A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

Discussion in 'Science Fiction & Fantasy' started by Out Of My Vulcan Mind, Apr 21, 2011.

  1. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    To have Jon or Dany on the iron throne would be too predictable, I hope both have more interesting fates than that. Especially because they're the two most traditional fantasy characters GRRM has written. It's why they're 2 of the most popular.
     
  2. Tom Hendricks

    Tom Hendricks See where the sky meets the sea, It calls me Premium Member

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    I think Jon will become the King beyond the Wall...
     
  3. CaptainCanada

    CaptainCanada Admiral Admiral

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    That's pretty much a defunct office now. The Wildlings are done as a distinct culture, whatever happens. They've crossed the Wall and sworn allegiance to the throne, and are talking about settling. That's a mammoth cultural shift.
     
  4. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    I assume Jon will stay with the Night's Watch, or leave the physical plain of existence after fulfilling his messianic duties as Azor Ahai.
     
  5. Venardhi

    Venardhi Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I suspect neither the watch or the wall will exist by the end of the series.
     
  6. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Hopefully The Windows of Winter ends with the Wall falling.

    Though I have a horrible feeling it will end with Victarion and Dany arriving at Meereen.
     
  7. Brendan Moody

    Brendan Moody Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Victarion arrives at Meereen in one of the already-released preview chapters from the beginning of the book, so you don't need to worry about that. Dany may take longer... if she goes back to Meereen at all, which I'm beginning to wonder about.
     
  8. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Ah, I aint read 'em just yet in case they're the last A Song of Ice and Fire we ever get. I'm fairly sure we'll probably get Winds of Winter. The final book though? I have my very strong doubts.

    The show is ended this story. Bank on it.
     
  9. Brendan Moody

    Brendan Moody Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I don't really doubt he'll finish the series-- even if it takes three more books written at the creeping pace of the last dozen years, he won't even be 80, which isn't really that old by the standards of modern millionaire medicine. Barring a miracle the show will get there first, but the books will be along eventually. Unless Martin gets hit by a bus or something, but that could happen with any series at any time.
     
  10. 137th Gebirg

    137th Gebirg Vice Admiral Premium Member

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    ^^^ He ain't the healthiest person in the world, though, God bless him. I wouldn't wish an untimely end on anyone, but I fear his blood-to-Crisco ratio may be his undoing before the finale is complete. I really hope he has an outline written down in a vault somewhere that can be opened and used (at the very least, by the show), to bring about a decent as-intended-by-the-writer ending. GRRM designating an heir-apparent to finishing the written stories may also be a smart idea as well.
     
  11. Captaindemotion

    Captaindemotion Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I hope George lives until a ripe old age but given that Mel Smith, James Gandolfini and Dennis Farina have all recently died before hitting 70, I wouldn't be so sanguine about the link between wealth and longevity.
     
  12. Shurik

    Shurik Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Martin said that no one will finish the books if he, God forbid, dies before he could finish them. The story will die with him.

    I think TWOW will be out someday, late 2015 at the earliest, but I too seriously doubt that we'll see the end of the story in the books, not because of health issues, but because he'll completely lose any interest he still has in writing when the TV show catches up with him and finishes the story before him. The ending of the TV show will probably be the canon.
     
  13. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    George has stated a hundred times in interviews that he can only write at home. Due to having become a megastar in the past 2 years, he's never at home. He recently stated he was only a quarter of the way through the next book, which is likely in of itself an exaggeration judging by his past claims on the progress on A Dance With Dragons.

    I think there's a very fair chance the books won't be finished, and to save myself some serious disappointment I'm going along with that for now.
     
  14. Shurik

    Shurik Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    And two years have passed since ADWD was released. Extrapolation is a tricky thing and pretty worthless when dealing with writing, but 1/4 of a book in 2 years doesn't sound particularly good. Especially if part of this are the chapters he cut from ADWD which will probably be rewritten beyond recognition by the time he finishes the book.
     
  15. Brendan Moody

    Brendan Moody Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Obviously wealth isn't a guarantee of anything; if you have a sudden massive heart attack (Smith, Gandolfini) or a pulmonary embolism as a cancer complication (Farina) treatment options are limited. My point is that for treatable, non-sudden illness, wealth opens a great many doors. It won't necessarily save you; Robert Jordan didn't even make it to the median life expectancy for someone with his illness. But let's not pretend that naming a few rich people who died young disproves a connection between wealth and longevity. Or, for that matter, that being visibly overweight automatically creates a major health risk. If we want to be morbid about it, anyone can die at any time with no warning. I also doubt that, after committing twenty years of his life and counting to this project, he'll suddenly get bored because a stripped-down version of the story is told in another medium.

    But if people would rather be pessimistic, I'm fine with that; I've spent the past two years encouraging people not to imagine that The Winds of Winter would come out before 2015. Even then, though, I don't see any reason to doubt the quarter-done claim; he had enough pages, including drafts, for that to be true at this time last year. I don't know whether "a quarter done" is based on his usual measure of (nominally) finalized chapters only. He consistently misestimated how much time it would take him to complete Feast and Dance, which is why he stopped making such estimates, but he's never made an exaggerated claim about how much was done that I know of.

    The quarter-done quote, by the way, came at a TV show red-carpet event in mid-March, and Martin didn't start work on The Winds of Winter until early 2012. So it's more like 1/4 in 1.25 years, discounting the stuff left over from Dance. At that pace, Winds would take about as long to finish as Dance, which had even more leftovers to start with. To be frank, though, even that's misleading, since much of Martin's work in 2012 was on finishing his contribution to the world book, for which he produced about 250,000 words, five times what was originally intended, so much that even after splitting some of it off into a novella for his Dangerous Women anthology, more had to be put aside for use in a possible future encyclopedia-type volume.
     
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2013
  16. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    I don't think we're being pessimistic, just realistic. GRRM is now a rich megastar who spends huge chunks of his time travelling the world, attending press events and such, reaping the rewards of his fame. This makes it hard to get much writing done, for a man who can only write at home. When the TV show ends the series, I think he'll be even less motivated to write.

    I love GRRM, he's one of my favourite authors, and I think he was set to match Tolkien's quality after the success of his first 3 ASOIAF books. I do think though that he's slowly let his legacy slide further and further away from him since the year 2000.
     
  17. Brendan Moody

    Brendan Moody Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I think you're wildly overestimating the amount of time he's away from home; he cut back on appearances a couple years ago, specifically because they took up too much writing time. He does promotional stuff for the show when each season starts, and goes to a few conventions (some of them local) every year, but that's not "huge chunks"... unless you're a pessimist. ;) And if he were really worried about the show ruining his ending, he wouldn't still be giving the producers details about what's to come so they can undermine him further. All you have to do is look at the writing-related posts on his blog to get that this is not someone in search of motivation to work. He's slow, he took on too many other projects after finishing Dance, and he easily loses control of project length. That's the story.
     
  18. Captaindemotion

    Captaindemotion Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I certainly hope you're right Brendan. I just think the alternative cannot be dismissed as naysaying or doom and gloom, given his age and girth. But maybe we should discuss the books instead.
     
  19. DalekJim

    DalekJim Fleet Captain Fleet Captain

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    Well, right now I'm predicting that Winds of Winter is released 2017, and we never get the final book. I'd love more than anything to be proven wrong, but very little evidence exists to encourage me. It's embarrassing enough for him that he allowed a TV adaptation to be made, and it's going to beat him.

    Ideally, we'd have had AFFC/ADWD as one book in 2005, then Winds of Winter in 2010 or whatever, then we'd be awaiting the final book right now to arrive before the show ends. As it stands, we're getting a pretty clunky, unclean ending to the series. If the final book ever does arrive, we'll already know what happens in it.
     
  20. Brendan Moody

    Brendan Moody Vice Admiral Admiral

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    Well, I don't think acknowledging that he might die or lose his motivation is "naysaying" or "doom and gloom." That might happen with any author, and is a good reason not to read ongoing series, especially very long ones that are written slowly. (There are fantasy fans who won't touch new epic series for this very reason.) And we all have instincts about what's likely that are irrational but hard to shake. As with anything, no one really knows what tomorrow will bring.

    I don't think 2017 is out of the question for Winds, either.

    I think allowing an adaptation while the show was ongoing was a poor decision in a lot of ways. I understand, of course, that you have to pursue network interest when it exists, but the show has exacerbated delays in the books, and is probably going to have a rough time itself constructing an ending without source material.