If Star Trek Beyond fails

[The Transformed Man]

Given it's release schedule, and the relatively smooth sailing the film has, in terms of box office competition, Star Trek Beyond should do well. But it really depends on the film's promotion, and the quality of the film.

However, I have to wonder if the reality is the Trek franchise box office can basically expect to top out at around $250 million domestically, and another $200 million or so from international markets? Those numbers are fine, but Paramount may need to revise their own expectations, and adjust budgets accordingly.

I'm just not sure there's a scenario out there where Trek can bring in $800 million - $1 billion worldwide like Paramount expects.

 

[BillJ]

I'm just not sure there's a scenario out there where Trek can bring in $800 million - $1 billion worldwide like Paramount expects.

Which I think is a fair question to ask. I wish I had the answer.

 

[Phantom]

I submit that the grouping of Trek fans in general is far too far to the left of where it should be on that diagram.

I'd like to see anyone prove otherwise.

 

[BillJ]

I submit that the grouping of Trek fans in general is far too far to the left of where it should be on that diagram.

I'd like to see anyone prove otherwise.

Since you're the one putting forth the idea, the burden of proof is on you.

 

[The Transformed Man]

I'm just not sure there's a scenario out there where Trek can bring in $800 million - $1 billion worldwide like Paramount expects.

Which I think is a fair question to ask. I wish I had the answer.

Michael Bay's Transformer/Star Trek crossover film

 

[JWPlatt]

I'm just not sure there's a scenario out there where Trek can bring in $800 million - $1 billion worldwide like Paramount expects.

Which I think is a fair question to ask. I wish I had the answer.

Michael Bay's Transformer/Star Trek crossover film

More underwear, and nudity (available on DVD for the 'R' version).

 

[thumbtack]

Fans of only PrimeTrek, which is a much smaller group than those who like NuTrek.

Yes, but I was told they are much more important than everyone else because they are more intense.

Or something.

 

[Franklin]

Given it's release schedule, and the relatively smooth sailing the film has, in terms of box office competition, Star Trek Beyond should do well. But it really depends on the film's promotion, and the quality of the film.

However, I have to wonder if the reality is the Trek franchise box office can basically expect to top out at around $250 million domestically, and another $200 million or so from international markets? Those numbers are fine, but Paramount may need to revise their own expectations, and adjust budgets accordingly.

I'm just not sure there's a scenario out there where Trek can bring in $800 million - $1 billion worldwide like Paramount expects.

Agreed. It's what makes Trek prone to threads like this.

Trek is not critic proof, like some franchise are. If STB were out now and scored only 53 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, as "Minions" did, it's impossible to believe it would have revenue of $300 million in the U.S. and $600 million internationally, for $900 million so far, as "Minions" does.

In box office, "Star Trek" is like a celebrity who is just good enough to make the "A list" to get into the swanky restaurants easily, but not "A list" enough to be seated at the good tables once in.

 

[Crazy Eddie]

I submit that the grouping of Trek fans in general is far too far to the left of where it should be on that diagram.

I submit that it's not.

I'd like to see anyone prove otherwise.

BillJ already did:

Are you? It's perfectly possible to like both, but does the position "I like both" truly represent that mainstream Trek fan position? The presence of a opposing sentiments across large stretches of the media say otherwise.

Does the people of this board represent the "mainstream Trek fan position"? Because the people here overwhelmingly liked both Abrams films. Into Darkness poll below.

Where do we look for "mainstream Trek fans" and their positions on these movies?

75% of TrekBBS users rated it a B- or better. And users on this forum are, on the whole, FAR more critical of the reboot movies -- and of Star Trek in general, actually -- than the general population.

 

[Crazy Eddie]

In box office, "Star Trek" is like a celebrity who is just good enough to make the "A list" to get into the swanky restaurants easily, but not "A list" enough to be seated at the good tables once in.

So Star Trek is Chris Tucker?

 

[Franklin]

In box office, "Star Trek" is like a celebrity who is just good enough to make the "A list" to get into the swanky restaurants easily, but not "A list" enough to be seated at the good tables once in.

So Star Trek is Chris Tucker?

Could be. You sent me to Google. Although that may be saying more about me than it does about Mr. Tucker.

 

[wulfio]

I'd say Armie Hammer. Tucker isn't very relevant now.

 

[eyeresist]

Michael Bay's Transformer/Star Trek crossover film

I think I would rather see an Avengers crossover.

It's funny, they have both the Klingons and the Borg in their pocket if they ever want to make an awesome war movie, but for some reason no one has yet had the nerve.

 

[Phantom]

I submit that the grouping of Trek fans in general is far too far to the left of where it should be on that diagram.

I'd like to see anyone prove otherwise.

Since you're the one putting forth the idea, the burden of proof is on you.

The continuous existence of a large and vocal group critical of JJ Trek proves my claim.

And before you come back with "Internet fans", I would remind you that as far as that is concerned you can kiss all the JJ supporters good-bye on the same basis.

 

[Dukhat]

The continuous existence of a large and vocal group critical of JJ Trek proves my claim.

Please point out to us where this large and vocal group of critical JJ persons actually are.

 

[wulfio]

Just as a subjective observation, I think the supporters and critics are probably pretty equal, or more equal than people think.

Most of the people that I know that go to see the JJ movies don't actually care about Franchise one way or the other. They're just going for a summer blockbuster. So the success of the movies isn't really indicative of anything in my opinion. Those that do like Trek, are pretty much split on the reboot. And polls rarely prove anything. Get a national census and then I'll pay attention.

 

[martok2112]

I submit that the grouping of Trek fans in general is far too far to the left of where it should be on that diagram.

I'd like to see anyone prove otherwise.

Since you're the one putting forth the idea, the burden of proof is on you.

The continuous existence of a large and vocal group critical of JJ Trek proves my claim.

.

Which apparently is still very much a minority when compared to the continual existence of pretty much everyone else that enjoys JJ Abrams' Star Trek films.

 

[SPCTRE]

This is awesome.

It's beautiful.

 

[wulfio]

Since you're the one putting forth the idea, the burden of proof is on you.

The continuous existence of a large and vocal group critical of JJ Trek proves my claim.

.

Which apparently is still very much a minority when compared to the continual existence of pretty much everyone else that enjoys JJ Abrams' Star Trek films.

I'm sure like everyone else, you have friends that aren't Star Trek fans, but still go to see JJ Trek films because it's just a fun, non inclusive blockbuster.

My friend who will see any trash, while on a date, is not someone I would include in the Trek fans who support JJ demographic. That's the major movie going audience that studio's target and should not be used in your argument.

 

[JWPlatt]

I submit that the grouping of Trek fans in general is far too far to the left of where it should be on that diagram.

I'd like to see anyone prove otherwise.

Since you're the one putting forth the idea, the burden of proof is on you.

The continuous existence of a large and vocal group critical of JJ Trek proves my claim.

And before you come back with "Internet fans", I would remind you that as far as that is concerned you can kiss all the JJ supporters good-bye on the same basis.

I've been critical of JJ Trek, but I'm not convinced I'm a "large group." I'm an anecdote. But if it's true, you hurt the argument with your current method of unsubstantiated insistence unless and until it can be supported with statistically meaningful analysis, perhaps using primary documentation. And a claim of common sense just isn't enough here when faced with JJ's commercial success (i.e., the number of people who pay into it). You'll need to show the "large and vocal group." I still haven't seen it. All I've seen is bitter complaints (like mine) about lens flare. And my complaint about feeling disconnected with the alternate reality is unique to myself so far.