X-Files Bombs

Discussion in 'Science Fiction & Fantasy' started by mswood, Jul 26, 2008.

  1. mswood

    mswood Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Just because you generate (lets use the Serenity example) 38.8 million in theatre sales world wide on a production budget of 39 million dollars.

    It will earn (in the US it really can vary overseas) only around 55% (now that can vary for films that have the ability to get a higher upfront rate, I can't see Serenity or X-Files being able to do so, though X-Files would have a better shot by far then Serenity) of that for the studio (and thats assuming the studio doesn't share distribution with another for either US or overseas ticket sales).

    And the 10 million marketing figure most likely refers to only US marketing (unknown if that includes the print cost, some times yes sometimes no). It is exceptional rare that world wide marketing numbers are released (they are in the same place as world wide dvd sales, rentals and tv rights that studios seem to never have open accounting practices with).


    So lets just pretend that the 10 million is both marketing and print cost (quite possible) and that it is both US and Overseas cost (highly doubtful). That means it full cost was 49 (and again this is highly suspect). At 49 million Serenity to break even (at the theaters) would need to generate roughly nearly 90 million dollars in ticket sales.

    Basically its theater run covered at very best half of all its cost. It would then fall to its dvd sales/rentals, tv rights, ect to generate the remaining.

    Now again the X-files in in better shape (though again in the industries eyes and currently the studios its a bomb) with a 30 million budget and most likely an equally low US marketing campaign. It will need to generate less total revenue. With it already exceeding the overseas total of Serenity and with several major markets left (which will take months to hit). X-files (working under the same assumptions of world wide marketing and print costs) will come much closer to breaking even solely off of its theatrical run.
     
  2. Joby

    Joby Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    They did not engergize the fanbase enough, and truthfully The X-Files base is not and never has been as loyal, passionate and built in to go as the Trek base has always been.

    Not to mention the changing landscape of television drama over the past 10 years. X-Files ruled this genre back in the 90s, but today Mulder and Scully seem a bit dated next to Heroes, Lost and 24. Despite the fact that they were in many ways the ones the paved the way for those subsequent shows.
     
  3. sidious618

    sidious618 Admiral Admiral

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    I can't say that Heroes, LOST or 24 has created such alive characters in the public eye (I'm not saying they don't, LOST is vey good at that, but they are not as well known).
     
  4. payndz201

    payndz201 Commodore Commodore

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    Just looking at the figures on the-numbers.com, Aliens Vs Predator: Requiem made less at the US box office than The X Files ($14.9m to $17m), but has so far made another $26 million+ on DVD, bringing its combined gross to $40 million. If X Files performs similarly on DVD, and there's no reason to think it shouldn't, it'll probably end up making Fox a modest profit. That's in the US alone: add 50% to 100% more for the eventual overseas take.

    Hardly blockbuster performance, but Fox may yet ask for another movie eventually - if the budget is kept low and, I'd imagine, Carter is asked to make a more overtly commercial movie. Maybe we'll see the werewolf they used for the fake spoilers after all!
     
  5. Trippy

    Trippy NaNoWriMo Victim Admiral

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    Nah we need the 2012 storyline :techman:
     
  6. sidious618

    sidious618 Admiral Admiral

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    Absolutely. And I can see it being done on a small budget if they work at it hard enough.
     
  7. mswood

    mswood Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Well unfortunately those numbers aren't accurate.

    AvP: Requiem made a 41.8 million US and 87 million overseas for a total of nearly 129 million. No budget info is available, so its hard to guess how well it did or didn't do in the theaters.

    But it did significantly less then the 1st AvP which grossed 171 million ww on a budget of 60 million.
     
  8. Foxy

    Foxy Lieutenant Junior Grade Red Shirt

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    I only just got to see the film last night, I was going to go this weekend, however it seems to be the last night of showings tonight in this area. I think that was about a 2 week run in the UK :(.

    I enjoyed it and think it deserved to do better. Advertising was terrible, as an x-files fan you would have thought I would be a prime target for adverts and all I saw was one TV add randomly. If I hadn’t know it was coming I could well have missed it.

    I really hope they get another film the 2012 storey needs to be told.
     
  9. tharpdevenport

    tharpdevenport Admiral Admiral

    I LOVE passing this around. At one of the film score boards I read, an average joe member like myself, posted this well written and thought out review of the films which I feels captures it perfectly:

     
  10. mswood

    mswood Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    ^ Yeah, but the problem with that review is it only focuses on the character aspect of the two leads (the part of the film that I do find successful with the exclusion of the tag after the credits which seems to actually be a reverse of the message of the film, since it plays directly into what Mulder offers in giving up hope).

    But the driving plot is exceptionally weak. The production values aren't that good (and you can be low budget and have good production values), the direction and cinematography aren't strong. The acting is of tv quality. The movie has huge flaws that has absolutely nothing to do with guns or explosions (as someone who prefers character pieces far, far more then Summer films). But I want good solid character pieces and this isn't one of them. Not by a long shot.
     
  11. Trent Roman

    Trent Roman Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    ^ Actually, the problem with the review is that he's pretty clearly reviewing the films of the basis of their compatability with his preferred philosophy rather than their respective constituent elements. Seems 'moral' and 'morality' come up more often than in an episode of Moral Orel.

    Fictitiously yours, Trent Roman
     
  12. Broccoli

    Broccoli Vice Admiral Admiral

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    10.13? You're Chris Carter, aren't you? ;)
     
  13. Eddie Roth

    Eddie Roth Commodore Commodore

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    I think we can all rest assured that however IWTB's boxoffice take ends up, there will eventually be a third movie. Popular franchises are always a somewhat safe bank for studios, and if you consider that other franchises (Batman, James Bond, Alien, Star Trek, etc.) have all had their misfires, they all continue to this very day. So will the TXF. Hell, they're even doing a new Beverly Hills 90210 TV show... In some way, TXF will return, even though I suspect we're going to have to wait for it until the inevitable 90's revival will take place.
     
  14. Captain Craig

    Captain Craig Vice Admiral Admiral

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    What is most telling is the massive drop it had in its 4th weekend. It went from spot #12 last week all the way down to #26, one slot above Love Guru which opened a month before. Guru was utter crap. It lost not only a lot of theaters but viewers who might have sought it out. We had a report or two here of those who wanted to check it out in weekend 3 but couldn't find it locally.

    It now has $20.5m on a $30m budget with at least another $1 - 1.5m to trickle in after the $1 theaters have had it. I'm surprised its not opened overseas yet? I'm wondering if it will, that would add to its bottom line.

    I don't know if DVD sales are enough to push an X-Files 3 or not. I disagree with the idea of comparing this to Batman or Bond that have had lack luster entries. Had Batman Returns or From Russia with Love had as compartively low returns to budget I'm not sure we would've had Batman Forever or Goldfinger.

    The business model is different now and due to that it may be the only reason for the XPhiler diehards to remain optimistic. Cause I will. Just as we can't end cinema Trek on Nemesis now can or should we end X-Files with IWTB.
     
  15. Trippy

    Trippy NaNoWriMo Victim Admiral

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    It has opened overseas. I don't have the numbers for you.

    Does Canada count as 'overseas' or domestic? :confused:
     
  16. Captain Craig

    Captain Craig Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Some sites report "North American Box Office" which includes Canada of course. While some do country by country break down. Typically Box Office Mojo, where I do most of my looking/discussing has US domestic with Canada being counted as Foreign Box Office.
     
  17. Harvey

    Harvey Admiral Admiral

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    The Numbers has the international data for the X-Files. I used to love Box Office Mojo, but that site is seriously in decline (even if it has a prettier layout than The Numbers does).

    The totals (different than Box Office Mojo, a $35,000,000 budget is listed)

    Domestic: $20,504,740
    International: $32,600,000

    Total: $53,104,740
     
  18. Captain Craig

    Captain Craig Vice Admiral Admiral

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    ^^^
    Nice to see some overseas numbers on X-Files. Those alone make me much more optimistic that with solid DVD sales, home and abroad, that XF:3 may come about afterall.

    Even with the disputable $5m discrepancy in budget.

    How do you define "decline" as it relates to B.O.M.? Its quoted heavily in other media outlets as a vetted and reliably accurate source.
     
  19. Harvey

    Harvey Admiral Admiral

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    Decline would be the websites' complete laxness in updating international numbers (this wouldn't have happened a year ago). Another would be its failure to list production budgets on occasion (even when they've been reported elsewhere).