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Old June 11 2014, 06:53 PM   #1291
Yanks
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Ancient Mariner wrote: View Post
Yanks wrote: View Post
I'm also waiting for a "balanced" answer to my comment about the last 20 years (no rise in temp).
Read the thread for the specifics, but the short answer is: Temperatures did not rise as quickly as expected, but they still rose. And the reasons for the reduced (though still positive) rise include lower solar output, missing data from the polar ice caps, and particulate matter in the atmosphere from volcanoes.
See, there you go. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

NDT did a whole segment on how the sun WASN'T contributing to climate change, same for volcanos etc.

...and the "change" over the last 20 years is no more than an accounting or rounding error.

See, ti CAN'T be that good ole' mother earth has adjusted to all the extra co2 us evil humans are throwing up in the air.
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Old June 11 2014, 06:56 PM   #1292
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Admiral2 wrote: View Post
Why is everybody still arguing with g over this? He's either a troll or stuck on stupid. Either way, I'd rather just bask in this series' awesomeness. regardless of any supposed agenda.
Bask away.

But the agenda was promoted by lie in the series. Just be aware.

Mister Fandango wrote: View Post
I don't get it either.

I mean, even if you do convince him to get his head out of his ass, what does it accomplish?
Who is "him"?
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Old June 11 2014, 07:12 PM   #1293
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Yanks wrote: View Post
Ancient Mariner wrote: View Post
Yanks wrote: View Post
I'm also waiting for a "balanced" answer to my comment about the last 20 years (no rise in temp).
Read the thread for the specifics, but the short answer is: Temperatures did not rise as quickly as expected, but they still rose. And the reasons for the reduced (though still positive) rise include lower solar output, missing data from the polar ice caps, and particulate matter in the atmosphere from volcanoes.
See, there you go. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

NDT did a whole segment on how the sun WASN'T contributing to climate change, same for volcanos etc.

...and the "change" over the last 20 years is no more than an accounting or rounding error.

See, ti CAN'T be that good ole' mother earth has adjusted to all the extra co2 us evil humans are throwing up in the air.
You're not making the distinction between short term (decade-length) variance and long term climate change. You're paying attention to the dog on the leash, not the path the man is walking.
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Old June 11 2014, 07:23 PM   #1294
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

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Old June 11 2014, 07:34 PM   #1295
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Yanks wrote: View Post
Admiral2 wrote: View Post
Why is everybody still arguing with g over this? He's either a troll or stuck on stupid. Either way, I'd rather just bask in this series' awesomeness. regardless of any supposed agenda.
Bask away.

But the agenda was promoted by lie in the series. Just be aware.

Mister Fandango wrote: View Post
I don't get it either.

I mean, even if you do convince him to get his head out of his ass, what does it accomplish?
Who is "him"?
If you can't even keep up with a simple conversation, especially when you quote the post that was immediately preceding the one you're asking the question about, why bother wasting the virtual breath trying to explain it to you?
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Old June 11 2014, 08:11 PM   #1296
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Yanks wrote: View Post
Looking for that "balanced" discussion from the Climate Change alarmists...
Since the deniers have no case it would be as foolish as looking looking for balance in a discussion with a flat earther.

Yanks wrote: View Post
I'm also waiting for a "balanced" answer to my comment about the last 20 years (no rise in temp).
Temps have gone up. whoever told you they haven't was lying or misinformed.

Yanks wrote: View Post
But the agenda was promoted by lie in the series. Just be aware.
There have been no lies in the series.
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Old June 11 2014, 08:32 PM   #1297
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

What series? We were talking about a series?
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Old June 11 2014, 08:42 PM   #1298
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Forbin wrote: View Post
What series? We were talking about a series?
It's only in the thread title
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Old June 11 2014, 08:43 PM   #1299
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Mister Fandango wrote: View Post
I don't get it either.

I mean, even if you do convince him to get his head out of his ass, what does it accomplish?
You can't win with him, I doubt he even believes a 1/10th of what he posts. If we had a thread about how the sky was a beautiful shade of blue, he'd post a wall of text of how we were all wrong and it was really green.
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Old June 11 2014, 09:12 PM   #1300
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

It's not "blue", it's "azure".
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Old June 11 2014, 11:01 PM   #1301
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

In other news, after a shipping snafu, I finally received my Blu-Ray copy of Cosmos from Amazon today. I fired it up on the teevee and it looks absolutely gorgeous. The extras are minimal: an "interactive Cosmic Calendar" which is basically a big screen version of what's already available on the app; and a "Making Of" documentary. That documentary, though - it was like a whole other episode of Cosmos - really amazing and uplifting (and insightful into the process of making the series, too). The segment I enjoyed the most was with Alan Silvestri and his insight into how he composed the series.

But the best moment was at the end when Ann Druyan said that we, as a species, can accomplish anything ... if we "pierce the denial" that is holding us back. Quite apropos of some of the comments in this thread.
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Old June 12 2014, 01:55 AM   #1302
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

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None of that disproves the notion that "only by using homogenized data series can the long-term climatic trends be accurately detected" or that "the homogenized SAT data series of the stations have to be more carefully assessed and adjusted before they are to be confidently used in analyses of climate change."

So the process is valid and only needs to be refined. Furthermore, your posts have yet to demonstrate any proof that this is the result of any agenda other than trying to get the most scientifically accurate representation of the data.
The process is not valid if it requires continuing and ongoing adjustments to the past, which we know is constant.

The reason the technique was probably accepted is that climatologists wanted to see rising temperatures, and it showed them just that, so it seemed to work. If it had shown declining temperatures (which it would if the sawtooths ran the other way, down slowly and up abruptly), they'd have abandoned it after the first few tries.

As Richard Feynmann said about cargo cult science, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself — and you are the easiest person to fool."

Then comes validation, and what a mathematician would throw at the technique are various generated series of random walks, stochastic time-series curves that can serve as a statistically good analog for recorded temperatures, with differing levels of correlation between different data sequences that are standing for temperature curves at related sampling sites. Then discontinuities can be introduced into those series and the output of the homogenization algorithm can be checked against the unbroken data series. The technique will pass all those test with flying colors, because the statistically clean series used for validation wouldn't have the inherent saw-tooth pattern that makes the technique go all wonky, since there will be as many upward as downward discontinuities, and the series will have as much upward as downward drift.

So the technique makes sense, it will pass all sorts of validation tests that someone would throw at it, and it will screw up on real data-world and indicate that temperatures ripple backwards in time.

In normal science, when a glaring flaw is found in an algorithm or procedure, it is abandoned or corrected. In climate science, anyone who points out such a flaw is branded as a denier, a heretic, and a servant of Satan and the Koch Brothers. That's a serious problem, one that even climate scientists are complaining about.
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Old June 12 2014, 03:44 AM   #1303
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Well, the show's over, and this is just annoying now.
Bye.
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Old June 12 2014, 05:23 AM   #1304
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

^ Tootles.

I have to spend the day at home while the windows in the apartment are replaced. I figure it's a good opportunity to start rewatching the series. The more I reflect on it, the more the animated segments have grown on me. It'll be interesting to see if that new appreciation holds up on a second watch.
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Old June 12 2014, 05:29 AM   #1305
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Re: Cosmos - With Neil deGrasse Tyson

Well, some good news at last. Two days ago Zeke Hausfather, a coauthor of a climate homogenization benchmarking paper that was published June 4 (and who is part of the new International Surface Temperature Initiative that's going to try to come up with realistic benchmarks for testing homogenization algorithms) was at another site I frequent that was discussing the sawtooth issue. He said:

We are working on putting together methods of testing and benchmarking automated homogenization approaches that will include sawtooth pattern inhomogenities.
In the aforementioned paper they say:

The central facet of the benchmarking process is the creation of global scale synthetic analogs to the real-world database where both the “true” series and inhomogeneities are known (a luxury the real world data do not afford us). Hence algorithmic strengths and weaknesses can be meaningfully quantified and conditional inferences made about the real-world climate system. Here we discuss the necessary framework for developing an international homogenisation benchmarking system on the global scale for monthly mean temperatures.

<and>...

Simple synthetic analog-station data with simple inhomogeneities applied may artificially award high performance to algorithms that cannot cope with real world data. A true test of algorithm skill requires global reconstruction of real world characteristics including space and time sampling of the observational network.
So, once their project gets rolling, they should in a year or two be able to rein in the crazy downward adjustments to historical temperatures - and make sure that the homogenization algorithms don't keep choking on sawtooth patterns.

ETA: Meanwhile, in the alarmist world, PhysOrg published an article titled "Climate change may prevent contact with alien civilisations"

Is there anything it can't do?
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