# Envisioning the world of 2100

Discussion in 'Science and Technology' started by RAMA, Aug 9, 2012.

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Mar 8, 2001
A lot like the world of 1900, and that's if we're lucky.

Some people will have gadgets they're attached to and that occupy their time, though.

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I find it impossible to pretend to have any idea what the world will be like 100 years from now.

All I have to do is pretend that I lived 100 years ago and ask myself the same question. What will the world be like in the year 2000? The world has changed so much in the last 100 years. Advents in technology alone have been absolutely incredible. I can't even begin to imagine what will come in the 100 years to follow.

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Are you really not aware that your first set of predictions is utterly inconsistent with the second?

4. ### Ryan8bitCommodoreCommodore

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I don't think that's really Occam's razor. It's not just about picking what's simplest, but on what makes the least amount of wild assumptions. I'd say a logarithmic curve makes less assumptions, and an exponential curve makes too many.

Regardless, even if the predictions of when it happens are on a slightly different curve, that doesn't rule that level of technology out. There are many more problems with the concept of a singularity, mostly with the correlation that processing power equals intelligence.

I have to side with Newtype. I suspect the US will go the way of 18th century France, or Blade Runners future. The rich and powerful living behind walls or atop tall buildings in luxury, while the rest of us struggle just to survive while supporting them.

I miss the days when I was young and still optimistic about the future.

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Aug 17, 2010
I guess you mean logistic, since a logarithmic curve is identical to an exponential curve with switched axes. A logistic dependency is more complex, making more assumptions, by all counts:
- A logistic dependency is just like an exponential dependency with saturation accounted for. The former assumes there's saturation, the latter doesn't.
- The formula is more complex to write, the curve is more complex to draw.
- When generalised, it has more parameters.
- The exponent is the mathematical function. It's pretty much the simplest and it is pretty much everywhere.
- And most of all: A logistic function has an exponential function in its definition.

A logistic curve is simpler than an exponential curve in the same way that crashing on Mercury unaided is simpler than landing on Mercury with retrorockets – not at all. It's the latter that assumes the rockets will actually fire.

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T'Girl
How so? The first prediction is world wide, the second involves only the US. If we continue to exist as a nation things will be good, consistent with the world wide prediction.

If the nation dissolves, then portions will succeed, while others will be worse off, but will still be "developed" by the current meaning, but at the same time struggling in comparison to their neighbors. Think UK and Germany, verses Greece and Spain.

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Which is just a complicated way of saying "Everything will get better... unless it doesn't."

9. ### Ryan8bitCommodoreCommodore

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It's not about simplicity. That's not what Occam's Razor says. It's about making the least amount of assumptions.

One thing that we see in many different aspects of the world is growth eventually plateauing. We don't see a whole lot that just keeps on exponentially growing. With that knowledge, a logistic curve (not logarithmic, my bad) is the one that most commonly occurs. That doesn't make it right, but it is more probable than exponential, which makes too many assumptions, and most of all invokes something similar to the gambler's fallacy.

10. ### Robert MaxwellComfortably NumbPremium Member

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where it hurts
An exponential curve assumes endless advancement of technology and infinite resources. That alone makes it highly suspect. Technology can only advance to the extent that resources allow, and we are approaching a crunch in numerous resources over the next several generations: oil, fresh water, phosphates, rare earth metals, the list goes on. A logistic curve therefore makes plenty of sense. It is foolish to think our technological growth will never top out.

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Mar 12, 2005
Bolding for emphasis. No, it's our job to make the world the best it can be to hand on to them. They mess it up, that's their problem, but we shouldn't expect them to fix our mess up.

I still think the Singularity is going to happen, if - and it is a crucial if - we can overcome the energy problems, which we are capable of doing of the will is there.

One reason I think the Singularity is coming is things like the following article, which is much closer in time frame. Some of the comments at the end are interesting too.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/mobile/t...=2045&_s=ffffffff-ffff-ffff-ffff-ffffffffffff

Last edited: Aug 25, 2012

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Mar 8, 2001
The only persuasive prediction in that article is the disappearance of credit cards.

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Why is it that almost everyone I have ever met who believes in the approaching singularity seems to be an extremely avid reader of pop-sci magazines?

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A Long Time Ago...
Seriously? That's not an article. It's a list of bad assumptions. Almost every thing in it was wrong.

ETA: Was that webpage designed by a kindergartener from 1993?

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Aug 17, 2010
Who cares about autonomous cars and reality shows on Mars, when in 2063 we're breaking the warp barrier?

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Mar 12, 2005
Yeah, something weird happened to the formatting after I read it.

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QC, IL, USA
I'm worried about the disappearance of credit cards. How am I supposed to start you a tab at my bar? I need something to hold on to just in case you get wasted and walk out!

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Mar 22, 2010
I think technology for transportation will come at a slower pace. Folks then will look back on our love of fabulous sci-fi tech like FTL in ST and SW as being quaint--while building Foundation's Future. Now winged craft for space, but larger capsules with greater capability, like this uber capsule: http://www.frassanito.com/work/images/planning02.jpg

19. ### Robert MaxwellComfortably NumbPremium Member

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where it hurts
You scan their credit chip or whatever before you serve them anything.