STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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  2. Borgminister

    Borgminister Admiral Moderator

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    Hey, double the business! Pray for legs! My 250 estimate was based on the first and second long weekends, by the way... :) I am anticipating 300+ domestic.
     
  3. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    MEXICO: 'Star Trek: Into Darkness" Disappoints in Debut

     
  4. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Star Trek opened to $1 million in Mexico and made $3.4 million in its entire run there. So STiD opening to $2.6 million is a 160% increase. Maybe they were expecting an even bigger increase - they reportedly opened the film on significantly more screens in Mexico compared to ST - but it's still a big jump.
     
  5. Borgminister

    Borgminister Admiral Moderator

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    It's like that peculiar news item in which expected corporate profits were not reached--2% instead of 5%, so FAIL!
     
  6. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    STiD has a shot at $300 million domestic, but bear in mind how difficult it is to achieve that level. Over the last five years only two or three summer movies per year have made over $300 million domestic (three in 2008, two in 2009, three in 2010, two in 2011 and two in 2012).
     
  7. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Even though this is true, I think Paramount likely has unrealistic expectations for this film. :eek:
     
  8. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I don't think so. If STiD makes, say, $275 million domestic I think they'll be happy with that as long as there's improvement in the foreign numbers. Star Trek performed very well domestically. It's the traditional Trek weakness overseas that they're hoping to overcome. If the film does $500 million worldwide that'll likely meet their expectations, even if it doesn't quite get to $300 million domestic.
     
  9. Cinema Geekly

    Cinema Geekly Commander Red Shirt

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    I'm not sure why the Mexico number is bad. I mean the kind of Sci-Fi that Trek offers isn't exactly a big genre in Mexico.

    Doing almost as much in the opening as the last film did in its entire run has to be good news.
     
  10. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    They're at least as concerned with the actual take at the end as they are with measuring any relative improvement.

    Link
     
  11. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Iron Man 3 will pass $300 million domestic in a couple of days. I'd say four other summer films have a shot at reaching that level: Star Trek Into Darkness, Man of Steel, Monsters University, and Despicable Me 2.
     
  12. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    A 50% increase in international gross is exactly on track to my prediction of about $180 million. It has an outside chance at $200 million unless the China opening is somehow shockingly good. Still predicting $325 million US.
     
  13. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    China has the potential to add a huge chunk of money to the international box office, that market has exploded in recent years and I believe it likes to watch big epic 3D movies and I bet thats how Paramount marketed it there.

    For example.

    Battleship (2012) with Taylor Kitch and Rihanna did $50 million in China !
     
  14. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    According to someone @ worldofkj forums there has been some advanced preview screenings for Star Trek in Hong Kong over the past week and apparently according to this poster who is obviously an expert on the Hong Kong box office these previews have been doing very well!


    Source: http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=12
     
  15. ralph

    ralph Captain Captain

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    The Japanese as well as Chinese like movie themes with sacrifice, honor, family.
    I think STID can please them.
     
  16. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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  17. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Same as has already been reported. Per the referenced Variety article:

    The hundred million estimate is still counting Thursday and the sneaks tonight.
     
  18. Phily B

    Phily B Commodore Commodore

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    Some people seem to think about 115m over the 4 days is a fair estimate between the low and high?
     
  19. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    I'm sure that if they do 115 million in four days they'll be thrilled.

    However, if they're figuring 90 million Friday-Sunday - to be optimistic - then they need 25 million through Thursday to pull it off.

    The buzz is so strong on this movie it may well shock them all and outperform all the domestic tracking.
     
  20. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    From Box Office Guru on twitter: