MLB Offseason 2012

Discussion in 'Sports and Fitness' started by Mr. Laser Beam, Oct 30, 2012.

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  1. Dale Sams

    Dale Sams Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    My 2014 ballot would be, in no particular order

    Maddux
    Glavine
    Thomas
    Kent
    Bagwell
    Biggio
    Schilling
    Piazza
    Clemens
    Bonds

    More if I had more room...
     
  2. Pegaritaville

    Pegaritaville Vice Admiral Premium Member

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    I was hoping Jack Morris would get voted in. Thought he had a good shot this year. I guess after being on the ballot for 14 years, he's kind of been forgotten.
     
  3. Kirby

    Kirby Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    ^^ Same with Dale Murphy, I believe this was his final year of eligiblity.
     
  4. Timby

    Timby LIKE LIGHTNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING Administrator

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    Morris is an absolutely terrible Hall of Fame candidate. JAWS has him as the 167th best starting pitching candidate for the Hall. Let's say that method is massively unkind to Morris and he's actually in the 60s; only one person from 60-69 is in, and all but Eddie Cicotte are eligible. He'd instantly become one of the worst pitchers in the Hall. I'd be hard-pressed to even call him a borderline candidate; he belongs in the Hall of Good.

    The following pitchers were better than Jack Morris, statistically speaking, in roughly the same era and didn't have a prayer at getting into the Hall: Dave Stieb, David Cone, Kevin Brown, Orel Hershiser, Brett Saberhagen, David Wells, Kevin Appier. I can't think of a single statistical argument for Morris in the Hall.

    Maddux, Thomas and Glavine are all perceived as completely clean on steroids and way, way over the statistical markers, they should coast in and I would expect Maddux to have one of the highest vote totals in history (though he won't beat Seaver, thanks to the jackasses who return blank ballots).

    Kind of bummed that Kenny Lofton was a one-and-done.

    In any event, I want to know who submitted a vote for Aaron fuckin' Sele. :lol:
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2013
  5. Dale Sams

    Dale Sams Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Thomas will get lost in the shuffle...at BBTF there's some real concern that Kent will be one and done, which would be a tragedy. My prediction is that he'll stay on the ballot but not top 30%.
     
  6. Timby

    Timby LIKE LIGHTNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING Administrator

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    Frank Thomas has the hardware, stats, and the track record of speaking out against steroids / in favor of more player testing (I think he was submitting his piss tests to an independent lab as early as like 1995), which I think will help his case among the self-righteous assholes who comprise the BBWAA.

    Of course, after this year's MVP voting and the absurd Hall voting, I have no idea what to expect from the BBWAA anymore.
     
  7. Scout101

    Scout101 Admiral Admiral

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    Why?

    Not just why first ballot, but what's the argument that he belongs at all?

    3000 hits is really his claim, but when you play 20 years, is that really impressive? Only had 200 hits in a season once, only hit over .300 3 or 4 times, never really had those big HoF seasons, just a nice player for a long time. Hall of Very Good, not sure Hall of Fame.

    Anyone ever afraid of facing him? Ever really dominate the league in anything? MVP? More then a handful of All-Star appearances? Carry a team through a World Series or two?

    Baseball's funny with the importance of stats, and especially the 'counting' stats as a requirement for HoF entrance. 3000 hits, 500 HRs, 300 wins, etc. With shorter careers, those were biggies, but with the 20+ year careers, not impressed by being merely decent for a long time. You can wax poetic over Babe Ruth, or Mantle, Ted Williams, etc. Anyone really excited about seeing Biggio play?

    I'm a 'meh' on that one.

    Call me a Red Sox homer, but I put more importance on Schilling's post-season heroics (while falling short on counting stats) over Biggio making the 3000 hits but never really carrying a team or 3 on his back, being dominant. Not sure either really HAS to be in or out, just think I'd rather see Schilling if I had to pick just one. 2001, 2004, 2007, Bloody Sock game, ending Boston's drought, etc...
     
  8. Timby

    Timby LIKE LIGHTNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING Administrator

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    Biggio's a tough call; I actually expected him to have a fairly easy election outside of the "NO FIRST-TIME BALLOT" jackasses. He was one of the faces of the Astros for a long time along with Bagwell, he never complained from having to move from being an all-star catcher to being an all-star 2B (to being an atrocious outfielder), and I sometimes think he doesn't get nearly enough credit for how well he made that transition -- he went from being a beast of a catcher to being an absolute beast of a 2B, when most converted catchers wind up at first or at the DH because their mobility is already gone. In any event the only players with at least 3,000 hits who aren't in the Hall are Palmeiro (who will never get in and I fully expect him to drop off the ballot within five years) and Rose (who is Rose).

    He does certainly have some knocks on him, though. His playing forever destroyed his rate stats, his WAR-based stats are good / not great, and he doesn't have great narrative value unless you're Bill James.

    That being said, I think he'll get in eventually, but it's certainly plausible that he could have to wait until as late as 2016. The 2014 ballot adds Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Mussina and Kent; 2015 adds the Big Unit, Pedro Martinez, Smoltz and Sheffield. However, in 2016 it calms down to just Junior Griffey and Jim Edmonds. That's a lot of facially similar or better candidates Biggio will be competing with.

    I'm astounded by how poorly Bonds did, though. It just goes to show important being nice to sportswriters is. I'm crossing sports, here, but Ray Lewis was involved in a double murder and lied to the cops, yet is hailed as an all-American hero, while Barry Bonds was surly and maybe took dinger juice, but he only murdered baseballs and is considered a pariah.

    Fun Bonds fact I realized a while back: He entered the 1992 season with more WAR under his belt than Jack Morris racked up in his entire career.
     
  9. Kirby

    Kirby Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Because I like him....

    I know from a statistical standpoint he made it because of his longevity, and he probably isn't really a 1st ballot guy, but I respect the hell out him for being an all star catcher and then converting to 2nd base where most catchers go to either 1st base or right field, and became a multiple all star at that position.
    He's also the only player with 3000+ hits, 600+ doubles, 400+ stolen bases, and 250+ homeruns.

    He was never the stereotypical studly hero player, but he went about his business every day and amassed some great numbers and there's never been any speculation that he never took steroids.

    For the Record, I'm not an Astros homer, so this just isn't fanboy stuff. I've lived in Colorado most of my life and my teams are the Rockies and the Twins (because I hate myself). I just admire the guy's work.
     
  10. Timby

    Timby LIKE LIGHTNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING Administrator

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    I'm also not really sure I buy the longevity argument against Biggo, now that I think about it; granted, the season lengths were different in some cases, but Cap Anson played for 26 years, Al Kaline 21, Rickey Henderson 24, Dave Winfield 22, and they're all in the Hall (on the first ballot, no less) and near / around Biggio's lifetime hit total.
     
  11. Tom Hendricks

    Tom Hendricks Ooohhhhhh, Navy Seals. Premium Member

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    When I read this earlier today, I said to myself that Timby was gonna post something about it on here. Yup, I was right, even close to what I thought you were gonna say.
     
  12. Alidar Jarok

    Alidar Jarok Everything in moderation but moderation Moderator

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    As usual, the esteemed Nate Silver says it best (link). Basically, it talks about how Clemens and Bonds should make it even if you ignore the steroids years, while McGwire and Palmeiro would not:

    In addition, he talks about players who were punished for suspicion of steroids:

     
  13. Dale Sams

    Dale Sams Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Biggio is a HOFer based on position, you don't compare him to Mantle, Ruth...or Schilling.
     
  14. Timby

    Timby LIKE LIGHTNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING Administrator

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    Yeah, the argument of "steroids = magic dinger juice" has never held water with me. Melky Cabrera tested positive just this past season, and all he can do is slap-hit a shit-ton of singles. The "steroid era" thing is just an excuse for the BBWAA to get self-righteous and indignant against the sabermetric crowd, whom they still largely believe to live in their Mom's basement and never watch actual baseball.

    Clemens and Bonds (well, mostly for the latter) were cleared in courts of law, also.
     
  15. Aragorn

    Aragorn Admiral Admiral

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    The Hall of Fame voting is just a way for the BBWAA to make it about themselves and their agendas. Why don't people vote for obvious Hall of Famers like Rickey Henderson? Is Tom Seaver the greatest baseball player of all time since he has the biggest voter percentage ever? What did Jim Rice suddenly do in year fifteen of eligibility that he didn't do the previous fourteen years?
     
  16. Pegaritaville

    Pegaritaville Vice Admiral Premium Member

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    Morris may not have the best stats, but he was a dominant pitcher in his era and his 175 complete games certainly stands out (and may explain his rather high career 3.92 ERA). He was also the top pitcher on three teams that went on to win the World Series (Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto). As a Twins fan I may be biased, but if you look at more than just stats, I think Morris belongs.
     
  17. R. Star

    R. Star Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Well I'm from Texas, so even if I'm not an Astros fan I was exposed to Biggio quite often. Sure he wasn't going to win any MVPs, but he was solidly good and he was solidly good hiw whole career. I'd take that over the guy who wins a couple MVPs in his 20's then falls off the radar in his 30's.

    His longevity definitely should be a factor. Another factor is that he's a second baseman. If Ryne Sandberg(whose team I am a fan of) can get in based on his numbers as a second baseman, why the heck can't Biggio whose numbers are better?

    With Sosa getting the same treatment as McGwire and Palmeiro, and Bonds and Clemens getting only a third of the vote, if anything about the hall has changed, I'd say it's the 500 home runs get you elected automatically. Sosa's numbers really surprised me given he did get along with the media and didn't seem as tainted by the steroid brush as Clemens and Bonds.

    Next year will be interesting. Maddux and Glavine, have to command enough votes to get in on the first ballot... I can't believe anyone would think either of these lanky fellows with their 80's fastballs were juicing. Kent, Mussina and Thomas are no slouches either and would all get a number of votes. So if anything on paper it would seem that the freshmen of this year's ballot would have a harder time getting in. Though that might be offset a bit by the writers who just won't vote for Babe Ruth on the first ballot.

    Should be interesting to say the least in the next few years.
     
  18. Timby

    Timby LIKE LIGHTNIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIING Administrator

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    He hung around on the ballot a lot longer than anyone expected to, and the Red Sox started a massive PR campaign to get him elected, primarily through Dan Shaughnessy, since they have their arm so far up his ass they can move a finger and make him sing "Yankee Doodle Dandy" on command. That's another guy who really doesn't belong -- "most feared hitter," my ass. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 43 more times in a single season than Jim Rice was in his whole career. J-Rice is 191st in career intentional walks, tied with legends of the game like Geoff Jenkins and Clay Dalrymple, and they didn't even start counting them until the mid-1950s, so there are plenty of more guys that would be ahead of Rice if their numbers weren't lost to time. The most feared hitter of Rice's era was George Brett or Mike Schmidt, not Rice.

    But, again, ~narrative~.

    Nobody can seriously say that Jack Morris was the best pitcher in baseball for any substantial length of time, or even any year, because he wasn't. Even though Morris is the guy usually used as a counterweight to "compiler" Bert Blyleven, he's actually the biggest compiler of them all. His best ERA+ in a season was 127; despite his wins and Cy votes, he never really had a great season. He had a decent-length career with good run support and compiled a bunch of wins without ever being really good.

    I ... I don't even know how to parse this when we're talking about whether a player belongs in the Hall of Fame, which is a distinction based entirely upon statistics. I mean, I've seen the "best postseason pitcher ever" argument made (and it's already wrong on its face, because that's either Schilling or Mariano Rivera), but it has no standing when you look at the numbers; Morris pitched about as well in the postseason as he did in the regular season, and his one great shining moment that everyone remembers had more to do with Lonnie Smith's baserunning than Morris's pitching.

    Jamie Moyer has more wins than Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Ford and Morris, and has remarkably similar rate statistics to Morris in more innings. Every argument not involving the phrase "Game 7" that you can make in support of Jack Morris can be made in favor of Jamie Moyer, but better. Does anyone think Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Famer?

    Sosa was in the leaked 2003 report of players who pissed hot and there was the corked bat incident, plus writers have never been too kind to him after the way he left Chicago. Statistically, he'd be a borderline candidate outside of the home runs, too -- that .273 average and oh my God the strikeouts work against him.
     
    Last edited: Jan 10, 2013
  19. R. Star

    R. Star Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Morris? Maybe the Veterans committee will eventually let him in, by all accounts they seem to be more easy going on who is and isn't qualified than the writers. I don't see him pulling off a year 15 upset the way Rice did. Especially when you got Maddux and Glavine was write-ins already most likely. Morris always seemed good, but not great to me. Post seasons aren't supposed to count, and I'm not sure what "more" than the stats one should look at.
     
  20. Dale Sams

    Dale Sams Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Dan Petry was arguably better than Morris on the Detroit team. Morris was NOT the best pitcher on that Twins team, regular season, and he had half the WAR Guzman did on the Toronto team.
     
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