X-Files Bombs

[Bad Bishop]

mswood wrote:

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Will keep on occasion posting updates, especially when more overseas info comes out.

Don't bother. There's not going to be any silver lining.

[nx1701g]

Unfortunately, from the looks of things, this is already on its way to the bargain bin at Wal*Mart.

[Harvey]

Nah. Like Serenity, it'll bring the hardcore fans out to pick up more than one copy on DVD. And then a year later the inevitable special edition DVD will come...

[Vger6]

mswood wrote:

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On to the bad news.

Well X-Files weekday grosses were poor. And I had used Serenity (and a couple other films to gauge the X-Files film ending with around 25 million for its final US gross (about 55% will go to t eh studio to help offset its budget 30 million and its World Wide print and advertising cost probably at least, at least another 20 million).

And during the weekdays managed to gain over a million dollars over Serenity.

But it took a huge nose dive this weekend. I had forgotten that Serenity played with people were in school and thus would have smaller weekday numbers (and larger increase for the weekend). So that the full week total should be similar based on their nearly identical opening weekend.

Unfortunately this was not the case.

X-Files only made (based on studio estimates) 3.4 million this weekend (and it might fall even lower as even its estimates for Friday were originally to high, as were the estimates of last weekend). Compared to Serenity's 5.3. So while it gained a million during the week days it lost 2 during the weekend, and is now running a million less then Serenity's US figures. And that movie ended with a total US gross of 25 million. So I could see the X-Files going as low as 22 million and as high as 26.

Just depressingly bad.

Will keep on occasion posting updates, especially when more overseas info comes out. Because right now this is dead in the US market. And while many, many films make a profit over their US, Overseas and Home sales. Usually a studio want greenlight a sequel unless films make a profit that is worth wile as sequels almost always make less.

The good news is its not your money!

This will do enough to warrant a sequel since the prod budget was minimal and the marketing budget was zero -IMHO

I think this will do well on DVD too since it will get more exposure and people will find it more entertaining than seeing TDK for the 100th time

[Messianni]

Vger6 wrote:

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The good news is its not your money!

This will do enough to warrant a sequel since the prod budget was minimal and the marketing budget was zero -IMHO

I think this will do well on DVD too since it will get more exposure and people will find it more entertaining than seeing TDK for the 100th time

It's one thing to be supportive of a film, it's another to be delusional.

No, the marketing budget wasn't zero. No, this movie obviously hasn't shown it was able to hold its own in the marketplace and people spoke with their dollars. Films that don't make their budgets don't get third sequels.

Sad thing is TDK may even arrive around the same time as X-Files on DVD, crushing it there too. "More entertaining than seeing TDK for the 100th time". Sorry, but the numbers speak for themselves. People obviously don't mind.

[Vger6]

Messianni wrote:

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It's one thing to be supportive of a film, it's another to be delusional.

No, the marketing budget wasn't zero. No, this movie obviously hasn't shown it was able to hold its own in the marketplace and people spoke with their dollars. Films that don't make their budgets don't get third sequels.

Sad thing is TDK may even arrive around the same time as X-Files on DVD, crushing it there too. "More entertaining than seeing TDK for the 100th time". Sorry, but the numbers speak for themselves. People obviously don't mind.

Im not supoorting it, I'm saying it was a good film
NOONE knew this movie was coing out - noone - and there was no buzz
Well i'm speaking more of the none theater going people that watch different movies everyweekend not the same exact movie again and again
X-files will do fine

[Messianni]

Vger6 wrote:

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Im not supoorting it, I'm saying it was a good film
NOONE knew this movie was coing out - noone - and there was no buzz
Well i'm speaking more of the none theater going people that watch different movies everyweekend not the same exact movie again and again
X-files will do fine

The trailers were there, attached to multiple films. Commercials ran for weeks on various channels. It was even up for a few days filling up pages like MySpace. The marketing was there. But in order to have buzz in the first place, a significant amout of people have to care about it first. People didn't care, thus, no buzz.

[Vger6]

Messianni wrote:

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The trailers were there, attached to multiple films. Commercials ran for weeks on various channels. It was even up for a few days filling up pages like MySpace. The marketing was there. But in order to have buzz in the first place, a significant amout of people have to care about it first. People didn't care, thus, no buzz.

sorry but the general public had little if any knowledge of this film

[sidious618]

Let's not delude ourselves. There were a lot of commercials out (bad ones but they were out there) and I'm pretty sure most people knew the film was out.

[Harvey]

The X-Files has made an estimated $17,060,000 domestically in 10 days of release, according to Box Office Mojo. It had a production budget of $30,000,000. It has not made that back, and if it reaches that number, it will just barely do so domestically.

International figures are another matter, and all I've seen on them is purely speculation at this point. However, it is unlikely that they will significantly blow domestic figures out of the water. I expect, like the first X-files movie, the international grosses will be higher than the domestic figures (The X-Files made 55.7% of it's money in 1998 internationally). Charitably, let's say it grosses $50,000,000 internationally. That results in a total gross of $80,000,000. That's less than half the gross of the first feature, and, furthermore, barely enough for the film to break even.

You have to remember that these numbers are all grosses--not profits. Theatres will recieve a significant portion of these grosses. In addition, 20th Century Fox will have to include the costs of striking at least 3,185 prints (probably more if the film ever was playing on more than one screen, and definitely more counting international releases). As a student filmmaker, I can tell you that these costs are not cheap. Finally, the studio will have to eat the cost of advertising for the film. Although it is easy for us to call the advertising "ineffective" or "minimal," the fact of the matter is trailers for the film were in front of movies for over a month, David and Gillian did the talk show circuits, and advertisements on TV have been fairly significant. It surely hasn't been advertised in the quantity of a film like The Dark Knight, but it has been advertised on TV, print, and elsewhere.

The problem with the advertising has been tone more than anything (only in my opinion there). Chris Carter deliberatly kept the film's plot a secret, when the plot wasn't what was driving the film. This built up expectations that could not be fulfilled by The X-Files: I Want To Believe as delivered. I, personally, love the film. I've seen it twice in theatres. But not delivering after you've tried to build hype like this is a killer for word-of-mouth (not to mention the reviews, which, six years removed from the television series, further reflect the reviews of the first movie--that is to say, reviewers who "got" the series generally offer praise, and those who didn't generally panned the film.

A sequel, especially a theatrical sequel budgeted any higher than this film, is simply out of the question unless Chris Carter or somebody else related becomes "hot" (witness Hellboy's resurrection in the wake of Del Toro's success with Pan's Labyrinth). A sequel of the same budget is possible, but still out of reach at this point. The best hopes for further filmed X-Files seems to lie solely in the domain of television, and whether everyone (and it would require everyone--Chris Carter, David Duchovny, Gillian Anderson, and FOX being the principals here) involved will have any interest or business motivation to return to that domain after the series has beend dormant for six years and the film has had mediocre financial returns at best is entirely up in the air.

I, being a pessimist, expect this to be the end of the X-Files, at least as a filmed live-action venture.

[nx1701g]

sidious618 wrote:

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Let's not delude ourselves. There were a lot of commercials out (bad ones but they were out there) and I'm pretty sure most people knew the film was out.

Yeah, but it wasn't like they were very appealing commercials.

[sidious618]

nx1701g wrote:

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Yeah, but it wasn't like they were very appealing commercials.

Look at what I put in the paranthesis.

[Vger6]

Hirogen Alpha wrote:

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The X-Files has made an estimated $17,060,000 domestically in 10 days of release, according to Box Office Mojo. It had a production budget of $30,000,000. It has not made that back, and if it reaches that number, it will just barely do so domestically.

International figures are another matter, and all I've seen on them is purely speculation at this point. However, it is unlikely that they will significantly blow domestic figures out of the water. I expect, like the first X-files movie, the international grosses will be higher than the domestic figures (The X-Files made 55.7% of it's money in 1998 internationally). Charitably, let's say it grosses $50,000,000 internationally. That results in a total gross of $80,000,000. That's less than half the gross of the first feature, and, furthermore, barely enough for the film to break even.

You have to remember that these numbers are all grosses--not profits. Theatres will recieve a significant portion of these grosses. In addition, 20th Century Fox will have to include the costs of striking at least 3,185 prints (probably more if the film ever was playing on more than one screen, and definitely more counting international releases). As a student filmmaker, I can tell you that these costs are not cheap. Finally, the studio will have to eat the cost of advertising for the film. Although it is easy for us to call the advertising "ineffective" or "minimal," the fact of the matter is trailers for the film were in front of movies for over a month, David and Gillian did the talk show circuits, and advertisements on TV have been fairly significant. It surely hasn't been advertised in the quantity of a film like The Dark Knight, but it has been advertised on TV, print, and elsewhere.

The problem with the advertising has been tone more than anything (only in my opinion there). Chris Carter deliberatly kept the film's plot a secret, when the plot wasn't what was driving the film. This built up expectations that could not be fulfilled by The X-Files: I Want To Believe as delivered. I, personally, love the film. I've seen it twice in theatres. But not delivering after you've tried to build hype like this is a killer for word-of-mouth (not to mention the reviews, which, six years removed from the television series, further reflect the reviews of the first movie--that is to say, reviewers who "got" the series generally offer praise, and those who didn't generally panned the film.

A sequel, especially a theatrical sequel budgeted any higher than this film, is simply out of the question unless Chris Carter or somebody else related becomes "hot" (witness Hellboy's resurrection in the wake of Del Toro's success with Pan's Labyrinth). A sequel of the same budget is possible, but still out of reach at this point. The best hopes for further filmed X-Files seems to lie solely in the domain of television, and whether everyone (and it would require everyone--Chris Carter, David Duchovny, Gillian Anderson, and FOX being the principals here) involved will have any interest or business motivation to return to that domain after the series has beend dormant for six years and the film has had mediocre financial returns at best is entirely up in the air.

I, being a pessimist, expect this to be the end of the X-Files, at least as a filmed live-action venture.

The studios get anywhere from 40-80% of the Box office depends on the arrangement and week earned, but say 50%

that leaves 40 mm to cover budget, marketing (nil) and expenses

then add dvd sales and pay-per view and cable/tv rights and this is a money maker

unlike say speed racer

[Professor Zoom]

How much do you think a "nil" marketing campaign costs?

10 bucks?

[Messianni]

Vger6 wrote:

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The studios get anywhere from 40-80% of the Box office depends on the arrangement and week earned, but say 50%

that leaves 40 mm to cover budget, marketing (nil) and expenses

then add dvd sales and pay-per view and cable/tv rights and this is a money maker

unlike say speed racer

Speed Racer had a larger opening by $8 million and made $30 million, X-Files total budget, by its second week.

You have no clue what their marketing budget was. Just look above you. People knew the movie was coming out, commercials were everywhere. There was just. No. Interest. Simple.

DVD sales? It's going to be competing with the likes of Iron Man and The Dark Knight for sales if they call come out around the same time. And no, PPV and cable/TV rights are negligible. No one is going to want to pay top dollar for a movie that, frankly, failed. It'll show up on FX as a Sunday night movie then maybe somewhere else a few years later toiling in the middle of an afternoon slot.