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Old May 30 2013, 07:45 PM   #1
stj
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the three arrows

Given Paul Krugman's popular stature and the way he's saying a return to Keynesianism will save capitalism, it seems interesting to discuss Abe's three arrows a bit.

First, the interesting tidbit:

To link in with 'Abenomics' and its three arrows of growth economic strategy, we decided to create something aimed at women. So with that in mind, we came up with the 'Branomics Bra'," Triumph spokeswoman Yoshiko Masuda told NTD TV.

"We've put in these pads that boost the bra's cups by 2 percent. We hope that as the Japanese economy grows, we can also help bust sizes to get bigger."

Abe's "three arrow" economic plan to boost Japan's revival combines monetary strategy aimed at 2 percent inflation in two years combined with pro-growth reforms.


Read more: http://www.upi.com/blog/2013/05/09/A...#ixzz2UniSTz5Y
An AEI blogger comments on the structural reform this way:

BTIG’s Dan Greenhaus has a great take on the third of Shinzo Abe’s three arrows: pro-growth, supple-side structural reforms. He points to Abe’s decision to participate in the Trans-Pacific Partnership as a positive sign. Abe also recognizes the need to increase female labor force participation. This, too: Becoming more entrepreneurial. Greenhaus (and see above chart):
Said charts reveal that starting a business in Japan takes about 25 days and 8 procedures (on average, I presume.) The link: http://www.aei-ideas.org/2013/05/the...-three-arrows/

Business Insider reports first "details" on the third arrow:
The latest tranche of Japan's growth strategy will aim to triple infrastructure exports and double farm exports by 2020, as well as boost private investment, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Friday.
The government will set a target for domestic private-sector investment of 70 trillion yen ($687 billion) annually, Abe said in a speech to business executives and academics, the level before the 2008 financial crisis and up about 10 percent from the current figure.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-fires-third-arrow-of-abenomics-2013-5#ixzz2UnkaDlcl
Nope, there are no further details about how the government plans to increase private investment as yet. Further below.

Opalesque quotes from its roundtable discussion as follows:
"For the first time probably since Koizumi, we have a Prime Minister in Shinzo Abe whose popularity ratings have actually gone up after election rather than gone down. So the Japanese populace is supportive of the changes so far. Secondly, the governing LDP are most likely going to win the Upper house elections being held in July - that will give them majorities in both Houses of Parliament allowing them to push through potentially painful fiscal reforms needed to reform the economy," Kennedy said.
Here's the link: http://www.opalesque.com/646673/are_...ucceed667.html

As usual, the best popular English-language source, if you make allowances as much as possible for bias, is The Economist. http://www.economist.com/news/briefi...whose-previous

My guess is that the new "private" investment is projected to be for government contracts for a new Japanese Imperial Army and Navy, since Abe is a virulent right winger. (Yes, he's the loon who justified drafting Korean women as army "comfort women.")

Abe's second arrow, fiscal stimulus, means an increase in government debt. The Economist "warns" that means the bond market would be destabilized. That means of course that the market will press for fiscal austerity.

Incidental, the reference to "animal spirits" comes straight from Keynes. Keynesianism in the end holds a psychological interpretation of economic crises.

The first arrow, a massive increase in money supply and quantitative easing for banks, is relatively quickly accomplished. Yet it has been demonstrated over and over that monetary policy is never a cure for economic depression.

The second arrow, fiscal stimulus by private investment, is probably imaginary.

The third arrow, structural reform, is probably the real intent of the program, and it is an essential part of an austerity program.

I venture to predict that Keynesianism as practiced in Japan, contra Krugman, will not save capitalism. And that the three arrows are essentially aimed at workers everywhere, not just in Japan.

Abe was PM before and nothing like this. The difference now I think is the "pivot to Asia." Japan under Abe has signed on to the latest anticommunist crusade, as witnessed by the row over those pointless islands. Leave them to Oliver Queen I say.
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Old May 30 2013, 07:53 PM   #2
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Re: the three arrows

Dammit man, I'm a doctor, not an economist.
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Old May 30 2013, 08:01 PM   #3
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Re: the three arrows

stj, maybe you should word all that in simple english, as all i read was a massive statement with some crazy-ass predictions about the rebirth of imperial japan.
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Old May 30 2013, 11:14 PM   #4
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Re: the three arrows

Not an economist either, but my wife teaches it. She'd probably rip them a new one for thinking Keynesian economics would work.
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Old May 30 2013, 11:17 PM   #5
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Re: the three arrows

Gimme a T!
Gimme an L!
Gimme a D!
Gimme an R!

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Old May 30 2013, 11:49 PM   #6
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Re: the three arrows

B.J. wrote: View Post
Not an economist either, but my wife teaches it. She'd probably rip them a new one for thinking Keynesian economics would work.
Keynesian economics does work. Chicago and Austrian schools of economics are the ones that don't.
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Old May 31 2013, 04:05 AM   #7
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Re: the three arrows

^Unless you show me some proof that you know more than my wife on this (who studies and teaches it), I'll take her word, thanks.
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Old May 31 2013, 12:08 PM   #8
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Re: the three arrows

junxon wrote: View Post
stj, maybe you should word all that in simple english, as all i read was a massive statement with some crazy-ass predictions about the rebirth of imperial japan.
What I wrote was extremely compressed. Also, the word in reference to Abe's imperial pretensions was "guess," not predict. Abe's grandfather was tried for war crimes, as The Economist article noted, so whether or not you disagree, raising the issue is not "crazy-ass."

"Branomics" isn't simple English?
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Old May 31 2013, 12:46 PM   #9
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Re: the three arrows

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Old May 31 2013, 01:57 PM   #10
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Re: the three arrows

stj wrote: View Post
junxon wrote: View Post
stj, maybe you should word all that in simple english, as all i read was a massive statement with some crazy-ass predictions about the rebirth of imperial japan.
What I wrote was extremely compressed. Also, the word in reference to Abe's imperial pretensions was "guess," not predict. Abe's grandfather was tried for war crimes, as The Economist article noted, so whether or not you disagree, raising the issue is not "crazy-ass."

"Branomics" isn't simple English?
fuck. i'd hate to see you write something uncompressed.

my grandfather was a miner, but that doesn't mean i want to dig holes in the ground

and no, 'branomics' is a hideous buzzword that no sane person can guess the meaning of. is it the economics of lingerie sales?
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Old May 31 2013, 02:00 PM   #11
Gov Kodos
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Re: the three arrows

junxon wrote: View Post
stj wrote: View Post
junxon wrote: View Post
stj, maybe you should word all that in simple english, as all i read was a massive statement with some crazy-ass predictions about the rebirth of imperial japan.
What I wrote was extremely compressed. Also, the word in reference to Abe's imperial pretensions was "guess," not predict. Abe's grandfather was tried for war crimes, as The Economist article noted, so whether or not you disagree, raising the issue is not "crazy-ass."

"Branomics" isn't simple English?
fuck. i'd hate to see you write something uncompressed.

my grandfather was a miner, but that doesn't mean i want to dig holes in the ground

and no, 'branomics' is a hideous buzzword that no sane person can guess the meaning of.
I'd guess Branomics involves Euell Gibbons.
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Old May 31 2013, 02:05 PM   #12
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Re: the three arrows

branomics
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Old May 31 2013, 11:59 PM   #13
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Re: the three arrows

B.J. wrote: View Post
^Unless you show me some proof that you know more than my wife on this (who studies and teaches it), I'll take her word, thanks.
Why don't you back up your claim that Keynesian doesn't work first? You seem rather light on details.
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Old June 1 2013, 06:12 AM   #14
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Re: the three arrows

stj wrote: View Post

"Branomics" isn't simple English?
Is it?
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Old June 1 2013, 06:20 AM   #15
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Re: the three arrows

Unless you completely dumb it down, Economics is not really a subject for the everyman.
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