STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Discussion in 'Star Trek Movies XI+' started by RAMA, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. Opus

    Opus Commodore Commodore

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    Sooooo... a $5m movie needs to make $10m? A $60m movie needs to then make $120m? And a $250m movie needs to make $500m? Because marketing and distribution is that skewed?

    Bullshit.

    And anyone who buys that malarkey is simply unhinged.

    Worst. Accounting. EVER.
     
  2. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    To hit theatrical break-even on the production budget, yes, that's the case as a broad rule of thumb. A movie that misses theatrical breakeven can still turn a profit, though, via revenue from TV, DVD, etc. Plus some films can generate a lot of money in product placement and licensing fees for merchandising.

    For example, here are the pertinent parts of an article from Variety about Lions for Lambs in 2007:

    And here's Variety on Titanic in December 1997:

    And again in January 1998:

    And a more recent report, this one from CBS/AP, one of many such reports, on John Carter:

     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2013
  3. beamMe

    beamMe Commodore

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    The idea that a movie's published production budget has anything to do with what that film cost in reality is simply just laughable.
     
  4. Dart

    Dart Commodore Commodore

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    Yeah most of these budgets are guesses anyway. It's a made up formula, using made up variables.
     
  5. Belz...

    Belz... Commodore Commodore

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    I'm not sure I follow you. You seemed confused as to what I wanted when I suggested going with tickets sold, so I corrected you. For some reason you insisted, so I counter-insisted. I don't care at all for how empty a single theatre want, since what I'd like to know is how many times the movie was seen in its theatrical run.
     
  6. Keith1701

    Keith1701 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Do you think STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS can go back up the top movies listing to maybe 5 or 6 this weekend instead of 8 or below?
     
  7. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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  8. CorporalCaptain

    CorporalCaptain Admiral Admiral

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    "Who are you?"
    Clearly you don't follow. So there's a record of clarity, I'll recap, but this is getting tiresome.

    In post #2346, you commented on what I said in post #2345, by saying, "Yeah but nation- or worldwide would average that out."

    What you said there in post #2346 was not only conjectural and false (for the reason I stated in post #2365), but also, it warranted my saying so, because what I said in post #2345 was, in context, in response to a very particular question from another poster, whose question I even quoted in post #2345, that was asked in post #2340.

    Post #2345 wasn't about what you were talking about at all. The question in post #2340 was whether tickets sold is "the best" measure of popularity. You already indicated you knew it wasn't perfect in post #2337, where you also made it clear what you wanted to know. I don't know how it could have been any clearer.

    Everything so far between you and me after that point has been in this context. Just go back and reconsider post #2345. I really don't think I'm "confused as to what [you] wanted" as you say, since I wasn't even addressing you to begin with in post #2345!

    'K?
     
  9. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    The studios typically provide a budget figure to the media. That budget may or may not reflect reality. If anything the studios lowball. But the reported budget figure can be used to broadly establish how successful a film is and it can be used for purposes of figuring out whether a film has a shot at a sequel. If the worldwide gross isn't at least double the reported production budget then a direct sequel almost certainly isn't going to happen. I can only think of two films that got direct sequels despite grossing less than their reported production budgets, both Paramount releases: Star Trek: Insurrection and G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, and the latter was made on a reduced budget and with significant cast changes.

    An outside observer obviously doesn't know the granular details of any given movie's financial position, but there's enough coverage from journalists and financial analysts that the ecomomics of the movie industry aren't a complete mystery.
     
    Last edited: Jun 23, 2013
  10. Belz...

    Belz... Commodore Commodore

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    Yes it's clearly my fault for not understanding my own argument.

    Yeah, again because I want to know how many tickets were sold. I don't care about tickets not sold.

    You can be bothered to check the post numbers but not quote them ? I'm not going back and make your case for you.

    Well I guess that makes the whole discussion between us pointless, then.
     
  11. CorporalCaptain

    CorporalCaptain Admiral Admiral

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    OK, so let's move on.
     
  12. Neumann

    Neumann Captain Captain

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    Ok... moving on...

    How much will the movie make this weekend and next week?

    It looks like it will get to 235 MM at the end of its run.

    Am I right?
     
  13. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    The studio estimate for this weekend is $3 million, bringing the total so far to $216.6 million. $230-235 million looks like the end point.

    The updated international gross is $213.4 million, putting the worldwide gross at just under $430 million. We could be looking at a final worldwide gross of about $470-480 million.
     
  14. RAMA

    RAMA Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Domestic: $216,611,000
    + Foreign: $213,400,000
    —————————————-
    = Worldwide: $430,011,000
    Source: Box Office Mojo

    Adjusted top ST movies:

    STID: $430.011 million
    STTMP: $430 million
    ST09: $408 million

    Yeah, the top ST movie ever really underperformed...

    RAMA
     
  15. Opus

    Opus Commodore Commodore

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    And not taking into account studios "paying themselves" for renting soundstages, tax breaks...

    That and you cannot tell me marketing and distribution of a film equals the budget of a film. That's plain stupid math.
     
  16. Borgminister

    Borgminister Admiral Moderator

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    Depends on the domestic versus overseas profit margin, but yes, a third one's coming... :)
     
  17. Out Of My Vulcan Mind

    Out Of My Vulcan Mind Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Steven Soderbergh has been talking a lot lately about the financial state of the industry and how it's impacting what gets made. Here's one of the things he said recently:

     
  18. Belz...

    Belz... Commodore Commodore

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    Fine with me. No hard feelings.
     
  19. ralph

    ralph Captain Captain

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    I applaud the work of J. J. and the world attention he has brought to STID.
    Pine, Quinto, Zoe, Pegg and Cumberbatch won the attention of many people because of their performance.
    There will be more interested in Star Trek 3.
     
  20. Admiral Buzzkill

    Admiral Buzzkill Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Worldwide box office is at 430 million now.

    International gross is only about three million shy of domestic, BTW. When do you think it'll pass it - this week, next week?