STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies: Kelvin Universe' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. ThunderAeroI

    ThunderAeroI Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    It failed because it sucked. I'm sure you can't blame TLRTTT for how bad it was received. It just sucked.
     
  2. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    According to ERC on Twitter STiD made $8 million on Monday for a total of $91 million. It's a holiday in Canada, so that helps the daily take somewhat. Star Trek made $7.5 million on its first Monday. We'll get the full actuals in an hour or two.
     
  3. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Funny how similar the numbers are. I guess Paramount now has a top-end by which to calculate future budgets from.
     
  4. Vyse

    Vyse Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    I'm not blaming TTT, I'm just saying I think it was the combination of the two. Even if NEM was a good film, it would have been obliterated 5 days later by TTT.
     
  5. Xaios

    Xaios Commander Red Shirt

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    Hooboy, that is certainly a matter of opinion. I found every attempt at pathos in IM3 to be incredibly forced and ineffective, which is surprising because of how well it did work in IM1. Hell, it was more believable in IM2 than in IM3.

    Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the hell out of IM3 when I was in the theater, but it left me hollow once I left, and didn't stick with me at all. Knd of like the fortune cookie.
     
  6. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Members of boxoffice.com are guessing that Star Trek will follow 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' for the rest of its run.

    If that happens, Star Trek Into Darkness will finish with $190m
     
  7. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    This is pretty much how I've felt about all the Marvel movies except for the first Iron Man and Captain America.
     
  8. The Transformed Man

    The Transformed Man Commander Red Shirt

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    That's a bit of a leap. If the Moday number is accurate that would extrapolate to Trek hauling in some $27 million between Mon-Thurs giving it a total of $110 going into the four day weekend. Add another $40+ million for the four day Memorial Day weekend and Trek is at $150 minimum. The following week quite a number of schools are out so weekday numbers will probably run slightly higher. This is looking more like $225 minimum, probably just a little more. Then add international numbers and you're probably looking at a worldwide gross in the neighborhood of $450-470 million.


    Yancy
     
  9. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Following the legs of On Stranger Tides is plausible. A take in the low 40s for Memorial Day weekend would keep STiD on pace with Star Trek for the same number of days in release and would match the legs of Tides up to that point - Memorial Day weekend being the second weekend for both STiD and Tides, while it was the third weekend for Star Trek. STiD's third weekend is where we'll see whether it drops off Star Trek's pace and continues to track along the lines of Tides or whether it can keep up stronger legs. If it drops by 50-55% in its third weekend that'll have a ripple effect on the rest of its run and lead to a domestic gross tens of millions less than Star Trek, quite possibly ending up in the $190-210 million range. To have a shot at really strong legs that carries it to $220-230 million it'll need a really good third weekend hold.
     
  10. beamMe

    beamMe Commodore

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    Probably, should've, could've, expected... For god's sake!
     
  11. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Didn't see On Stranger Tides dire 3rd weekend drop! Fingers crossed Star Trek warps past $200m and does not parallel ONS. I do think the second weekend of STID will be a drop like POTC:ONS or worse because of the openers.

    Thats the nature of trying to predict the box office!
     
  12. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I think, and hope, the legs will be better than that and at least get to $210 million.

    Edit to add: BTC's tracking for Memorial Day weekend:

    The Hangover Part III - $100m 5-day (26/20/22/19.3/12.7)

    Fast & Furious 6 - $100m 4-day (32/28/23.5/16.5)

    Epic - $40m 4-day (8/12/11/9)

    Star Trek Into Darkness - $38.6m 3-day (which would put it in the low to mid-40s for the 4-day)

    Iron Man 3 - $21.5m 3-day

    The Great Gatsby - $14.4m 3-day
     
    Last edited: May 21, 2013
  13. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    If $38.6 3-day happens that will be a brilliant hold considering the competition.
     
  14. Borgminister

    Borgminister Admiral Moderator

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    That would definitely be nice...
     
  15. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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  16. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    I reckon Star Trek will be around $150 US Box Office by end of weekend. $230ish total target at this rate IMO though worldwide could take us over $450 mark (probably $50 million short of Paramount's hopeful target.)
     
  17. The Transformed Man

    The Transformed Man Commander Red Shirt

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    Also bear in mind there's a HUGE difference between Into Darknes and Stranger Tides where they stood after their intial release. Trek scored a Cinemascore rating of A, Stranger Tides word of mouth was much weaker with a B+, and generally U.S. audiences were not very enamored with the 4th film (did great overseas). Additionally Tides was savaged by critics scoring an initial Rottentomatoes rating of 42%, Trek's on the other hand has been very stable at 86% and the film has been well received by critics.

    Trying to tie the two together is a bit of a logic leap right now. Let's see how it holds up this weekend and how the intial returns are for next Tuesday and Wednesday before people start passing judgement. Those results will show what kind of legs Trek has or does not have.


    Yancy
     
  18. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    CinemaScores and reviews don't always match up with a film's legs. Gatsby is holding much better than its CinemaScore and reviews would indicate.

    But, as I said earlier, I think STiD will have better legs than Tides. Tides is just useful for laying out the lower range of what STiD could end up with.
     
  19. billcosby

    billcosby Commodore Commodore

    So... are we getting a third then, or not? :D I guess the four day weekend numbers aren't in yet?
    There may be a trickle effect... some may see it repeatedly and some couldn't see it this weekend. My wife and I got some of the last few seats Sunday night in the theatre.
     
  20. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Yes, there's going to be a third nuTrek movie.