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Go Back   The Trek BBS > Star Trek Movies > Star Trek Movies XI+

Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old May 19 2013, 03:30 PM   #496
Dream
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Ovation wrote: View Post
Whatever happens, Paramount will be fine financially. They did make Iron Man 3 as well.
IM3 was made by Disney/Marvel.

But Paramount really doesn't have any popular film franchises these days except for Trek.

The only other blockbuster movie they have out this year is World War Z! That looks like a complete disaster.
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Old May 19 2013, 03:41 PM   #497
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

So now we are looking at:

13.5 + 22 + 27.5 = $63m Wed*/Thu/Fri/Sat

So:

Star Trek 09 Sunday was very good, people think it was because of Mothers Day. It is not mothers day this time...

If we do add ST09 Sunday we get:

$63+21 = $84m

So $84m is the max I think. If it makes it to $84m then considering the grim Thursday and Friday numbers it will be a mini recovery though still short of the $100m they wanted. I am hoping for $80+
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Old May 19 2013, 03:45 PM   #498
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Dream wrote: View Post
But Paramount really doesn't have any popular film franchises these days except for Trek.
They don't have an abundance of strong franchises, but they do have a few. Transformers, Madagascar, and Mission Impossible are currently their biggest ongoing franchises (the first two being co-owned with DreamWorks). Trek is in the next tier after them.
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Old May 19 2013, 03:55 PM   #499
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Dream wrote: View Post
Ovation wrote: View Post
Whatever happens, Paramount will be fine financially. They did make Iron Man 3 as well.
IM3 was made by Disney/Marvel.

But Paramount really doesn't have any popular film franchises these days except for Trek.

The only other blockbuster movie they have out this year is World War Z! That looks like a complete disaster.
My mistake. Was going from memory of logos on earlier Iron Man movies. Haven't seen the latest one.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:09 PM   #500
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
From Box Office Guru on Twitter:

#StarTrek up about 25% SAT. Good jump from a non-opening day FRI. WED-FRI may end up w/$82-85M. Official studio est to come.
That's some very good news and bodes well for Into Darkness to have a slightly longer shelf life than your average tentpole franchise summer blockbuster. Weekday numbers this week should give us a good indication of what's going to happen over the next few weeks and how Into Darkness will fare versus some upcoming releases.

I know people were in full fledged panic over these numbers but there are a couple of factors to bear in mind and some realities people need to understand:

1) Star Trek 2009 was the beneficiary of a very friendly release schedule. The film faced very little, if any, competition in May 2009. The two biggest holdovers which Trek faced its opening weekend were "Obsessed" starring Beyonce, and "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" which underperformed at the box office. The following week saw the much anticipated release of "Angels & Demons," the sequel to the "Da Vinci Code." However A&D was blasted in reviews and the film managed to make a little over half of the originals release. On the 22nd of May Trek faced off against "Night at the Museum 2" and "Terminator Salvation" and performed extremely well making $22 million over the weekend, down a mere 46% from the week before. Star Trek 2009 pretty much coasted through the month with little resistance until the beginning of June with the release of the original Hangover.

Contrast that with Into Darkness which has had to contend with two major holdovers in "Iron Man 3" and "The Great Gatsby," both films which eat into key demographics. Star Trek 2009 performed very well with women and had a larger female audience percentage than previous Trek films, and that percentage is hurt by the overperformance of Gatsby, which a number of analyst projected would fail at the box office... it didn't. Additionally, Iron Man 3 has had a very strong run and its numbers are holding up extremely well, so again another demographic is being eaten away. Add to that next weekend Into Darkness faces "Fast and Furious 6" and "Hangover III," both extremely popular film franchises.

Ultimately what will keep Star Trek going is word of mouth and fortunately WOM has been great with the film scoring a Cinemascore grade of "A" with audiences. So these next few days and next weekend will be very telling. Frankly, I think the film will do just fine and probably end up in the same ballpark as Trek 2009. However, where the film is really performing well is overseas and I suspect if Into Darkness' domestic numbers come up short of Trek 2009's, the international numbers will more than make up for that slack.

2) I honestly think the max a Star Trek film can make is in the neighborhood of $250-270 million domestically. Star Trek is a very popular franchise, but it simply doesn't have as big a movie fanbase as Harry Potter, Star Wars, Transformers, or the Dark Knight, and I think to expect it to perform like those franchises is very shortsighted on Paramount's part.

So Paramount needs to decide how they intend to proceed. Do they continue to make films with budgets around $150-190 million, but accept the fact the film will gross a total $400 million plus worldwide, or do they maybe scale back a bit? Still make big Star Trek films, but try to budget around $125-135 million and hope for similar numbers. There's simply no way to go back to the days of the Next Generation films trying to make Trek films with $60-80 million budgets.

Yancy
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Old May 19 2013, 04:15 PM   #501
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I think the domestic gross will be around $210-220 million. The worldwide gross should be in the low to mid-400s. A budget level of around $150 million is fine for a franchise that can deliver that level of box office. A $180-190 million budget places a heavier burden on a film.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:17 PM   #502
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

The Transformed Man wrote: View Post
Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
From Box Office Guru on Twitter:

#StarTrek up about 25% SAT. Good jump from a non-opening day FRI. WED-FRI may end up w/$82-85M. Official studio est to come.
That's some very good news and bodes well for Into Darkness to have a slightly longer shelf life than your average tentpole franchise summer blockbuster. Weekday numbers this week should give us a good indication of what's going to happen over the next few weeks and how Into Darkness will fare versus some upcoming releases.

I know people were in full fledged panic over these numbers but there are a couple of factors to bear in mind and some realities people need to understand:

1) Star Trek 2009 was the beneficiary of a very friendly release schedule. The film faced very little, if any, competition in May 2009. The two biggest holdovers which Trek faced its opening weekend were "Obsessed" starring Beyonce, and "X-Men Origins: Wolverine" which underperformed at the box office. The following week saw the much anticipated release of "Angels & Demons," the sequel to the "Da Vinci Code." However A&D was blasted in reviews and the film managed to make a little over half of the originals release. On the 22nd of May Trek faced off against "Night at the Museum 2" and "Terminator Salvation" and performed extremely well making $22 million over the weekend, down a mere 46% from the week before. Star Trek 2009 pretty much coasted through the month with little resistance until the beginning of June with the release of the original Hangover.

Contrast that with Into Darkness which has had to contend with two major holdovers in "Iron Man 3" and "The Great Gatsby," both films which eat into key demographics. Star Trek 2009 performed very well with women and had a larger female audience percentage than previous Trek films, and that percentage is hurt by the overperformance of Gatsby, which a number of analyst projected would fail at the box office... it didn't. Additionally, Iron Man 3 has had a very strong run and its numbers are holding up extremely well, so again another demographic is being eaten away. Add to that next weekend Into Darkness faces "Fast and Furious 6" and "Hangover III," both extremely popular film franchises.

Ultimately what will keep Star Trek going is word of mouth and fortunately WOM has been great with the film scoring a Cinemascore grade of "A" with audiences. So these next few days and next weekend will be very telling. Frankly, I think the film will do just fine and probably end up in the same ballpark as Trek 2009. However, where the film is really performing well is overseas and I suspect if Into Darkness' domestic numbers come up short of Trek 2009's, the international numbers will more than make up for that slack.

2) I honestly think the max a Star Trek film can make is in the neighborhood of $250-270 million domestically. Star Trek is a very popular franchise, but it simply doesn't have as big a movie fanbase as Harry Potter, Star Wars, Transformers, or the Dark Knight, and I think to expect it to perform like those franchises is very shortsighted on Paramount's part.

So Paramount needs to decide how they intend to proceed. Do they continue to make films with budgets around $150-190 million, but accept the fact the film will gross a total $400 million plus worldwide, or do they maybe scale back a bit? Still make big Star Trek films, but try to budget around $125-135 million and hope for similar numbers. There's simply no way to go back to the days of the Next Generation films trying to make Trek films with $60-80 million budgets.

Yancy
This is one the best posts I've read regarding the subject. I agree with you 100%.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:36 PM   #503
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
I think the domestic gross will be around $210-220 million. The worldwide gross should be in the low to mid-400s. A budget level of around $150 million is fine for a franchise that can deliver that level of box office. A $180-190 million budget places a heavier burden on a film.
Agree 100%. I do think there's a chance for $230-240 million, but that depends on how it holds up next week.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:47 PM   #504
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

As long as they don't have to completely rebuild sets and whatnot, that helps.

Part of Trek's problem, imho, was the long lag time between films. Four years was way too long. This film should have been out last year.

I know everyone is aiming for the 50th Anniversary, but perhaps Paramount should be counterintuitive and think what it can do to both cut costs and increase production schedule.

I hope they put the sets in storage. One of the advantages of the old Stage 9 at Paramount was they always had a set they could go to.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:48 PM   #505
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

From Deadline Hollywood:

1. Star Trek Into Darkness (Skydance/Paramount) Week 1 [3,868 Theaters]
Wednesday $2.0M, Thursday $11.5M, Friday $22.0M, Saturday $27.2M, Est Sunday $21.2M
Weekend $70.4M, Domestic Cume $83.9M, International Cume $75.0M, Worldwide Total $158.9M
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Old May 19 2013, 04:54 PM   #506
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Excellent recovery if it holds, remember at this point it is just an estimate and the actual can go either up or down. (up! up! up! please )
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Old May 19 2013, 04:55 PM   #507
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

The actual should be within $1-2 million of the estimate.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:55 PM   #508
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

The best we can hope for now, and certainly not dreadful. I hope it pans out.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:57 PM   #509
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Box office guru: https://twitter.com/giteshpandya/sta...46437060571138

#StarTrek makes $13.5M from 5day @IMAX dom opening for solid $40k avg. $20M global w/ big intl mkts still to open.
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Old May 19 2013, 04:59 PM   #510
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

ERC Twitter: https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice
Overseas, STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS blasted up $40M this weekend. Int'l total is now $80.5M.
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