was $1.05M including previews for an estimated $2.6M opening. Why is the lowest of all the NEON Perkins movies? When it comes to low-budget genre, many studios aim to spend low in sync with a title’s budget, and this was very low at $6M production cost, $4M global acquisition. Given their low overhead, part of NEON’s business plan is opening movies in the single digit range, read the Sydney Sweeney horror movie Immaculate at a $5.3M start was huge for them given their economics (you can say the same about Bleecker Street post Covid business-wise).

Overall weekend for all titles is currently figured at $75M, +7% from a year ago when Amazon MGM Studios launched the original Dwayne Johnson-Chris Evans holiday action movie Red One to $32.1M.
 
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I looked at the comments under the video and I think many people don't know that the actors are contractually obligated to do all kinds of promotion for the movies they star in.
 
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