MLB Offseason 2012

[Tom Hendricks]

Timby wrote:

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In any event, I want to know who submitted a vote for Aaron fuckin' Sele.

When I read this earlier today, I said to myself that Timby was gonna post something about it on here. Yup, I was right, even close to what I thought you were gonna say.

[Alidar Jarok]

As usual, the esteemed Nate Silver says it best (link). Basically, it talks about how Clemens and Bonds should make it even if you ignore the steroids years, while McGwire and Palmeiro would not:

Some voters have sought to apply a standard in which players are given full credit for statistics they compiled during seasons in which they were not suspected of steroid use, while discarding or discounting those in which they were. But Bonds and Clemens would probably have qualified for the Hall of Fame even by this rule. News accounts suggest that Bonds began using steroids after the 1998 season. By that time, he had already won three M.V.P. awards and eight Gold Gloves and had hit 411 home runs and stolen 445 bases. On the basis of Wins Above Replacement, he would have ranked as roughly the 30th best player in baseball history had he retired then. The same sort of reasoning does not work for McGwire, whose signature seasons were associated with steroid use, or for Palmeiro, who was found to have used banned substances late in his career and whose Hall of Fame case rests largely upon his longevity.

In addition, he talks about players who were punished for suspicion of steroids:

The comparison between Bagwell and Biggio may be especially instructive. The suspicion that Bagwell used steroids seems to be based on a sort of stereotyping. Bagwell hit for significantly more power than expected based on his minor-league statistics, and grew heavier and bulkier physically. Slugging first basemen who played in the 1990s are automatically suspected of steroid use by a certain contingent of voters, while speedy middle infielders like Biggio are not.

If one were actually to look at the list of players who have been suspended for performance-enhancing drugs, it might call some of these assumptions into question. Among these players are the utility infielder Neifi Perez, who hit 64 home runs in a 12-year career, the slap-hitting outfielder Jorge Piedra, and a substantial number of pitchers. The incidence of performance-enhancing drug use seems to be fairly randomly distributed between stars and benchwarmers, players at different positions and those with different skills.

[Dale Sams]

Biggio is a HOFer based on position, you don't compare him to Mantle, Ruth...or Schilling.

[Timby]

Yeah, the argument of "steroids = magic dinger juice" has never held water with me. Melky Cabrera tested positive just this past season, and all he can do is slap-hit a shit-ton of singles. The "steroid era" thing is just an excuse for the BBWAA to get self-righteous and indignant against the sabermetric crowd, whom they still largely believe to live in their Mom's basement and never watch actual baseball.

Clemens and Bonds (well, mostly for the latter) were cleared in courts of law, also.

[Aragorn]

The Hall of Fame voting is just a way for the BBWAA to make it about themselves and their agendas. Why don't people vote for obvious Hall of Famers like Rickey Henderson? Is Tom Seaver the greatest baseball player of all time since he has the biggest voter percentage ever? What did Jim Rice suddenly do in year fifteen of eligibility that he didn't do the previous fourteen years?

[Pegaritaville]

Timby wrote:

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Morris is an absolutely terrible Hall of Fame candidate. JAWS has him as the 167th best starting pitching candidate for the Hall. Let's say that method is massively unkind to Morris and he's actually in the 60s; only one person from 60-69 is in, and all but Eddie Cicotte are eligible. He'd instantly become one of the worst pitchers in the Hall. I'd be hard-pressed to even call him a borderline candidate; he belongs in the Hall of Good.

The following pitchers were better than Jack Morris, statistically speaking, in roughly the same era and didn't have a prayer at getting into the Hall: Dave Stieb, David Cone, Kevin Brown, Orel Hershiser, Brett Saberhagen, David Wells, Kevin Appier. I can't think of a single statistical argument for Morris in the Hall.

Morris may not have the best stats, but he was a dominant pitcher in his era and his 175 complete games certainly stands out (and may explain his rather high career 3.92 ERA). He was also the top pitcher on three teams that went on to win the World Series (Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto). As a Twins fan I may be biased, but if you look at more than just stats, I think Morris belongs.

[R. Star]

Well I'm from Texas, so even if I'm not an Astros fan I was exposed to Biggio quite often. Sure he wasn't going to win any MVPs, but he was solidly good and he was solidly good hiw whole career. I'd take that over the guy who wins a couple MVPs in his 20's then falls off the radar in his 30's.

His longevity definitely should be a factor. Another factor is that he's a second baseman. If Ryne Sandberg(whose team I am a fan of) can get in based on his numbers as a second baseman, why the heck can't Biggio whose numbers are better?

With Sosa getting the same treatment as McGwire and Palmeiro, and Bonds and Clemens getting only a third of the vote, if anything about the hall has changed, I'd say it's the 500 home runs get you elected automatically. Sosa's numbers really surprised me given he did get along with the media and didn't seem as tainted by the steroid brush as Clemens and Bonds.

Next year will be interesting. Maddux and Glavine, have to command enough votes to get in on the first ballot... I can't believe anyone would think either of these lanky fellows with their 80's fastballs were juicing. Kent, Mussina and Thomas are no slouches either and would all get a number of votes. So if anything on paper it would seem that the freshmen of this year's ballot would have a harder time getting in. Though that might be offset a bit by the writers who just won't vote for Babe Ruth on the first ballot.

Should be interesting to say the least in the next few years.

[Timby]

Aragorn wrote:

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What did Jim Rice suddenly do in year fifteen of eligibility that he didn't do the previous fourteen years?

He hung around on the ballot a lot longer than anyone expected to, and the Red Sox started a massive PR campaign to get him elected, primarily through Dan Shaughnessy, since they have their arm so far up his ass they can move a finger and make him sing "Yankee Doodle Dandy" on command. That's another guy who really doesn't belong -- "most feared hitter," my ass. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 43 more times in a single season than Jim Rice was in his whole career. J-Rice is 191st in career intentional walks, tied with legends of the game like Geoff Jenkins and Clay Dalrymple, and they didn't even start counting them until the mid-1950s, so there are plenty of more guys that would be ahead of Rice if their numbers weren't lost to time. The most feared hitter of Rice's era was George Brett or Mike Schmidt, not Rice.

But, again, ~narrative~.

Pegaritaville wrote:

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Morris may not have the best stats, but he was a dominant pitcher in his era and his 175 complete games certainly stands out (and may explain his rather high career 3.92 ERA). He was also the top pitcher on three teams that went on to win the World Series (Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto).

Nobody can seriously say that Jack Morris was the best pitcher in baseball for any substantial length of time, or even any year, because he wasn't. Even though Morris is the guy usually used as a counterweight to "compiler" Bert Blyleven, he's actually the biggest compiler of them all. His best ERA+ in a season was 127; despite his wins and Cy votes, he never really had a great season. He had a decent-length career with good run support and compiled a bunch of wins without ever being really good.

but if you look at more than just stats, I think Morris belongs.

I ... I don't even know how to parse this when we're talking about whether a player belongs in the Hall of Fame, which is a distinction based entirely upon statistics. I mean, I've seen the "best postseason pitcher ever" argument made (and it's already wrong on its face, because that's either Schilling or Mariano Rivera), but it has no standing when you look at the numbers; Morris pitched about as well in the postseason as he did in the regular season, and his one great shining moment that everyone remembers had more to do with Lonnie Smith's baserunning than Morris's pitching.

Jamie Moyer has more wins than Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Ford and Morris, and has remarkably similar rate statistics to Morris in more innings. Every argument not involving the phrase "Game 7" that you can make in support of Jack Morris can be made in favor of Jamie Moyer, but better. Does anyone think Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Famer?

With Sosa getting the same treatment as McGwire and Palmeiro, and Bonds and Clemens getting only a third of the vote, if anything about the hall has changed, I'd say it's the 500 home runs get you elected automatically. Sosa's numbers really surprised me given he did get along with the media and didn't seem as tainted by the steroid brush as Clemens and Bonds.

Sosa was in the leaked 2003 report of players who pissed hot and there was the corked bat incident, plus writers have never been too kind to him after the way he left Chicago. Statistically, he'd be a borderline candidate outside of the home runs, too -- that .273 average and oh my God the strikeouts work against him.

[R. Star]

Morris? Maybe the Veterans committee will eventually let him in, by all accounts they seem to be more easy going on who is and isn't qualified than the writers. I don't see him pulling off a year 15 upset the way Rice did. Especially when you got Maddux and Glavine was write-ins already most likely. Morris always seemed good, but not great to me. Post seasons aren't supposed to count, and I'm not sure what "more" than the stats one should look at.

[Dale Sams]

Pegaritaville wrote:

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Morris may not have the best stats, but he was a dominant pitcher in his era and his 175 complete games certainly stands out (and may explain his rather high career 3.92 ERA). He was also the top pitcher on three teams that went on to win the World Series (Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto). As a Twins fan I may be biased, but if you look at more than just stats, I think Morris belongs.

Dan Petry was arguably better than Morris on the Detroit team. Morris was NOT the best pitcher on that Twins team, regular season, and he had half the WAR Guzman did on the Toronto team.

[Scout101]

Just push back on the urge to be so inclusive with the Hall of Fame. Supposed to be the best of the best, not the Hall of Very Good, nice players. Being decent for a long time is great, but is it Hall of Fame worthy? I'd come down on the side of NO.

Doen't mean I think they suck, and that they weren't great players, good for their teams,etc. Just not the best of all time.

[Timby]

Scout101 wrote:

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Just push back on the urge to be so inclusive with the Hall of Fame. Supposed to be the best of the best, not the Hall of Very Good, nice players. Being decent for a long time is great, but is it Hall of Fame worthy? I'd come down on the side of NO.

Doen't mean I think they suck, and that they weren't great players, good for their teams,etc. Just not the best of all time.

Right. If we put every hitter who was better than Tommy McCarthy or Jim Rice, every pitcher who was better than Jesse Haines or Waite Hoyt, and every executive who was better than Bowie Kuhn in the Hall of Fame, there would be a thousand people in there. When you reach that point, it becomes really hard to parse the difference between guys as you start lowering the line, because there are more players at each level as the quality gets closer to average. Then you're going to make even more mistakes and eventually Denny Neagle is in the Hall and my head explodes.

[J.T.B.]

Timby wrote:

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He hung around on the ballot a lot longer than anyone expected to, and the Red Sox started a massive PR campaign to get him elected, primarily through Dan Shaughnessy, since they have their arm so far up his ass they can move a finger and make him sing "Yankee Doodle Dandy" on command. That's another guy who really doesn't belong -- "most feared hitter," my ass.

Agreed, IBB numbers show the "fear" pretty clearly. The "marketing" of Rice's candidacy was a sharp contrast to his Red Sox contemporary Dwight Evans. I'm not saying Dewey should go in, either, but in totality his offense numbers are pretty impressive and he sustained them well into his 30s. I hate to say it, as a Red Sox fan from childhood, but the team has had a racism rep for a long time and its HoF contingent looks pretty white. I have to wonder.

I ... I don't even know how to parse this when we're talking about whether a player belongs in the Hall of Fame, which is a distinction based entirely upon statistics.

Yeah, if the criteria are "more than just stats," what are they? Is that a door we really want opened?

[Timby]

Nationals sign Rafael Soriano.

That pitching staff has officially progressed to "sick."

[Use of Time]

So my brother is friends with the Upton brothers because he played high school baseball with Justin. They were all hanging out last week here in Virginia Beach and he was telling me that B.J. spent five minutes in Atlanta and didn't want to go anywhere else. I just hope he behaves himself.