STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. King Daniel Beyond

    King Daniel Beyond Admiral Admiral

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  2. Jeff O'Connor

    Jeff O'Connor Commodore Commodore

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    deadline.com/2013/05/star-trek-into-darkness-3d-opens-to-2m-late-night-and-imax/

    $22 million on Friday. Four-day ballpark now at $75.2.
     
  3. Jeff O'Connor

    Jeff O'Connor Commodore Commodore

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    ...I like the sounds of $83 more.
     
  4. Chrono85

    Chrono85 Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    I would say that doesn't seem too bad, with the higher overseas gross, but the movie only has a week to go before Fast and Furious is released! Maybe the movie will do very well on video :).
     
  5. DaveyNY

    DaveyNY Commodore Commodore

    I can see you're a half-empty kinda person.

    I'm with the "Let's Wait Till Monday" folks...

    Jumping-the-gun this early to be the first 'Doom-Sayer', is a bit much even for Trek fans.

    sheesh...
     
  6. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    It is a bad start, there is no way to spin these numbers positive. I seriously believe that $200m is in doubt at the moment because of the competition for the rest of May. Paramount picked the wrong date. Heads need to roll at Paramount. Lets hope for big big overseas numbers ASAP.
     
  7. Jeff O'Connor

    Jeff O'Connor Commodore Commodore

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    Well, here's the good news folks: every report out there is talking up the stellar international numbers. It looks like we'll be dealing with the same domestically and much better internationally, most likely, with the remote possibility for stronger legs bringing the domestic totals up higher than previously given reviews and word-of-mouth.

    Undoubtedly not the full-on increase Paramount wanted. But not a bomb by any means.
     
  8. Borgminister

    Borgminister Admiral Moderator

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  9. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Wow pretty amazing...the word of mouth is so good, and I see so many people seeing it. Ive decided to go see it again tonight.

    RAMA
     
  10. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I think we're looking at a domestic gross of $180 million on the low end and $215 million on the high end. With the way foreign grosses are shaping up, I think this will be the first Trek film to gross more in foreign markets than it does domestically.
     
  11. Chrono85

    Chrono85 Lieutenant Commander Red Shirt

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    I'm trying to remain positive, and I'd like to think that Trek fans should be positive folks in general. Star Trek is my fav TV/Film franchise, and I just want it to continue on, so I got a bit antsy :).
     
  12. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Who needs spin? We didnt need spin for ST09, and this will likely do a slightly better opening. Considering they screwed with the dates and its been 4 years since the last one, it looks to be doing pretty well. It's already done Close to $95 million worldwide up until Friday(more than half it's production cost in a week). That's way out ahead of what ST09 did.

    RAMA
     
  13. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    I hope so but like I said with the rest of the May openers I don't think it will get the same legs as Star Trek 2009.

    If it is 75 for the 4 day, that means $62m for the three day.

    Star Trek 2009 Multiplier was 3.42.

    If Star Trek into Darkness has the same legs as ST09 - 62x3.42 = 212m

    I think the multiplier will be about 2.8 because of competition being increased this time.

    STID - 62m x 2.8 = $173m

    So that is my prediction now, $173m

    Based on £173m we will need $212m from overseas to match $385m WW of ST09, which will be a disappointment for Paramount, or $327m for the target of $500m World wide. Long way to go yet!
     
  14. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Overseas numbers are great so far, I am referring to the weak US & Canada opening only.
     
  15. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Star Trek, as a relaunch, played like an original, with really great legs. Sequels typically have much shorter legs, so they need a really big opening to carry them to higher grosses. Unless STiD bucks that pattern, it's going to gross quite a bit less domestically than ST, which would be a real disappointment given the higher budget and the higher ticket prices, including 3D and IMAX ticket prices.
     
  16. Flake

    Flake Commodore Commodore

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    Deadline.com says $62 3-day / $75 4-day
    boxoffice.com says $68 / $81.5
    Hollywood reporter says $69.5 / $83

    WTF?! Which one? :)
     
  17. Robert_T_April

    Robert_T_April Captain Captain

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    What an utterly ridiculous thing to say! There will be Trek3 in time for Star Trek's 50th anniversary in 2016, and it is sure to be epic!
    This thread makes no sense to me because when all is said and done STID is going to turn a nice profit.
    Star Trek is alive and well.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2013
  18. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Box Office Mojo has $22 million as the Friday estimate.
     
  19. RAMA

    RAMA Admiral Admiral

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    Again, you can't say a slightly better opening than ST09 is weak, this is the movie series that had $20-30 million dollar openings.
     
  20. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    The box office environment has changed dramatically since the days of those $20-30 million openings, as have budget levels in general and the budget levels of Trek films specifically. And it's possible that STiD will have a slightly lower 4-day opening than Star Trek (which did $79.2 million from Thursday night through Sunday when it opened).