Producers: Fringe Won’t Die in Friday Night Graveyard

It's a clever promo. On the one hand, it strikes a note of defiant optimism and makes light of the dire warnings, yet at the same time, it's calling attention to the risk of cancellation, thereby alerting viewers that if they want to save the show, they'd better stick with it.

 

Great promo!

“Strawberry-flavored death!” I had forgotten that bit. Where’s a site for Fringe quotes?

 

OK, lets actually look at this rationally.

The CW range of viewers for the last two years is on average 3.6 million to 1.6 million viewers.

The CW has had difficulty in getting enough programs to cover a ten hour schedule (so much so that the first year Smallville moved it ran with encores of Top Model for the full season).

The CW operates at a loss. It has never generated profit in its 5 years on the air.

These are all significant differences between Fox and the CW.

Fox is most likely not going to operate a show at a loss, unless one of two conditions are in place. THe first in performs so well in other formats that it generates more then enough to cover the difference. And that, that doesn't help Fringe at all, as Fox doesn't get a single dollar of revenue from other sources, Warners gets it. Or that it achieves ratings (that while negative to the cost) are so much higher that it benefits another legitimated owned product of Fox. And this could happen (but would be more likely to happen if Fringe was the 8pm hour as one could directly track retention), unfortunately Fox isn't the 8pm hour. And the networks have a large amount of data that shows the 8pm show has more direct impact on the 9pm shows, then the reverse (though the 9pm hour does impact the 8pm hour).

The fall before Smallville moved it was averaging a 1.7 in adults 18-49, when it moved a year later its Fall average dropped to a 1.1. It went from being the CW strongest performer in adults 18-49 to the 5th.

Another difference between the two. Fringe doesn't give the largest scripted audience and adult 18-49 numbers for Fox, far from it. So when it drops its not going from #1 down to a little better then middle of the road. Its going from near the bottom to the bottom.

I am sorry, because I do like Fringe, but its going to most likely be a very rough ride for the show, during this spring.

 

I can't record two Friday shows at once (VCR), so I am probably going to miss Fringe. I wish they didn't do this. I liked my shows spread out. There is so much crap on TV. Unless they moved Bones around, I get to turn the TV off on Thursdays.

 

I'm just starting the show now on DVD and while I might not be caught up by the time this rolls around, I can tell you I will be watching, even if I have to go to another room while it's on.

 

Good man!

 

And then doing the obvious.... canceling the show!

 

Haha I just noticed this on TV and I have to ask, why does Fox even bother with this exercise. Sending Fringe to Friday nights will mean lower ratings and therefore will give them a reason to cancel. It's just so pointless. I would rather they just tell the show creators, hey, this is your last season so make it good.

 

It's not that simple. The execs understand that Friday shows have smaller audiences, so they've lowered their expectations for success accordingly. A ratings figure that would be inadequate for Tuesdays could still be considered adequate for Fridays.

I think the current FOX regime has made it clear by now that they're not like their predecessors who were quick on the trigger. They're willing to give borderline shows every chance to succeed. They're not looking for excuses to cancel. Otherwise Dollhouse would've been cancelled midway through its first season rather than getting a second season and a chance to resolve its storyline.

 

Dollhouse got a second season for one reason....

"We are sorry the old people canceled your best show, so we will give your worst show a second season." - Fox

Fringe is watched more by people with DVRs, if they watch it within 7 days then it counts on the ratings. So Fox moved it to Fridays because they figured everyone DVRs it anyways.

However it should have never have been moved to Thursdays after Bones anyways, how is that a better fit than House? Should have been moved back to Mondays last season.

 

Not true. These are businesspeople; they make decisions based on money, not sympathy. They renewed Dollhouse because the production of "Epitaph One" for the DVD set proved to them that a second season could be produced at far lower cost if it used the same techniques. Renewal decisions come down to a simple question of whether the projected ad revenues (based on ratings) outweigh the cost of making the show. If you slash the cost of the show, then the scale tips toward renewal even if the ratings stay the same.

People come up with all sorts of bizarre explanations for why network executives make the choices they do, but it's all nonsense unless you remember that the decisions are always about money. All else being equal, a cheaper show will get renewed while a costlier show will get cancelled. That's why TV is so full of reality shows -- because they're inexpensive to make.

It's also untrue to call Dollhouse Whedon's worst show. In many ways, it was his finest creation ever, certainly his most sophisticated and fully realized science fiction concept and his most philosophically dense and challenging premise.

 

Uh, no. TV does not work that way.

 

Fox gave Dollhouse a 2nd season because it was very cheap to make and only 13 episodes but there mistake was the shows demo audience wasn't in on fridays and it had awful lead in.

I want Fringe to get at least a 15 episode 4th season because thats 80 episodes, a decent number overall for any show but I can't see it happening.

 

You'd have better luck talking a bomb into not exploding.

 

Dollhouse was renewed due to the show having its budget slashed dramatically (it also served the purpose to see how Dollhouse would do on DVD release, as Firefly did extremely well, and unlike Fringe Fox got that revenue.)

Fringe's DVR numbers don't really help the show (and I wish people understood that more).

First anything after three days generates absolutely no real revenue.

Ad rates are sent off of C3 ratings (Commercial viewing up to day 3), not C7.

Live Plus 7 registers those that watch the program, not those that watch the commercials. Ad buyers don't give a rats ass how many people actually watch the show (except for product placement which I have no idea how Fringe does in this arena, though I know it isn't one of the shows that rely heavily on product placement).

People who watch live are more likely to watch a commercial. People who use their DVR (even if same day) are more likely to skip a commercial. Meaning if you use your DVR (and of course are a family that's monitored), and skip commercials you aren't included in the C3.

live Same Day, Live Plus 7 don't have any real impact to the actually ratings that determine which shows are going to survive or those that are going to be cancelled.

The public almost never gets to see C3 data. The only week I have ever seen even get released to us the public has been the results of the first week of the season. And Fringe's C3 were in line with its live same day numbers, meaning its commercial ratings (again only for one week) did not see the gain that we see from DVR use. Meaning most people who used their DVR's didn't watch the commercials.

Live Plus 7 are basically PR numbers for the network as they have very little real value, except in showing how many people actually watch the show in a given week. But it also highlights for the networks how many people don't consider it their first choice show to watch in that time period.

Of course, the main thing we don't know and this is important, is what is the threshold FOX is looking for to keep the show next year.

It is absolutely true that the threshold is lower on Friday then all but Saturday (and no one actually programs real original programming on Saturday, and no I don't consider Cops real programming).

So the real point is can Fringe not only get ratings to meet whatever threshold FOX has decided upon, and manage to show that it can perform better then Kitchen Nightmares to the degree to offset the difference between the two shows license Fees (I would assume that Fringe is considerable more expensive).

Now for some good news, at least Fox is doing some real advertising for the move, thats a nice solid bone to throw at the show.

 

Network tv doesn't work that way. They operate like Rick Berman (they like everything, and everything is fine). They will never out and out tell you that a show sucks (ratings wise, or for that matter creatively), until they make their final choice. And sense they don't have any actual data, they can't make the claim.

While everything that has moved to Fridays as dropped in ratings, every once in a great, great, great while a show can manage to meet the ratings threshold necessary to keep it alive.

They also will never say (unless a show is ending to due to cost (typically the natural end to a show) or casting, something like Lost or Smallville for example), this is the last year tie everything up.

This can cause viewers to either take notice and bump up ratings, it can also cause viewers to stop watching. They wont due that to any show unless they know absolutely that this is the last year. It isn't worth the risk.