Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.
Wasn't Gary on Spongebob?
Rth just updated for Thursdays numbers. Looks like Hangover 3 is doing very badly!
Hangover 3 is going to be making only HALF the amount of the second movie at this rate.
STID barely dropped form yesterday, which is good news!
If HO3 tanks then it just shows how crowded May is. TA gave a much bigger boost to IM3 than most people thought too.
Though it's possible Trek could beat it still I guess, though you always need to count the budget in these things. Saying that, somehow Hangover 3 has a budget of 100m...
Nah, HO3 is tanking because of how bad the second Hangover movie was. Most people HATED it. Doesn't help that HO3 is getting even worst reviews.
To compare the movies on their first days:
Hangover 2 made 31.6 Million
Hangover 3 made 11 Million
Let's just hope Trek 3 doesn't follow that trend!
Yeah, both Hangovers had their first full day in theaters on a Thursday, so it's a fair comparison.
I hope people realize STID isn't doing THAT bad as a sequel.
There is a good chance STID is beating Hangover this weekend!
STiD needs a $10 million Friday to set it up for a $45 million 4-day weekend. An $11 million Friday could carry it to as much as $50 million.
Great start for Fast 6. Not exactly sure what this means for STID yet.
Best case scenario is for people just showing up at a theatre (w/o advanced tickets) see the sell-outs of F&F6 and pick another movie (hopefully STiD). Also depending on the weather this Memorial Day weekend - if its rainy for instance - a lot of families might opt to go to the movies instead and that could also be a last minute decision.
Here in the South and in the South West - it's outdoor weather. NE and Midwest, perhaps a movie day.
The search for STID in IMAX in Brazil, is fantastic. More than 20 available theaters and many crowded: São Paulo, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, Recife, Brasilia, São Luiz, Campinas, big cities. The first exhibition in IMAX was on May 18th. Now being announced for May 25th and May 30th. All IMAX theaters realized the success this last weekend and now want to release the film as well. We, site Trek Brazilis, are helping, via facebook and twitter, with links to buy tickets. STID in 2-D will open June 14th. I think we'll have a surprise box office. Unfortunately, no one from "Supreme Court" or cast will come here to make a marketing, but I'm very happy because the fans are doing their own part..
Well I personally am hoping for $35-38m 3-day and $45-$48m 4-day which would be great.
STID will make $5m on Thursday. I think it will go to around $9m-$10m on Friday for the figures above.
Assuming $5m Thursday and then the same percent increases of ST09 on memorial weekend I get.
But I wonder if this time around the increased competition will make those figures drop a little so I hope for $45m for 4 Days.
Shouldn't the extended IMAX run help too, especially if well-advertized?
True. I forgot about this until now but I think Trek09 lost its IMAX screens to Night At the Museum on Memorial Day weekend. So perhaps the fact that Trek goes into this weekend with IMAX will help keep the numbers toward the higher end of expectations?
The competition this time is more difficult though.
Its hard to predict the box office! Thats for sure.
Remember that Memorial Day weekend was Star Trek's third weekend, not its second.
Yes but I think different weekends at the BO mean more to its Friday increase than the weekend number. Trek09 second Friday increased 109% from the Thursday. I think this is too high here so I chose to go with the Memorial Weekend increases.
I think it'll be an increase of between 75-100% over Thursdays number. Hopefully its toward the higher end.
That range is too low for the Friday increase. Even Battleship got an 81.9% increase. STiD's Friday increase should be at least 95-100% and could go as high as 125-130%. It's not the Friday increase that's likely to be lower for a second weekend than a third weekend, but rather that the Friday-to-weekend multiplier is likely to be in the range of 4.5 to 4.6 for the 4-day weekend rather than the exceptionally high weekend multiplier Star Trek scored for the 4-day in its third weekend.
I say 75% because thats what some of the Star Wars prequels got, 75%, 98% and 71%.
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