STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    It's all skiffy - superheroes, spaceship stuff, vampires and zombies and dragons and time travel. All part of the same continuum.
     
  2. Belz...

    Belz... Commodore Commodore

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    Aside from Batman Begins, I think that trilogy is way overrated.

    How does that work ? I mean, how do they adjust their projections ?

    I don't think your tastes can be used to explain why the movie isn't performing the way we'd have liked.
     
  3. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    They take tracking polls of the public to determine levels of awareness and interest in upcoming films. Tracking can be way off in predicting openings, though. Plus there are a number of different sources for tracking that leak and they're not always in agreement.
     
  4. Sector 7

    Sector 7 Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Although I loved STID, it seems too mature for my older grandchildren (7 and 5). Hopefully, the next movie will be more family-friendly.

    I am concerned that marketing was too dark for many families in US. YMMV.:techman:
     
  5. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I took my six-year old son and he loved it.
     
  6. thumbtack

    thumbtack Commodore Commodore

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    Epic was projected to open with 42 million and remain comfortably ahead of STID.

    Now You See Me with 31 million.

    After Earth with 40 million.

    Here's where the others stand, though Out of My Vulcan Mind is right that it's always changing right up until release:

    Man of Steel: 110 million

    World War Z: 46 million

    The Lone Ranger: 49 million

    Pacific Rim: 55 million

    The Wolverine: 52 million

    If there's a break out blockbuster in the remaining summer months, it will probably be something unexpected.
     
  7. ralph

    ralph Captain Captain

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    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  8. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    The three biggest blockbusters for the rest of the summer will probably be entirely expected: Man of Steel, Monsters University, and Despicable Me 2.

    The last few summers have delivered five or six films that have gone over $200 million domestic and one or two that have gone over $300 million or $400 million. This summer looks to be no different. In fact it may end up doing better. This May set the best domesic attendance in 10 years even adjusting for inflation.

    Tracking for Now You See Me was in the high teens to low 20s, not 31. It exceeded expectations by quite a bit. Latest tracking numbers in the BoxOffice.com forum have Man of Steel staying steady at 125 and The Lone Ranger improving to 65.

    Edited to add: since I posted some new tracking numbers now have Man of Steel at 90 and The Lone Ranger at 80 (although whether that's for the 3-day or the long holiday weekend isn't known). World War Z is up to 65.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  9. LobsterAfternoon

    LobsterAfternoon Commander Red Shirt

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    Some of 'em are sci fi, some of 'em are not. Iron Man, which has a clearly impossible thing (battle armor) is, while Batman, which just sorta has the heightened action movie rules regarding fighting and stuff blowing up, is not.
     
  10. thumbtack

    thumbtack Commodore Commodore

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    I'll watch boxoffice.com, but no way Man of Steel opens that bad. In fact, none of their numbers match the other two sites.
     
  11. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    ^^^
    Those latest tracking numbers are from the source referred to as BTC. I don't know if the studios have influence over the tracking numbers, but it may be a case of Warners playing the expectations game.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2013
  12. Franklin

    Franklin Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    I know where you're coming from. Four years ago, my daughters were freaked out by the bar fight in ST09. Not the stuff they're used to seeing. They were gun-shy about this movie (I mean, hey, into darkness). Keeping my fingers crossed, I promised them that kind of thing wasn't in STID. They both liked it a lot. My youngest wants to see it again when school's out.

    The marketing of this movie seemed way off for the kind of story it was. Which is too bad, because it was a darned good movie.

    The title of a story, movie, novel, or whatever is the hardest thing to come up with sometimes. I think this movie also may have suffered a bit (at least at first) from the title they settled on. But that said, I certainly can't think of anything else short of "Star Trek II".
     
  13. Neumann

    Neumann Captain Captain

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    Hmm this movie was the one that deserved the "Insurrection" title
     
  14. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Batman's skiffy too.
     
  15. mswood

    mswood Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    One of the biggest factors in a movies performance is what else is it in competition with.

    A huge part of a film's performance is causal movie goers, people who aren't anything even close to a fan. And with that large block of viewers, it's all about picking which films are you more interested in.

    May 2009 was almost across the board viewed as disappointing. Trek 2009 benefited hugely due to the lack of better (read more audience engaging films). The only film in May outside of Trek that met or exceeded expectations was UP and that was released at the very end of May. By that time Trek had already cleared 200 million, and the rest was bank.

    This year, Iron Man got a huge, huge boost due to the almost unprecedented success of Avengers. More people watched Iron Man before Star Trek opened and during its first week in release then Wolverine, Angel's and Demons, and Terminator Salvation in there entire month of May.

    People don't have unlimited funds. They will pick certain must see films and a number of films that they like (but on't love).

    Compare things to that overseas. With Trek having a staggered release, they can minimize the impact of direct competition, that has helped the film.

    Of course that and the fact that there was a four year break between the films certainly didn't help. For example, if Iron Man opened three years after the Avengers versus one year, I have no doubt that Iron Man wouldn't have received such a large bump in viewers.
     
  16. StarTrek1701

    StarTrek1701 Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    A bit off-topic, but the reason Americans are not going to the movies right now has to be because of two reasons.

    First, for whatever reason, heroes that we are supposed to root for are shown as weak and unable in the first-impression-lasts-long advertisements. Look at ST-ID first poster: its the Enterprise falling to Earth after taking a bad beating. Pacific Rim: Jaeger Gypsy Danger broken in half and bowing down in defeat. Man of Steel: Superman.. bloody fucking SUPERMAN in handcuffs!!! Seriously, who the fuck wants to see weak pathetic heroes?

    Second, the blockbuster movies are just crammed in hard with no space to breathe. If someone likes a movie they will go multiple times. However, if a new movie comes out just one week after a movie you liked its hard to justify going to see the same movie again vs. a new movie that also attracts your senses. Studios are just rushing to get first dollar but in the long run they are losing patrons.

    Just my $0.02. :)
     
  17. I am not Spock

    I am not Spock Commodore Commodore

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    I have seen STID three times so far. I might go a fourth. Nothing else out at the moment interests me. Don't care for IM3, Man of Steel, or F&F.

    I will usually just go and see the movie I like multiple times. I saw Prometheus twice last year, and Skyfall three times.
     
  18. TommyW

    TommyW Lieutenant Junior Grade Red Shirt

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    The title of the film is the problem - and I don't mean the "Into Darkness" bit ;) A lot of people are put off by Star Trek in general. It's just not "cool" like Star Wars and other similar franchises. Will take years and years of a more mainstream Trek to shake off that stigma. Maybe it never will.
     
  19. KGator

    KGator Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    Mentally? . . . that's debatable.
    Your second point makes sense, the logjam of summer movies dispersing the summer movie budget. However the first seems like whimsical speculation based on some personal view of the human condition rather than any type of pattern analysis. I suppose someone could speculate that it depends on the moon and the tides or some astrological reason and have as much credence as your "patrons don't like movie posters with weak heros on them so they skip those films" theory.
     
  20. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Again, the May domestic box office had the highest attendance in the last 10 years. The contention that Americans are going to the movies in lower numbers than usual so far this summer is inaccurate.