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Old August 3 2008, 10:50 PM   #181
Nerdius Maximus
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Re: X-Files Bombs

I saw it this afternoon and loved it. I predict that it will find its audience when it comes to dvd.
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Old August 3 2008, 11:20 PM   #182
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Positive

Despite the negative people in this thread, I just have a feeling that there will be another film. For those who haven't seen it, read the interview with Frank Spotnitz at http://www.ifmagazine.com/feature.asp?article=2918.
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Old August 3 2008, 11:29 PM   #183
mswood
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Re: X-Files Bombs

Advertising and print cost are never really reported for World Wide. You can often get US advertising and print cost.

I'am using 20 million for that (just for speculation), because the people who religiously post on Box office Mojo and follow all pictures year round use that for low budget films (of which this certainly qualifies), it can easily go over 100 million for huge films (of which this isn't). Most blockbusters spend about 60 of ads.

Fox spent was up front about this film. It was made on a low budget to test if there was interest in a possible franchise for the X-Files after the long period between the last (ie after the lawsuits were offer) and to also see how the absence of Duchovny might have impacted the fan base.

Carter knew upfront that they would not have the money for an mythology film. Nor would they have money for an makeup intense creature film. That left them with something that didn't do that often on the show (but did do them, and sometimes exceptional well) human monsters and character pieces.

On the character front I think they filmed worked well (except for the code, WTF). On the human monster side, I think it was far less successful).

I think this film also suffers (I would guess to the tune of about 10-15 million US box office) of being released in the wrong season. This screams for the late September through Halloween season.

If this ends at the 22-26 million range in the US (as I have speculated) you can estimate that the studio will get about 13.5 million of that to apply to the filming (30 million), marketing and printing cost (again assume at least 20 million).

That leaves the film with an additional 38 million minimum needed to even break even.

Will the film do that between Overseas gross (already 9 million of which they should get about 4.8) and home markets (DVD primarily and minor like cable broadcasts)? It should easily be able to do that.

But again, X-Files is not a proven film franchise. Not at all. This isn't a Bond film, or a Trek film where almost every film has just broke even. This is where most films just off the theatres has generated profit.

Film companies (ant their financial backers) don't tend to see a film that just breaks even with a little profit to be a vehicle to keep producing. It just doesn't happen.

Now of course, DVD sales can generate huge profits of which the film studios make a higher profit level then film distrubtion. But will this film do well enough to make them take a sizable monetary risk for another more expensive (which it most likely would be as everything gets more expensive with time)?

Who knows, that we won't know for a while. How about Overseas box office? Again to soon to know. It isn't doing great, but in the markets it has opened it is doing slightly better then what it is doing in the US. But I would assume that it overseas gross won't go over 60 million.

But unless it does play better (much better) in one of those two markets, we as fans will not be getting another X-Files film.
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Old August 3 2008, 11:32 PM   #184
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Re: Positive

It's not about negativity, it's about being realistic. Of course this article further proved my point, and this is basically from the horse's mouth...

iF: I’m still confused why the movie didn’t open up bigger than it should have. Do you think people weren’t aware of the movie or that THE DARK KNIGHT and STEP BROTHERS chewed into your audience?

SPOTNITZ: I don't think awareness was necessarily the problem. I think the bigger problem was that we weren't counter-programming, like STEP BROTHERS and MAMMA MIA! were. If you were looking for a dark, scary movie experience, you were almost certainly going to THE DARK KNIGHT that weekend, unless you happened to be a big X-FILES fan.
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Old August 4 2008, 01:38 AM   #185
PK95
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Re: Positive

I also was hoping that this movie would be doing better than it is doing. This was the movie that I was most excited about this summer. I have not got to see the movie yet though. I am going this Wednesday. I have taken a day off from my job just to be able to get caught up on movies and I am still excited to see the movie. I joke with my wife that it could be Mulder and Scully reading the phone book and I would love it. For real though, I am glad to see to see the two back together.
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Old August 4 2008, 01:57 AM   #186
TGTheodore
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Re: X-Files Bombs

nx1701g wrote: View Post
Unfortunately, from the looks of things, this is already on its way to the bargain bin at Wal*Mart.
Oh ... so it'll be censored, then.

--Ted
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Old August 4 2008, 05:37 AM   #187
Hal9001
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Re: X-Files Bombs

Nerdius Maximus wrote: View Post
I saw it this afternoon and loved it. I predict that it will find its audience when it comes to dvd.
I tend to agree

hell the TV episodes sold and this is a full movie
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Old August 4 2008, 05:38 AM   #188
Hal9001
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Re: X-Files Bombs

TG Theodore wrote: View Post
nx1701g wrote: View Post
Unfortunately, from the looks of things, this is already on its way to the bargain bin at Wal*Mart.
Oh ... so it'll be censored, then.

--Ted
HA!

Good one !
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Old August 4 2008, 05:40 AM   #189
broberfett
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Re: X-Files Bombs

The last episode of the series sucked. People remember. We are seeing what will happen to a Sopranos movie in the bombing of the X-files.
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Old August 4 2008, 06:08 AM   #190
Hal9001
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Re: X-Files Bombs

broberfett wrote: View Post
The last episode of the series sucked. People remember. We are seeing what will happen to a Sopranos movie in the bombing of the X-files.
well I can't argue that the sopranos decided to go out on a low note and left a bad taste in my mouth (and many mouths) - if they ended it the week before that with Tony sweating on the bed at his mothers - that would have been grand

anyway - its been a long while and I can't even remember the finale well, also the return of M & S in the classic format was what worked best

I think lack of action, TDK, bad reviews, no Buzz (CC kept in to quiet) and lackluster marketing if that and well the BO has been weak

but Fox invested little and expects little back so lets see where things go from here
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Old August 4 2008, 06:22 AM   #191
Kaijufan
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Re: X-Files Bombs

I still haven't gotten around to seeing the X-Files yet, so I guess I'm still part of the problem. I have Wednesday off, hopefully I'll be able to see it then.
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Old August 4 2008, 11:48 AM   #192
Bishbot
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Re: X-Files Bombs

nx1701g wrote: View Post
Yeah, but it wasn't like they were very appealing commercials.
Actually I was quite intrigued by the trailers. I like The X-Files enough to want to see a decent film and I was really pleased that they didn't spoil the plot in the trailers.

Then I saw the film and the plot was weak beyond measure. The trailers didn't spoil the plot because there was no plot to spoil.

I admit that maybe I'm not a big enough fan to appreciate what they were trying to do to the full, but my knowledge of the X-Files universe is certainly considerably above the average "man in the street" and that was who the film was aimed at? Its no wonder its not working out.
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Old August 4 2008, 02:05 PM   #193
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Re: X-Files Bombs

billcosby wrote: View Post
mswood wrote: View Post
Unless its a big hit overseas or huge hit on the home market, the franchise is dead
Really? After what happened with Enterprise, it's my belief that studios are only interested in what Joe Six Pack in America does with his movie ticket purchases (or through Neilson ratings). Overseas and even DVDs don't seem to count worth a damn towards continuing production.
Of course it doesn't! And this has nothing to do with the studios, but with the NETWORKS. The NETWORK buys a production and puts it on the tely, and the network doesn't get a single scrap of overseas, DVDs, or merchandising. That money goes to the studio, and studio alone. The only money the network gets, is the money it can charge for the ads running during a show. This based entirely on the ratings. To a network, a tv show is nothing but viewer-incentive to watch the adds.

The only thing you could say, that maybe studios who produce a quality product, that will/does magnificent overseas, in DVDs, and brings in massive merchandising money, should offer a chunk of the pot to networks to keep it on the air, but ultimately the decision about whether or not a show gets canceled, is the networks', and the only that matters to them is ratings.

TedShatner10 wrote: View Post
billcosby wrote: View Post
mswood wrote: View Post
Unless its a big hit overseas or huge hit on the home market, the franchise is dead
Really? After what happened with Enterprise, it's my belief that studios are only interested in what Joe Six Pack in America does with his movie ticket purchases (or through Neilson ratings). Overseas and even DVDs don't seem to count worth a damn towards continuing production.
Overseas and DVD sales are not even factor? Why screen overseas or sell DVDs to begin with, if the studios don't care? I'm convinced American studios rely on worldwide box office and DVD sales to cover any domestic losses.
Studios: yes.

Networks: no.

See above.

Last edited by 3D Master; August 4 2008 at 02:12 PM.
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Old August 4 2008, 05:22 PM   #194
Ugly Sweater
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Re: X-Files Bombs

It's one thing to be supportive of a film, it's another to be delusional.

No, the marketing budget wasn't zero. No, this movie obviously hasn't shown it was able to hold its own in the marketplace and people spoke with their dollars. Films that don't make their budgets don't get third sequels.

Sad thing is TDK may even arrive around the same time as X-Files on DVD, crushing it there too. "More entertaining than seeing TDK for the 100th time". Sorry, but the numbers speak for themselves. People obviously don't mind.
I know I, for one, would rather see TDK for a 100th time than see IWtB for a THIRD time.

In all honesty I'll live happy as an X-Files fan never seeing this movie again. Only thing that'll get to *maybe* buy it is if Rifftrax picks it up.
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Old August 4 2008, 07:00 PM   #195
darkshadow0001
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Re: X-Files Bombs

Even so, I liked the film. It was great to see Scully and Mulder back together again, even though I was hoping more for a UFO type story or something else then what we got. Still, nonetheless, it was a decent film.
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