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Black Widow anticipation thread

Grendel's Brains said:
^I'm not saying foreign box office is unimportant or incapable of carrying a movie, even to a sequel. The point is simply that foreign box office brings less money per ticket than domestic box office to the studio, so a movie that does 500m overseas and 400m domestic is just not as big a success for the studio as a movie that does 500m domestic and 400m overseas. 900m worldwide is never a thing to sneeze at, obviously, but not every 900m is equal.

And in the case of Tenet specifically, we're talking about 50 million domestic over seven weeks (compare that to Interstellar or Inception, which are the obvious benchmarks for Tenet, which both made around or above 50m domestic on their opening weekend). And in the same period of time, about 280m foreign, which is much better than the domestic, but is not as good for the studio as it would've been to have 280m domestic.

And even without being able to say exactly how much that 280m foreign really translates to compared to the domestic, the movie still hasn't even broken even worldwide. 205m budget means it needs roughly 410m gross to actually start making a profit.
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Takeboo said:
No, but Disney also doesn't have to share the revenue with theaters when they release on Disney+, so a movie wouldn't need to make close to a billion for Disney to generate the same profit. In the US the studios get about 50% from the box office, less overseas, between 20 and 40%, let's say 30%. For simplicity's sake let's assume the studio gets 40% of the worldwide box office, so from a billion dollar box office only 400 million go to Disney and that's a slightly more reasonable number, still not easy to reach with streaming but slightly more realistic than a billion.
And depending on how long the pandemic lasts at some point some money via streaming will be be more desirable than zero money from the box office, the studios can't sit on all of their big movies forever.


It made 280 million overseas, that's not even enough to cover the production budget if we assume WB got about $85 million from that plus about $25 million from the US. Tenet's theatrical release was a financial disaster, there's no way to call it anything else.
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Oh, I didn't realize they got less money from foreign markets, I thought they got the same as from the US.
 
I was really hoping by the time stuff like Black Widow was supposed we'd be at a point things would have improved enough to keep their release dates, but I guess we're not that lucky.
 
Just release it to Disney+ already. They’ll make more money from subscribers and whatever fee they’ll charge for it (more than $0 revenue) than if they keep not releasing it ($0 revenue)
 
ITDUDE said:
Just release it to Disney+ already. They’ll make more money from subscribers and whatever fee they’ll charge for it (more than $0 revenue) than if they keep not releasing it ($0 revenue)
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Presumably, Mulan didn't do so well on Disney+ otherwise, they'd have already done this with Black Widow. And given the recent fiasco with Warner Bros it wouldn't surprise me if the studios have become fearful of streaming the tentpole blockbusters.
 
Mulan was a huge hit and made a shit load of money, but as we saw with the WB stuff, there are a lot factors that go into the decision to release these movie online than just the money they'll make. This has a lot more big name actors than Mulan did, so there are probably a lot more back end deals and things like that involved.
 
There’s probably a bit of prestige involved too - while BW won’t be the first female-toplined MCU solo film, Natasha has been a part of the MCU since Iron Man 2 & they may feel that it’s a little disrespectful to give her long-awaited solo film a non-cinematic release. Purely speculative on my part, of course.
 
I think the unique problem here is that it's not just about delaying one movie; it's delaying all the movies (and possibly some of the Disney+ shows as well) that follow it too.

If the vaccine roll out was going at a decent pace (which is not a problem just contained to the US by any means) there would be some hope but I think it's going to have to end up Premium VOD and to whatever cinemas are open.
 
I understand Disney wants to make a $1B+ for any and all their movies, but this isn’t 2019 anymore, no movies will make $1b or even half that. Not in 2021, that’s for sure. I have a neighbor who is a vivid pro-vaxer who’ll get one as soon as she can get one. But she ain’t stepping near any theater this year. And she’s is a freaking MCU super fan. She’s not only one like that.
 
I might or might not go to a theater this year, 2 months after getting my vaccine. Depends on the national situation.

EDIT: actually depends more on the local situation.
 
JD said:
Mulan was a huge hit and made a shit load of money, but as we saw with the WB stuff, there are a lot factors that go into the decision to release these movie online than just the money they'll make. This has a lot more big name actors than Mulan did, so there are probably a lot more back end deals and things like that involved.
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Are there any documentable evidence? Any way to quantify Mulan being the cause of any rise in DisneyPlus subscriptions
 
StCoop said:
I think the unique problem here is that it's not just about delaying one movie; it's delaying all the movies (and possibly some of the Disney+ shows as well) that follow it too.
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And yet, because it's a prequel, while it almost certainly sets up some elements for future movies, it's probably unusually easy to shift its release date around. Even if it introduces a character who will appear in, say, the Hawkeye show, that character will probably make plenty of sense there, too, so it's not a big deal if they're introduced there instead of Black Widow. And moving BW to (for example) Christmas could well increase its theatrical revenue several times over.
 
I thought I remembered at least seeing some approximate numbers a few days after it was released, and I thought they were pretty high.
 
Well, "No Time To Die" is officially moving to October. So either BW goes to Disney+ or it moves into "Eternals" spot and everything else gets delayed.

Again.
 
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