STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies: Kelvin Universe' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Certain box office patterns prevail for different types of films released at different times of the year. December releases tend to have smaller openings and longer legs than summer releases. Standalones or the first film in a series tend to have longer legs than sequels. There are always exceptions - and hopefully STiD turns out to be one of them - but the odds are against it.
     
  2. Phily B

    Phily B Commodore Commodore

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    If it doubles its budget with a good OS % a third will be greenlit, the problem is that no one can work out why this film is doing bad. There are guesses, but its confused everyone - some movies just do this.
     
  3. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

    It could be as simple as them putting it in between two franchises people were more willing to spend money on.
     
  4. Coloratura

    Coloratura Snuggle Princess Premium Member

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    Nothing goes down well with the fanboys, other than the same old stuff they covet feverishly, so they were right in simply not giving a shit. :shrug:
     
  5. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

    Is that 'double its production budget' ($180 million) or 'double what Paramount spent on it' ($280 million)?
     
  6. Phily B

    Phily B Commodore Commodore

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    Probably, but usually two weeks after IM3 is enough. Saying that, Fast 6 and Hangover 3 are going to be pretty big but I'm not sure that's an excuse. There will be a lot of head scratching going on over at Paramount, especially if overseas sees a 200m+ gross.
     
  7. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Yep. The underperformance of Kung Fu Panda 2 was a similar headscratcher.
     
  8. MacLeod

    MacLeod Admiral Admiral

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    Only time will tell,

    Box Office Mojo is now reporting Into Darkness at US$35.5m

    Sure other films are opening, but will they open big, and how much drop off will there be,

    For example

    Fast and Furious (2009)

    Opening US$89.3m
    Week 1 US$35.2m
    Week 2 US$14.7m
    Week 3 US$7.5m
    Week 4 US$3.5m

    Star Trek (2009)

    Adv Previous US$4m
    Open US$100.6m
    Week 1 US$57.0m
    Week 2 US$35.1m
    Week 3 US$17.7m
    Week 4 US$12.0m

    So it would appear that ST (2009) didn't suffer the same rate of dropoff as F&F (2009) did. However previous history is not an indication of the future as the releases were more apart.

    But of course Man of Steel looms on the horizon.
     
  9. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Star Trek operated more like an original in its box office pattern, while Fast & Furious operated like a typical sequel.
     
  10. Phily B

    Phily B Commodore Commodore

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    Maybe STID won't operate like a typical sequel, and will go along the lines of 09 though I doubt it. The reason people are "panicing" is because of the assumption it will operate like a sequel and unlike 09 see a massive drop, especially with Fast 6 next week and HO.

    STID is being really weird from what I can gather, you have people predicting upwards of 30m then others saying 20m. No one can figure it out?!
     
  11. Enterprise is Great

    Enterprise is Great Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    This is like Election night. The talking heads throw out all kinds of numbers, everyone's confused and eventually the outcome becomes clearer. No one really knows until the final numbers are in.
     
  12. Kpnuts

    Kpnuts Commodore Commodore

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    Star Trek 09 had novelty of being a reboot on its side, Into Darkness may just feel like 'yet another Trek film' to the masses, especially after a 4 year wait.
     
  13. Jax

    Jax Admiral Admiral

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    4 years was a long wait no doubt but if Trek came out last year "The Avengers" would of swallowed it up and spat it out even more than Iron Man 3 seemingly has. Paramount need to look at a possible chrsitmas slot in 2016 if its less heavy than Summer 2016.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2013
  14. Phily B

    Phily B Commodore Commodore

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    I don't think we need to worry about them shelving the franchise again, they'll just go back to the drawing board RE:marketing. They might've relied too much on 2009 being fresh, when it was four years ago - plenty of movies have come and gone since then. Overseas looks like it'll improve, and with the 50th anniversary coming up there should be a sequel no problem. As long as overseas does improve and the projections aren't wrong, then it should limp across 400m+.
     
  15. LOKAI of CHERON

    LOKAI of CHERON Commodore Commodore

    Damn, that really is very, very disappointing.
     
  16. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

    I knew when I liked it, the box office would immediately go in the toilet. :rofl:
     
  17. Kpnuts

    Kpnuts Commodore Commodore

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    I guess I'm finding it hard to understand how a Trek film that (potentially) does $400mil is disappointing. Especially since it cost $180mil to make.

    It is a bit depressing how the numbers don't seem to be adding up at this stage but Trek 09 was a very unexpected success, it did far better than Paramount or any of us were expecting. I think the freshness and novelty had a big part to play, sequels may do well but this film could be seen as Trek 12 by the masses. If it gets around the same as Trek 09 I don't think it should be considered a failure, regardless of inflation/3D etc
     
  18. BillJ

    BillJ Fleet Admiral Admiral

    You factor in a $100 million dollar advertising campaign and the theater share and it may not even break even at $400 million. :(
     
  19. Roald

    Roald Commander Red Shirt

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    When talking about a 'what a film has cost', advertising campaigns are not factored in, just like dvd/bluray sales are not factored in the film's 'total gross'... I am right about that.. :confused:
     
  20. LOKAI of CHERON

    LOKAI of CHERON Commodore Commodore

    I can't see how you can "factor out" marketing costs? Where would you divert that investment in the accounts? Unless Paramomt have an overall annual marketing budget for all releases, which could be accounted for separately.