Was the historical problem with City/Forever ever addressed?

[enterprisecvn65]

So first let me say it is a great episode and I do like the whole "One little seemingly insignificant act can totally alter the future in tremendous ways" idea.

BUT...........

There is a major flaw in the episode from a historical context.

So the story in predicated on the fact that McCoy goes crazy, enters the time porthole to the 1930's and saves Joan Collins' life and it turns out she starts some big pacifist moment later on which is powerful enough to delay the United States entering WWII, allowing the Nazis to create the atomic bomb first and win the war, totally altering history to the point where the Federation and the Enterprise don't exist.

So, assuming high school history classes have done their jobs correctly, it is true that when WWII started in 1939 the US stayed out of it, at least as a combatant, for little over two years during which time Hitler was kicking ass all over Europe and the Japanese all over China and east Asia. It's also true the reason we didn't get involved sooner was, in part, because many people didn't want to see the US dragged into another World War started in Europe barely 20 years after the first one ended.

The problem though is the US never entered anything on its own volition.....the decision to go to war was made for us after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in Dec. 1941....and Hitler declared war on the US a few days later, like he promised the Japanese he'd do.

After Pearl Harbor no pacifist moment, regardless of how popular or politically powerful they were could have kept the US from entering the war. The Japanese had destroyed a large part of the US fleet and killed thousands in a surprise attack, and then Hitler personally said Nazi Germany would bring the US to its knees. It's completely impossible to believe that our leaders would have gone "Well....let's negotiate longer with Japan and Germany in spite of their actions....maybe we can solve this peacefully and stay out of it." It was no holds barred kill or be killed warfare now and regardless of how people felt on Dec. 6th the United States was in it now until the bitter end.

So it wasn't like the US entered the war at a certain date in reality and because Collins' movement pushed that date back history got changed. Once Pearl Harbor happened the die was cast and no group was going to change it.

Unless Collins' was so influential she got the Japanese government to not bomb Pearl Harbor on Dec. 7th, almost impossible given the closed nature of Japan at the time, there was nothing she or any other pacifist group could do to alter the course of WWII and America's involvement in it. The events were simply out of her hands to influence.

 

[Ithekro]

I would think that her movement would have caused the Roosevelt administration to not put an oil embargo on the Japanese following their invasion of China in 1937. Without the oil embargo, the Japanese have no immediate reason to press either north into the Soviet Union (attempted around 1939, total failure) or invade what was then the Dutch East Indies for oil and rubber. With American oil, the Japanese can keep on keeping on in China until they ware themselves out and bother no one else as the Americans and Europeans are not being a threat (outside of also selling good to the various Chinese factions that is).

In fact if the Japanese had no reason to make a move against the Soviets for oil in the late 1930s (again a failed move the resulted in a non-aggression treaty) then the Germans would not have wanted to sign the Japanese up as allies. The Germans were allied with the Nationalist Chinese in the Nazi's ideologic war with Communism. The only reason they allied with Japan was because they saw the Japanese as being the better ally against the Soviet communist than the Nationist Chinese, whom the Nazi had been supporting with weapons and tanks prior to that. (The Japanese had to fight German built Panzers when they engaged the Nationist in the late 30s).

So, it the pacifist movement leads the US to not get involved in Asian nor Europeans affairs in the late 1930s, the Japanese have no real reason to attack. (Even if they do, the pacifist movement might not send the US Pacific fleet out to Pearl Harbor in 1940. That was not the main fleet base prior to that. It was a large base yes, but not where all the battleships were stationed regularly. It was a move to intimidate the Japanese).

No attack by the Japanese in 1941, means more "free time" for the Germans, though they will still have a hard time in Russia. If the Americans stay out entirely, then eventually the Nazi will make a A-bomb. Assuming they don't just get overrun by the Soviet Army first.

 

[Starborn Dragon]

The sanctions put on Japan were because Japan had already invaded China and were committing many atrocities, such as the Rape Of Nanking.

I don't understand this hatred of America so much that America is to be blamed for everything.

 

[Ithekro]

Not so much a blame thing here, just a matter of the why the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor. They didn't do it for giggles.

The only way to Americans would have been able to avoid getting involved with World War II would be if they had not done anything recent to cut off the Japanese supply of materials needed for their war in China. The question was how can Edith Keeler's movement have prevented the US from entering the war if it didn't have that option because it was attacked first. How do you stop it from being attacked? No oil embargo against Japan.

 

[StarCruiser]

Ithekro is correct - the US sanctions were very damaging to Japan's economy and military. They needed the oil really badly and we were one of the biggest suppliers in the 1930's.

As an American who DOES know his history, a fact's a fact. We helped push Japan to war.

 

[ZapBrannigan]

No attack by the Japanese in 1941, means more "free time" for the Germans, though they will still have a hard time in Russia. If the Americans stay out entirely, then eventually the Nazi will make a A-bomb. Assuming they don't just get overrun by the Soviet Army first.

But if we had stayed out of it, wouldn't Germany have had a lot more fight in them to throw at Russia?

 

[Ithekro]

US produced oil accounted for something like 80% of Japan's needs. Most of those needs were military needs, as outside of the United States, most counties didn't used oil for non-military purposes (I think the historical figure is something like 10% of most other contries usage of oil was domestic while 90% was military). The US, the largest producer of oil in the 1930s, could afford to use oil for other civilian things.

You cut off US oil to Japan, and their military goes into convulsions. They need that oil to move. That also is what stopped them later in the war, When the Allies cut off the Home Islands from the oil producing parts of the Empire, the Japanese military faultered. They didn't have the fuel to train pilots. They didn't have the fuel to sortie their navy often. The waters were so infested with Allied submarines that the Japanese navy was cut in two. The ships that had oil were around Singapore, badly damaged and without ammo. The ships in Japan could eventually be repaired and had ammo, but no fuel. So to get fuel to Japan they had to do expensive runs from the south to Japan. Usually resulting to the loss of vital ships and sometimes the oil tankers as well, making the trip doublely disasterous, loss of ships and the oil means the trip was wasted and they lost lives.

No attack by the Japanese in 1941, means more "free time" for the Germans, though they will still have a hard time in Russia. If the Americans stay out entirely, then eventually the Nazi will make a A-bomb. Assuming they don't just get overrun by the Soviet Army first.

But if we had stayed out of it, wouldn't Germany have had a lot more fight in them to throw at Russia?

Realistically, no. The Germans didn't hold back all that much because of the US relative to what they were using against the Russians. The units stationed in France around that time were the units in training or those pulled out of Russia for rebulding. They might have one more Panzer Division and a handful more squadrons of airplanes. That is assuming that the US staying out doesn't cause the Germans to tighten on the UK even more (still unlikely they can invade successfully).

The only real thing I can see that helps the Russians is the lend lease program providing materials to Russia. That helps a little bit and might delay the Russian counter-offensives after 1942, but nothing in the world would actually stop the Red Army short of a nuke. It is a matter of manpower and numbers at that point. The Russias could build and man tens of thousands of tanks, the Germans, for all their quality, could not. The additional forces not needed on the Western Front/Africa/Italy in 1943 and 1944 might hold the Russians off for a bit longer, but that would basically only allow for the Germans to finish an Atomic Bomb sometime in 1946 or so.

 

[Timo]

I think it could be argued that without early tacit US backing of Churchill's efforts to prolong the British struggle against Germany, there would have been major changes in the North African theater of operations. Either Britain would have been too hard pressed to resist the strategically ill-thought and in our timeline unsuccessful pushes against their Egyptian holdings, and the campaign would have ended in decisive German victory there (also massively alleviating their problems with the southern parts of the Eastern Front later on) - or then even the early British offensives against Italy would have been held back, meaning Germany would not have become involved in Africa to begin with.

In terms of divisions deployed, this would be a minor alteration. In terms of air units and fuel diverted, the impact would be immense, though - not to mention the psychological impact of allowing Germany to concentrate on fighting a true one-front war.

OTOH, if not for the threat from the US, the Japanese government might actually have backed the disastrous 1939 push of its rogue officers against the USSR, making it less disastrous - meaning Stalin would never have dared pull any of his reserves from Siberia, and would have been crushed even by the actual historical German offensive, let alone any putatively reinforced one.

The thing about WWII is that it's a rare total clusterfuck where every operation failed more or less disastrously due to random rather than inevitable factors. Certain nations won despite the disasters while others succumbed - but a lot was left to chance, and a major element in that chance was whether certain nations predestined to win (the industrially superior US and USSR, doh!) would call it quits at some point falling short of unconditional victory. Given a slightly different chain of disasters, either or both of them might have.

From the Star Trek point of view, we also have to consider that the story does not require an enduring German victory. It would suffice that the Germans scored a bit higher, and when their enemies then crushed them in this bloodier version of history, the end result was unviable for the rise of the United Earth that would kickstart the Federation.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[MacLeod]

the line from City...

SPOCK: This is how history went after McCoy changed it. Here, in the late 1930s. A growing pacifist movement whose influence delayed the United States' entry into the Second World War. While peace negotiations dragged on, Germany had time to complete its heavy-water experiments.

So following Germany's decleration of war on the USA a few days after the Pearl Harbour attack. Instead of going to war with Germany the USA tries to negotiate a peace treaty. Eventually those talks collapse be it 3 months, 6 months etc.. after the delceration of war during which time Germany has continued to develop it's war machine whilst the US has focused more attention on the Pacific theatre in terms of equipment.

 

[Timo]

So Germany "captures the world", whatever that means. But this need not mean that the world in the parallel timeline is German in the 2260s, or even that there would be a stable world government in the 1960s...

Spock seems to be implying, though, that it was US involvement that prevented Germany from building the A-bomb. Yet the US role in this was chiefly in supporting strategic bombing of mainland Germany, a factor that would kick in much later than the actual US entry into the war. Whatever happened in the Old World otherwise, say, regarding the Eastern Front or Africa, had little or no effect on German atomic research. And what did have effect on that (namely, internal censorship and disarray, deportations, and British and Norwegian commando raids) did not involve the US.

We thus have to assume that Spock is either generalizing a lot or discussing a timeline different from the one familiar to us, which moots all of our efforts to either support or deny Spock's claims.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[MacLeod]

But this peace movement could have had an impact on earlier events prior to the US entry into WWII such as the lend-lease act, US ships escorting atlantic convoy's part way etc...

 

[Zaku]

there isn't a novel that explored this altered timeline..?

*searching*

Memory Beta mentions Provenance of Shadows.

Has anyone read it?

 

[Shawnster]

SPOCK: This is how history went after McCoy changed it. Here, in the late 1930s. A growing pacifist movement whose influence delayed the United States' entry into the Second World War. While peace negotiations dragged on, Germany had time to complete its heavy-water experiments.

KIRK: Germany. Fascism. Hitler. They won the Second World War.

SPOCK: Because all this lets them develop the A-bomb first. There's no mistake, Captain. Let me run it again. Edith Keeler. Founder of the peace movement.

KIRK: But she was right. Peace was the way.

SPOCK: She was right, but at the wrong time. With the A-bomb, and with their V2 rockets to carry them, Germany captured the world.

Keeler's peace movement starts sometime after 1930. At the time of the episode, she doesn't appear to have much clout or influence beyond her soup kitchen. Realistically her peace movement wouldn't have any influence prior to the mid to late 30s. Any historic US policy decisions and actions would be the same in both universes up to about 1934-1936 or therabouts. I would think the earliest change in the timeline would be about the mid 30s.

Germany appears to have won WWII. What that win means, however, isn't said. It's assumed Germany conqueror the world, but that really wasn't going to happen so long as this big ocean was between the combatants. Of course, a pacifist USA might roll over for Hitler.

German V2 rockets delivered the atomic bombs. Or, that's what is being speculated.

Spock doesn't say that the US didn't get involved in WWII. Spock says the US was delayed in entering WWII. They entered sometime after Dec 7, 1941. Probably a fair bit of time after that date. Were there any German scientists that defected and helped in the Manhattan project?

If the US is delayed in entering the war, and this delay allowed Germany to develop the A-bomb first, then it stands to reason that it was the delay in the Manhattan project that proved pivotal. Something happened that allowed Germany to develop the Bomb first. All the pacifist movement needs to do is delay the Manhattan Project. If Roosevelt doesn't approve the atomic program in October, 1941 and if the S-1 committee doesn't meet in December 1941, this sets the project back.

What is the history of the German A-bomb? How did the US involvement in WWII result in the US developing the A-bomb first? How does the US entering the war at a later date allow Germany to develop the Bomb first?

Especially since Germany was defeated prior to the completion of the A-bomb.

In the altered timeline, the United States did enter int peace negotiations. Perhaps Pearl Harbor was bombed but the US still tried to sue for peace. A completely pacifist nation could turn to Japan and say "You bombed Pearl Harbor. I see you're upset. What can we do to make this right?" Or they may have entered into a limited war with Japan only. Peace negotiatons broke down with Germany and the US finally enters into war against the Nazis much later.

Or, as stated above, pacifist leadership could have influenced the US actions and reactions against Japan from the mid 30s onward, resulting in Japan not attacking Pearl Harbor. Perhaps war was inevitable, but the US pacifist delayed US involvement until middle '42 or start of '43.

 

[T'Girl]

I figure that Keeler had a oppertunity to meet Roosevelt while he was still governor of New York state, sold him on her ideas. This lead to the (mistimed) peace movement.

 

[Ithekro]

If the United States does not embargo oil to Japan, there is no reason for them to even attempt to invade the Soviet Union in 1939, as that attempt was to secure oil fields in Siberia. When this proved to be a non-starter due to superior Soviet tanks, the Japanese went with their Navy's plan to move south towards the Dutch East Indies.

But without the embargo, the Japanese have no reason to do either of these things. Instead they can press into China will full fuel tanks and get bogged down there for the next decade.

At that point the Fascist Powers would be Italy and Germany for the most part, as Germany would have no reason to seek Japan as an ally against Communism, being content with supplying the Nationalist Chinese with arms to fight the Communist there even if the Japanese are pressing in.

Then it becomes a question of when does the United States go to war with Germany? The Germans aren't going to attack across the Atlantic Ocean without cause. Unrestricted submarine warfare might eventually pull the Americans in, or a set of events like the First World War. But according to Spock it would be too late. The Germans, pressed by the Soviets would have reason to build an Atomic bomb to defend against the Soviet hordes. If they manage it first, then the game changes. Even with London being a thorn in Hitler's side, I would imagine he'd attack Stalin first with his new atomic present. Unless it was more reasonable to drop it on London to knock the British totally out of the war, ending any possible close American support via the British Isles, and then focusing the remaining units in France to the Eastern Front. Well those not needed to keep the French in line that is.

The destructive power of one or two bombs would probably end the war if Stalin surrenders. If Hitler wants them wiped out or enslaved, he might need to drop more, that depends entirely on how rational people are as a result of whereever the Germans explode these atomics.

Germany took over the world. Conquest, or influence (sort of what the Americans and Soviets did in the Cold War). Would there be a Cold War between Germany and the US? Would the US have even started work on their own Atomic programs? IF not and Germany is the only ones with functional nuclear knowledge for the next decade, than they won. No one can stop them if they don't care about the fallout nor is there any form of nuclear deturrent against Germany. Without both the industrial mights of the US and USSR, who stops nuclear Germany?

 

[Marsden]

Stalin had almost every officer that was any good purged so as not to threaten his position. Zukov was spared but sent to Siberia. If the Nazis used the atom bomb on the Kremlin the Soviet Union would cease to exist. Not that there wouldn't be a huge mess, but Stalin had all power with him and no line of succession.


I also think a timeline without a strong Soviet Union means no NATO vs. Warsaw Pact cold war and no space race, which would impact the future Federation's founding even Germany couldn't hold the world longer that a few years.

 

[Ithekro]

At that point it is a matter of range. Can the V2 with a nuke make it to where Stalin is from the nearest save launch point they Germans can construct ahead of the advancing Soviet Army?

There is no much doubt that the Soviets would turn the Germans back (winter of 1941 kicked the Germans butts regardless of anything the Soviets did), it is just a matter of how long until they can mount a proper counter-offensive without Lend Lease support from the US?

 

[Unicron]

SPOCK: This is how history went after McCoy changed it. Here, in the late 1930s. A growing pacifist movement whose influence delayed the United States' entry into the Second World War. While peace negotiations dragged on, Germany had time to complete its heavy-water experiments.

KIRK: Germany. Fascism. Hitler. They won the Second World War.

SPOCK: Because all this lets them develop the A-bomb first. There's no mistake, Captain. Let me run it again. Edith Keeler. Founder of the peace movement.

KIRK: But she was right. Peace was the way.

SPOCK: She was right, but at the wrong time. With the A-bomb, and with their V2 rockets to carry them, Germany captured the world.

Keeler's peace movement starts sometime after 1930. At the time of the episode, she doesn't appear to have much clout or influence beyond her soup kitchen. Realistically her peace movement wouldn't have any influence prior to the mid to late 30s. Any historic US policy decisions and actions would be the same in both universes up to about 1934-1936 or therabouts. I would think the earliest change in the timeline would be about the mid 30s.

Germany appears to have won WWII. What that win means, however, isn't said. It's assumed Germany conqueror the world, but that really wasn't going to happen so long as this big ocean was between the combatants. Of course, a pacifist USA might roll over for Hitler.

German V2 rockets delivered the atomic bombs. Or, that's what is being speculated.

Spock doesn't say that the US didn't get involved in WWII. Spock says the US was delayed in entering WWII. They entered sometime after Dec 7, 1941. Probably a fair bit of time after that date. Were there any German scientists that defected and helped in the Manhattan project?

If the US is delayed in entering the war, and this delay allowed Germany to develop the A-bomb first, then it stands to reason that it was the delay in the Manhattan project that proved pivotal. Something happened that allowed Germany to develop the Bomb first. All the pacifist movement needs to do is delay the Manhattan Project. If Roosevelt doesn't approve the atomic program in October, 1941 and if the S-1 committee doesn't meet in December 1941, this sets the project back.

What is the history of the German A-bomb? How did the US involvement in WWII result in the US developing the A-bomb first? How does the US entering the war at a later date allow Germany to develop the Bomb first?

Especially since Germany was defeated prior to the completion of the A-bomb.

In the altered timeline, the United States did enter int peace negotiations. Perhaps Pearl Harbor was bombed but the US still tried to sue for peace. A completely pacifist nation could turn to Japan and say "You bombed Pearl Harbor. I see you're upset. What can we do to make this right?" Or they may have entered into a limited war with Japan only. Peace negotiatons broke down with Germany and the US finally enters into war against the Nazis much later.

Or, as stated above, pacifist leadership could have influenced the US actions and reactions against Japan from the mid 30s onward, resulting in Japan not attacking Pearl Harbor. Perhaps war was inevitable, but the US pacifist delayed US involvement until middle '42 or start of '43.

Is there also the possibility that assuming an attack like Pearl Harbor still occurred in the new timeline, that it was more successful than its historical counterpart and succeeded in crippling the U.S.' Pacific operations as it was intended to do? We kind of got lucky in real history that the carriers, which the assault force was specifically looking for, weren't in port that day and weren't destroyed. Had that happened, or failing that had the Japanese destroyed Pearl's supply facilities with a third strike (which they contemplated, but ultimately aborted because they didn't know where our carriers were), I can see where that would have influenced things more in a pacifistic direction theoretically.

 

[Ithekro]

There was no ability for a third strike, that fuel was needed for other operations on the way home. It was not even planned, just a desire by the pilots.

A peace movement might have prevented Pearl Harbor from even happening. The Fleet was sent to Pearl Harbor in 1940 for war games then stationed their as a message to the Japanese. A show of force. A peace movement might have prevented that action from even taking place, resulting in less ships being stationed there. The US Pacific Fleet up to that point has been stationed in San Diego.

If so, the Japanese attack might have crippled the base, if they even bothered to attack it. Since the American fleet would not be there, I doubt the Japanese would make an effort to attack it as an opening move. Only if they intend to use it to draw out the American fleet from the West Coast and smash it like they intended at Midway. But the American Pacific Fleet was not something to be triffled with at sea. At least not that far from the Japanese supply lines where their battleships and smaller carriers could be brought out.

Though the most likely result of a peace movement is to prevent the Americans from getting the Japanese upset enough to attack in the first place. Then it is just a matter of when do the Americans decide that Hitler needs to go? Remember there were people that still thought Nazi Germany was a good thing. There were few that thought all that highly of Japan (racism being a very real thing in 1940). Nazi Germany was better to many than the Communists. Jews? Who needs them, right? That was another thing at that time.

 

[Shawnster]

I figure that Keeler had a oppertunity to meet Roosevelt while he was still governor of New York state, sold him on her ideas. This lead to the (mistimed) peace movement.

This fits really well with the alternate history. If Keeler meets Gov. Roosevelt shortly after McCoy saves her life, then they could form a connection that would last on to FDR's presidency.

Germany took over the world. Conquest, or influence (sort of what the Americans and Soviets did in the Cold War). Would there be a Cold War between Germany and the US? Would the US have even started work on their own Atomic programs? IF not and Germany is the only ones with functional nuclear knowledge for the next decade, than they won. No one can stop them if they don't care about the fallout nor is there any form of nuclear deturrent against Germany. Without both the industrial mights of the US and USSR, who stops nuclear Germany?

The movie Fatherland depicts an alternate reality where Germany won WWII and entered into a Cold War with the US.