STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I don't know why they have the budget so high, but the foreign numbers they're reporting come from the studio and have been reported by other outlets, too. Here's confirmation from The Hollywood Reporter:

    Looks like they've got a typo for the global gross, though.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2013
  2. I am not Spock

    I am not Spock Commodore Commodore

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    Nice! It was a nice surprise to wake up to this morning (it's 7.30 am here in Oz), and see that it is well over 200 mil worldwide now. The overseas total should be way ahead of Trek 09. Chances of a sequel are looking good. Great news.

    The best part is that it hasn't even opened everywhere yet, and won't for months. This movie should end up doing quite well indeed.
     
  3. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Noticed the official studio estimate is $48 million for 4 days. Putting it about $156 million US for 11 days. It will run only $3.5 million below TH3 for the weekend..staggering.

    RAMA
     
  4. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I think there's going to be a lot of concern at Paramount that this movie is going to end up grossing less domestically than Star Trek 2009.
     
  5. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Im doubting it now. While it may make less than the adjusted number for ST09 it is likely going to break $258 million....but less than the $325 million I predicted. The movie certainly appears to have legs, and there is minimal competition till Man of Steel. So $260 million plus about $180 million foreign, means $440 million. The ST franchise could do worse than have a new box office leader.

    RAMA
     
  6. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I don't think it'll make $260 million. It'll top out in the $240-245 million dollar range.
     
  7. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    It'll hit $200 million by next monday, It has a very good chance...but really, Paramount isnt going to quibble much if it comes within $15 million. I think they will chalk up the lesson of not waiting so long between sequels and release it after 3 years for the anniversary. I think the third movie will likely make $300 million.
     
  8. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I think it'll be at around $185 million, give or take a couple mil, by next Monday.
     
  9. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    I'll say $191 to 200 million. (roughly $3 million a day till thursday, $5-6 million friday, $18-20 million weekend, and $2-3 million monday...)
     
  10. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    ATM I think $230m North America and $200m Overseas for $430m total. The budget will definitely be cut down for the next one. First change I think would be to film with a 3D camera instead of converting from 2D and more sets indoors with greenscreen instead of outdoors.

    They will also reduce the Overseas marketing budget because I think they went the extra mile overseas but have not got massive gains however perhaps the people they hooked with this movie will stick around for the next one. Overseas might benefit more if the release date is changed to March, April or late July/early August because of less competition.

    I think they hoped for an $500-600m with this movie but it hasn't materialised, they do however know roughly what the ceiling is now and can budget appropriately.
     
  11. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    A little less time between movies and 50th anniverary hoopla, and we'll hit $500 million plus for the next one. We won't know the final international tally till maybe late September.

    RAMA
     
  12. Phily B

    Phily B Commodore Commodore

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    The OS take, while an improvement, is still baffling.
     
  13. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Are you counting that $5-6 million within the weekend number?

    My thinking is $9-10 million for Tuesday to Thursday this week, $18-21 million for the third weekend (Friday to Sunday). That brings it to aroud $185 million, give or take one or two. If you add in the following Monday that could bring it up to just under $190 million.

    I agree entirely. As for a release date change, I think they'll either stick with May or move to November 2016.
     
  14. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Since the movie is running 1-2% over ST09, and it will be in Imax for a few weeks yet, then I think 18-20 million is realistic for Saturday-Sun only ($12 million mon thru thurs). ST09 made over $29 million for the third weekend, I'm guessing $23 million low end for STID.
     
  15. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Star Trek's third weekend was Memorial Day weekend. It made $29 million for the 4-day weekend (and $22.9 million for the 3-day). STiD will have a regular weekend as its third weekend, without the inflated Sunday business MD weekend brings, and of course the following Monday will be a regular day and not a holiday. $18-21 million is the likely range for the whole 3-day weekend, Friday to Sunday, followed by a Monday of about $2 million.
     
  16. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    I wonder how much 3D has helped STID, I'd like to see 2D and IMAX only for the next movie as 3D did add to the budget and you wonder was it needed.
     
  17. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    It has helped keep the dollar figure similar to st09

    I think if it was just in 2D the $$$ would be 25-30% lower.

    Less people seeing STID than ST09.

    Converting a 2D movie to 3D costs more than filming in 3D to start with, so film in 3D next time with another director willing to do so.
     
  18. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    ^^ 25-30% might be too high actually. TBH I am not sure ;) 3D accounts for say 45% of the gross and is certainly more expensive than 2D.

    Also I don't understand why many movies are still filmed in 2D and post-converted to 3D. Even Iron Man 3 and the Avengers were filmed in 2D and converted afterward. Is it because the 'film like' quality is lost because they are using a 3D camera instead of 2D 35mm?

    Converting a 2D movie to 3D takes 700 people 9 months (Jurassic Park 3D) - thats got to be a lot of money that does not need to be spent if you filmed in 3D to start with?
     
  19. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    They're not backing off 3D.
     
  20. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    I agree, they will keep the 3D

    I just wonder if they film with a 3D camera like Avatar etc because that might save them some $? instead of converting 2d to 3d.