Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.
Let's hope the Guru is flat-out wrong.
I think it has a decent shot at 200-210. More than that is tough. I'd love to see it defy the odds and make more, though.
The "Guru" was flat-out wrong about the movie's opening weekend, why should he improve?
The kind of "prognostication" he's been doing here is sleight-of-hand: repeat what the conventional wisdom and the trend shows, and most of the time you'll be right. When the trend turns the other direction, follow that trend without blinking as well.
Stock market analysts do a lot of this; if on any given day you predict that things will be a lot like yesterday, you'll sound smart most days.
He is applying the usual trends in extrapolating out, yes. But then some trends reoccur with great consistency, so one can lay out the most probable scenarios. A summer sequel that opens to less than or about the same as the preceding film and ends up with a similar gross is pretty much a unicorn. I'd love for STiD to turn out to be that unicorn, but the path beyond Memorial Day weekend makes that unlikely.
Edit to add: the Tuesday actual is $6,761,446 for a total of $98,446,262.
The monday and tues grosses at $8 mill and $7 million are very good!! Ive been out of action a few days so I havent seen it again yet.
The day CBS doesn't have the #1 primetime show, #1 prime time line up, #1 comedy, and #1 drama will be the day CBS cares about developing Star Trek for Television.
The competition this weekend is insane. It's unusual to have two big movies with so much demographic overlap being released on the same weekend. Usually one of the studios would have blinked and moved to a different release date.
Yes, but the demographics arent really the same as ST demos, so it will have it's niche. As I said earlier if STID does $40 million or so, and probably $43-47 for the 4 days, it will be doing just fine, and probably still on track for $250 million.
Star Trek Into Darkness did $6.14m on OW in Russia.
John Carter of Mars did $16.5m OW
Battleship did $11.1m
Fast and Furious 6 forecast to do $17.6m
Iron Man 3 $23.1m
I guess the Russians don't like Star Trek very much
The demographic models will probably be very similar to last weekend with the movie skewing older (under 25 are split by Hangover and FF6) and predominantly male (again younger males are more likely to go to Hangover and FF6). Actually I think the film holds up quite well.
Frankly think Guru is smoking crack, and there are many times his projections are waaaaaaayyyyy off. Again I suspect Trek brings in close to $40 million over the 3 day (probably $37) and ultimately $46 for the four day weekend putting it's total at $156 going into its second week of release. Trek is then in a very good place as it will be pretty much the only genre film in release until June 14th(not expecting much from After Earth).
I was talking about the demographic overlap between F&F 6 and HIII. I wasn't comparing them to STiD. It was an aside about this weekend's competition, not a Trek-related comment.
I agree that STiD will hold up compared to Star Trek in its second weekend, but that's a Memorial Day weekend compared to a regular one in 2009. Star Trek then had another very good hold for a $29.4 million 4-day third weekend over Memorial Day weekend. It's in its third weekend that STiD is likely to fall behind.
I would normally agree but STiD is not performing like a typical frontloaded sequel. There were signs on the first Monday and Tuesday of Pirates Stranger Tides that something was amiss and the numbers would fall very short of the previous Pirates movies. The fact that this past Monday and Tuesday held up so well is proof positive that WOM is helping this film. I think this weekend's AND next weekend's drops are going to remain in line with Trek 2009. In addition, with a release schedule closer to June STiD should get higher daily box office numbers through the first week or two of June.
Star Trek has IMAX until Man of Steel so that will soften the drops for a while, ST09 only had IMAX for 2 weeks.
So by current trends - very early days however, and strong competition - ID should beat Trek 09 by the time its delisted, not by much but get there.
Which would be good with the overseas box office tally. It'll just be back to the drawing board for Paramount to try appeal to a younger generation. How? Who knows since CBS seem reluctant. I still think making a quality video game is the way forward.
A strong Memorial Day weekend take and a decent third weekend would put $215-235 million in play. $250 million would be an astounding achievement - very tough to do, but I'd love to see it.
I think there's an outside chance to hit that for one reason... By the time Trek 2009 got to June, and better weekday box office numbers, it was further into its release. I think STiD can really make some hay in early June as it is earlier in its release cycle, and there are very few genre films out there to compete with it until Man of Steel.
I don't think it will hit those numbers, but current trends hint that it could. However this is one of the most competitive summers for years, and one of the most competitive Mays so the trend isn't likely to continue.
I'm very glad STID wasn't released next to Avengers last year. That would have been a total bloodbath!
They could have released it two weeks afterwards when Battleship was released, it would've give it plenty of breathing room and leg space while perhaps helping out Prometheus. Last Summer it would've done a lot better, which has probably irked Paramount a bit.
Are STID and Hangover really the same target audience? I don't see it as a big threat.
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