Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.
My guess right now would be 300-325 domestic, 175-200 foreign.
What total do you think will make Paramount happy and willing to do a sequel with a larger budget? I'm thinking $500 million (though I think it will do $600 million worldwide).
There is still to debut good markets: Russia, Italy, France, Japan, Spain, Brazil, South Korea and China.
I still bet on 250-300 foreign and 350-400 (USA and Canada).
If China could surprise I think it will do $700 worldwide.
I have no idea how much they spent on marketing, but I can't imagine a $500m haul being a failure, unless they just way overspent I think that $500m would be considered a success, especially considering how much competition it is facing, being between Iron Man 3 and Furious 6, and close to Man of Steel. Also, I am sure that DVD/Blue Ray sales also figure into the equation.
I have nothing tangible to back this up with whatsoever, but my feeling is $500m is the minimum "crack open the champagne" finishing line Paramount is aiming for. Anything more - the party just gets bigger!
A broad rule of thumb these days is that a worldwide box office take of around 2.5X the production budget will make a sequel a no-brainer (unless domestic box office is especially weak and/or there's some behind the scenes troubles). So a worldwide box office take of around $450-460 million is the target for STiD. 3X the production budget - around $540-550 million - and they'll be doing cartwheels.
2X the production budget, while disappointing, can still lead to a sequel if DVD/Blu-ray sales are especially strong and if the box office is tilted towards domestic box office, but that sort of return will usually lead to cost-cutting and re-engineering.
That's good, I feel mostly confident that there will be a third movie It just seems like, since the new film franchise is really the only thing going right now, that if the movie bombs, it could simply be the end of Star Trek. I think that they really need to consider getting a new TV series on the air. Maybe one focusing on Starfleet Academy could be cool
I've read they've spent from 100m on marketing, but that seems way too high to me.
Though Trek blu ray in 2009 was a huge success, so that may factor into it.
$100 million for worldwide marketing and distribution is pretty standard for a summer blockbuster these days.
I'd guess that anything north of 450 million and they breathe a sigh of relief and commit to more Bad Robot Trek. I don't imagine they'll be thrilled if they fall short of 500, though.
It's possible Star Wars might help out a bit in such a case? Much like TDK, IM1 and TA seem to have propelled even the most mediocre of comic book movies to being box office draws.
I can't imagine Star Wars affecting this - Abrams's involvement in that would be a motivating factor for far too few people. Trufans, basically.
Now, if there were a trailer for the next SW movie attached to it...
I hope Star Wars fans come out for this one. If only to see how JJ does at sci fi
I also hope there's a lot of Cumberbatchers out there, too. Enough to bring a new audience to this film
STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS Now Projected For $100M+ Opening Weekend
Lookin good so far
Then add memorial day and good legs for 250 plus domestic!
hmmm i'd think they'd hope for 300m domestic at least considering the last one made 250m.
I would think that $300 mil domestic is realistic.
ComicBookMovie is notoriously sloppy with it's reporting - and that's putting it politely.
What The Wrap is actually reporting is essentially the same thing Out Of My Vulcan Mind already reported - over 100 million for the extended opening including Thursday.
You really are 'Admiral Buzzkill' aren't you? Extended opening or not, $100m sounds good, if it ends up being true! I think the movie will make $500m worldwide.
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