STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/early_estimate/2013-06-01

    Early estimate for this weekend is $15.6m a huge 58% drop. This is the first awful number for STID and really puts the brakes on the box office. It will definitely not get anywhere near the $257m of ST09 and might fall up to $35m short! It is a disappointment when the increased ticket prices of 4yrs of inflation and the added 3D premium is taken into account. Millions of people who watched ST09 did not come back to STID.

    The is still a chance for a slightly higher number if Saturday overperforms.. Fingers crossed.
     
  2. JamesRye

    JamesRye Lieutenant Junior Grade Red Shirt

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    Wow! is that figure of $7m for Friday in China correct? $7 million just on one day.:cool:

    Paramount are going to be over the moon - clearly China is going to be as big a market as the US in the future.

    $7 million in one day (shakes head). Does anyone have any predictions for the total China gross? Surely it's gotta be $50 million +

    Hopefully the final figures are saved by the rest of the world. If it can top out with anything higher than $400 million then that is a big success.

    I actually think that they should have called it Star Trek into the Light, or Star Trek out of darkness or for a bit of cheesy fun:

    Maybe the next one should be:

    Star Trek to strange, new worlds
     
  3. beamMe

    beamMe Commodore

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    Star Trek hit the domestic 230 million mark after being in distribution for over a month and the 250 million after over two months.

    Suggestion: Give STID at least that much time before declaring it a failure or disappointment.
     
  4. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    I think so, yes. According to: This Post on boxoffice.com

    It made 42m Chinese Yuan which is $6.84m dollars and that same poster believes Star Trek will get to over $50m in China.

    If you use google chrome you can translate this page: http://movie.mtime.com/106291/ which is a China IMDB like website and the natives have rated it 8.4/10 which is higher than Iron Man 3 @ 7.7/10 so it seems to be going down quite well.

    China will be the biggest box office market in a decade and I suspect many co-productions and many more Chinese-centric movies will be the result. For example, a future Star Trek movie might choose to centre an Earthbound story on Shanghai instead of San Francisco etc..
     
  5. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    I understand what you are saying however you can always use the current weekends gross and percentage drop as an excellent indication of how a movie will perform until it leaves the cinema. From this figure I think it is possible to conclude that it will finish at around $220-$235m but I do agree that it may be wrong and it may get to $250+ but the chance is now very small.
     
  6. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    STID still ahead of ST09 as of the end of Friday 31st May, $169.1 vs $167.5 but by Tuesday it will be nearly $10m behind and that margin will continue to increase until close.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2013
  7. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    $240 would be the apex I reckon at thi stands though a $220ish target seems likely. However worldwide target is going to crack $200 million based off starts in China & Korea. Worldwide probably a target of $440-460 seems likely ;)
     
  8. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Yes, I think with $50+ million from China we could end up @ $225/$240 = $465m WW.

    Trouble is that though it is an increase from $385m we got last time it will not be a big enough increase relative to the extra budget and WW marketing campaign.

    The quoted budget for ST09 was $150m and now STID is $190m, so it needed an extra $80m from WW to make it back - which it did BUT also the advertising budget for overseas increased as well so I think STID will make less money than ST09 due to the extra expenses. Paramount spent more and would have wanted more of an increase after 3D, Inflation and overseas expansion are taken into account.

    Lower budget for sure next time. I think it will still be 3D though.
     
  9. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I don't know, Paramount may be in this for the long haul.

    There were reports that FX paid 12% of the gross for the basic cable rights to Star Trek 2009 (in the U.S.), if that figure holds for Into Darkness that will add another $50 million to Paramount's coffers. When you factor in International broadcast rights, premium cable rights and home-video distribution this movie may end up in the $600-650 million dollar range. Not The Avengers/Dark Knight territory but it'll make a very healthy profit for the studio.
     
  10. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Well it will be less profitable than ST09 I think...

    Lots of guesswork (educated guesswork!)!!

    ST09 Quoted Production Budget: $150m
    ST09 Worldwide Ad Budget: $100m (guess)
    ST09 WW Gross: $385m
    50% Back to Studio: $192.5m
    Profit needed from DVD/TV/PPV/Rental to break-even: $57.5m

    STID Quoted Production Budget: $190m
    STID Worldwide Ad Budget: $130m (guess)
    STID WW Gross: $465m ??
    50% Back to Studio: $232.5m
    Profit needed from DVD/TV/PPV/Rental to break-even: $87.5m
     
  11. beamMe

    beamMe Commodore

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    I wish you'd stop bringing up your unfounded, unsupported "double the budget to make a profit"-line.
     
  12. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    I have doubts over the marketing being way bigger this time? It seemed about the same apart from a little push in certain OS markets. Also Blu Ray/DVD's sales could beat ST09 + other areas of revenue. A large portion of the increase went to post 3D conversion if memory recalls so I wonder did 3D really bring in the $$$ and would they be better off doing 2D/IMAX only like the TDK franchise did for the 2016 sequel.

    Either way I think a $170 million budget seems best way to next, right down the middle of 09 & STID.
     
  13. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    The ad budget for Into Darkness has been put at around $100 million. And it's money well spent if Paramount is able to turn Star Trek into an International brand. This movie easily makes money when all is said and done and the franchise is better situated for International markets in the future.
     
  14. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    Studios probably get back more than 50%, I be very surprised to learn the cinemas make all that much at the end of the day because Hollywood know how to horde the $$$.
     
  15. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I've always heard the reason concession prices are so high is because the theaters hardly make anything through ticket sales.
     
  16. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Well I only ever see the 50% figure stated wherever I look so I went with it. Even if that percentage is more STID is still less profitable than ST09 because of its bigger budget.
     
  17. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    I agree it is money well spent, so do Paramount reduce that budget next time and hope that the same number of people turn out or do they keep it the same or increase to try and get more?
     
  18. DaleC76

    DaleC76 Captain Captain

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    Why do you think that is? A failure of the ad campaign? The hype of the reboot drawing people in who would not watch a sequel anyway?
     
  19. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    The split for domestic box office works on a sliding scale. The studio's cut is very high in the first week and then steadily drops week by week. The studio usually ends up with 50-55% of domestic box office, although for some films it can be higher or lower depending on the specific deals with theatres and how frontloaded their box office runs are. I read one entertainment journo who claimed some deals are now straight 50/50 or 55/45 splits all the way through, but I never saw that confirmed elsewhere.

    The studio gets less from foreign box office, typically about 40% across the board, although China sets the rate at a much lower 25%. If you want a detailed account of all of this and how the studios often don't cover total costs from box office receipts alone, even on films they consider to be successful, with home entertainment revenue being an integral part of overall profitability, then read Edward Jay Epstein's The Big Picture. He's an investigative journalist who looked into the studios' modern business model.
     
  20. LeadHead

    LeadHead Director of Comedy Premium Member

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    Well, to infuse some optimism into this thread, I'm glad that in Week 3, we're still in many IMAX's. Sitting in an IMAX right now, waiting for it to start.