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Go Back   The Trek BBS > Star Trek Movies > Star Trek Movies XI+

Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old May 22 2013, 02:55 PM   #916
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Today (Wednesday) will be Star Treks last day at number 1

Thursday we will be No.2
Friday will see us go to No.3 or maybe No.4

6.9m Tues very nice Maybe actual will go up to 7!
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Old May 22 2013, 03:47 PM   #917
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Admiral Buzzkill wrote: View Post
IOW, Into Darkness continues to run somewhat ahead of Star Trek 2009 at the box office and people are wandering around with long faces.
You are right. I think the premieres, red carpets, good reception of European, Asian, here in Brazil, Russia, projections of the critics, all of these made ​​me believe that STID would reach 100 M in USA easy. But we must be realistic. Star Trek has its limitations scifi genre and, after all, is not that bad. Maybe, 450 - 500 M Worldwide grossing would be very encouraging.
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Old May 22 2013, 03:53 PM   #918
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I am not Spock wrote: View Post
A lot of the episodes were written by TOS veterans. I don't know when Roddenberry decided to turn his back on it.
The "What is canon?" memo of 1989 coincided with several pertinent events. Filmation was being sold off. The output of their TV series backlog was in a state of ownership flux; it was not definite that TAS rights would revert to Paramount/Viacom since it was originally a joint production of Roddenberry's Norway Corp., NBC Children's TV and Filmation. TAS had not been on air for some time so it was not accessible to TNG's writers or viewers. David Gerrold and DC Fontana were suing Roddenberry over co-creatorship of TNG; it was politically sensible for the lawyers to dis-count their contribution to other material. Larry Niven's "Known Space" universe (and kzinti) was about to be licensed as a RPG.

When Richard Arnold defined "canon" from 1989 on, he would specify "live action". Until then, publications such as Lincoln Enterprises' TAS newsletters showed that GR was formerly a big supporter of TAS.
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Old May 22 2013, 04:33 PM   #919
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I am not Spock wrote: View Post
Star Wars, wisely, kept new product in the public eye during the ten year gap between Revenge of the Sith, and Episode VII. In the form of the Clone Wars cartoon.

Star Trek needs to do the same. Another intelligently written TAS (the animation may not have been great in the Filmation series, but the stories were actually quite good. I proudly have TAS in my Trek DVD collection alongside the other tv series and movies) to get the kids interested in the franchise. Hire the new movie cast to do the voices.
Now we're talking turkey.
Can someone transmute this post into a stick that we can beat the bean counters over the head at CBS/Paramount with?
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Old May 22 2013, 05:57 PM   #920
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

An exchange between Box Office Guru and a follower on Twitter:

Follower: better movie than the numbers suggest. If it follows The Hobbits trajectory could it still finish about $250m? No xmas tho.
BOG: no chance. will be lucky to get to 200 dom.
Folower: pretty disastrous right? What would a below 200 finish do to the franchise?
BOG: I wouldn't say disaster. franchise should still continue even if it finishes in 180-200 range. may try to keep costs lower.
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Old May 22 2013, 05:59 PM   #921
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Let's hope the Guru is flat-out wrong.
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Old May 22 2013, 06:05 PM   #922
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I think it has a decent shot at 200-210. More than that is tough. I'd love to see it defy the odds and make more, though.
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Old May 22 2013, 06:36 PM   #923
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Borgminister wrote: View Post
Let's hope the Guru is flat-out wrong.
The "Guru" was flat-out wrong about the movie's opening weekend, why should he improve?

The kind of "prognostication" he's been doing here is sleight-of-hand: repeat what the conventional wisdom and the trend shows, and most of the time you'll be right. When the trend turns the other direction, follow that trend without blinking as well.

Stock market analysts do a lot of this; if on any given day you predict that things will be a lot like yesterday, you'll sound smart most days.
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Old May 22 2013, 06:45 PM   #924
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

He is applying the usual trends in extrapolating out, yes. But then some trends reoccur with great consistency, so one can lay out the most probable scenarios. A summer sequel that opens to less than or about the same as the preceding film and ends up with a similar gross is pretty much a unicorn. I'd love for STiD to turn out to be that unicorn, but the path beyond Memorial Day weekend makes that unlikely.

Edit to add: the Tuesday actual is $6,761,446 for a total of $98,446,262.
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Old May 22 2013, 07:39 PM   #925
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

The monday and tues grosses at $8 mill and $7 million are very good!! Ive been out of action a few days so I havent seen it again yet.

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Old May 22 2013, 07:39 PM   #926
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

billcosby wrote: View Post
I am not Spock wrote: View Post
Star Wars, wisely, kept new product in the public eye during the ten year gap between Revenge of the Sith, and Episode VII. In the form of the Clone Wars cartoon.

Star Trek needs to do the same. Another intelligently written TAS (the animation may not have been great in the Filmation series, but the stories were actually quite good. I proudly have TAS in my Trek DVD collection alongside the other tv series and movies) to get the kids interested in the franchise. Hire the new movie cast to do the voices.
Now we're talking turkey.
Can someone transmute this post into a stick that we can beat the bean counters over the head at CBS with?
The day CBS doesn't have the #1 primetime show, #1 prime time line up, #1 comedy, and #1 drama will be the day CBS cares about developing Star Trek for Television.
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Old May 22 2013, 07:48 PM   #927
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

The competition this weekend is insane. It's unusual to have two big movies with so much demographic overlap being released on the same weekend. Usually one of the studios would have blinked and moved to a different release date.
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Old May 22 2013, 08:21 PM   #928
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
The competition this weekend is insane. It's unusual to have two big movies with so much demographic overlap being released on the same weekend. Usually one of the studios would have blinked and moved to a different release date.

Yes, but the demographics arent really the same as ST demos, so it will have it's niche. As I said earlier if STID does $40 million or so, and probably $43-47 for the 4 days, it will be doing just fine, and probably still on track for $250 million.
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Old May 22 2013, 08:23 PM   #929
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Star Trek Into Darkness did $6.14m on OW in Russia.

John Carter of Mars did $16.5m OW
Battleship did $11.1m
Fast and Furious 6 forecast to do $17.6m
Prometheus $10m
Oblivion $9.3m
Iron Man 3 $23.1m

I guess the Russians don't like Star Trek very much
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Old May 22 2013, 08:29 PM   #930
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

RAMA wrote: View Post
Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
The competition this weekend is insane. It's unusual to have two big movies with so much demographic overlap being released on the same weekend. Usually one of the studios would have blinked and moved to a different release date.

Yes, but the demographics arent really the same as ST demos, so it will have it's niche. As I said earlier if STID does $40 million or so, and probably $43-47 for the 4 days, it will be doing just fine, and probably still on track for $250 million.
^^^^^
This..

The demographic models will probably be very similar to last weekend with the movie skewing older (under 25 are split by Hangover and FF6) and predominantly male (again younger males are more likely to go to Hangover and FF6). Actually I think the film holds up quite well.

Frankly think Guru is smoking crack, and there are many times his projections are waaaaaaayyyyy off. Again I suspect Trek brings in close to $40 million over the 3 day (probably $37) and ultimately $46 for the four day weekend putting it's total at $156 going into its second week of release. Trek is then in a very good place as it will be pretty much the only genre film in release until June 14th(not expecting much from After Earth).

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