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Science and Technology "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." - Carl Sagan.

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Old July 10 2012, 08:38 AM   #136
Reverend
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
Reverend wrote: View Post
I ask you, what is the simplest explanation for where babies come form? An efficient and discrete avian based delivery system, or a series of complicated biochemical interactions based on billions of years of cellular evolution through an essentially random and chaotic process of natural selection? The stork idea is certainly simpler, but does invoking Occam's razor make it correct? Of course not.
Your 'avian delivery system' fails to coherently explain where babies come from - by a large margin (so, how do these birds get those children?). As such, it's not a viable explanation - not even close.
Magic...or aliens.
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Old July 10 2012, 09:02 AM   #137
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
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Nobody's going to sign up for a gig like that. Wasting the best of your life in a tin can?
As opposed to wasting the best of your life doing a meaningless job in a cubicle (if you're relatively lucky)?
Or in a tin can at sea?
Or going on vacation in a tin can at sea?
You are joking of course.
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Old July 10 2012, 02:11 PM   #138
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Re: Ancient Aliens

RAMA wrote: View Post
Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
PurpleBuddha wrote: View Post



Hell, life in general could exist on a few million planets in the milky way while we have yet to look at or detect any one of them. Who is to say how common place it is for intelligent life to develop FTL (making the rather larger assumption that such a thing is possible)?

I agree that your question would apply if the claim was that life which can travel faster than light is common place and that such travel is so much faster than the speed of light that they could travel to any point in the universe (or galaxy if we confine things to the Milky Way) in a short period of time at relatively low cost/expenditure. But even in such a case, would the FTL races have time or desire to visit everyone? What if there are billions of different planets in the universe with life? Would they get to them all? How many races have FTL ability? 1/100th? 1/1000th? Fewer? And this is all assuming such technology does exist.
Oh, but to hear some tell it, any civilization that gets near our level of development will inevitably reach the Singularity, which promises technologies we can't even imagine. At a minimum, there should be Von Neumann probes everywhere, since those are so easy and cheap to build.

Or they have other concerns...if they aren't lonely, if they don't need our resoruces, what are they doing? In a multi-species race for nearly unlimited resources of a black hole at galactic center? Exploring time/multiverses? Exploring endless permutations of a superintelligent AI lifespan?

Sadly, there is no evidence. On the other hand, as exponentially advancing as our technology is, we may also be sadly inadequate to the task of knowing for, oh at least a few decades if not longer..

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Old July 10 2012, 02:17 PM   #139
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Re: Ancient Aliens

The alien plan:

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Old July 10 2012, 02:50 PM   #140
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
Occam's razor is a scientifical law, not an 'internet law'.
It's neither.

It's simply a principle - not a law - used in reasoning. Don't assume a more complex explanation where a simpler one is sufficient to explain the observed evidence.

The only reason a simpler explanation is more likely to be true is that it involves fewer assumptions that are not in evidence and therefore contains fewer opportunities for error at the start.

In any given situation, however, the conclusion reached via Occam's Razor may be wrong and a more complex explanation may be right. There's no law or any "law-like proposition" involved here.
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Old July 10 2012, 02:51 PM   #141
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post

Oh, but to hear some tell it, any civilization that gets near our level of development will inevitably reach the Singularity, which promises technologies we can't even imagine. At a minimum, there should be Von Neumann probes everywhere, since those are so easy and cheap to build.

Or they have other concerns...if they aren't lonely, if they don't need our resoruces, what are they doing? In a multi-species race for nearly unlimited resources of a black hole at galactic center? Exploring time/multiverses? Exploring endless permutations of a superintelligent AI lifespan?

Sadly, there is no evidence. On the other hand, as exponentially advancing as our technology is, we may also be sadly inadequate to the task of knowing for, oh at least a few decades if not longer..

RAMA
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More likely, actually. Occam's Razor and all that.
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Old July 10 2012, 02:52 PM   #142
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Re: Ancient Aliens

My Name Is Legion wrote: View Post
Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post


Or they have other concerns...if they aren't lonely, if they don't need our resoruces, what are they doing? In a multi-species race for nearly unlimited resources of a black hole at galactic center? Exploring time/multiverses? Exploring endless permutations of a superintelligent AI lifespan?

Sadly, there is no evidence. On the other hand, as exponentially advancing as our technology is, we may also be sadly inadequate to the task of knowing for, oh at least a few decades if not longer..

RAMA
It's just as likely they are busy not existing.
More likely, actually. Occam's Razor and all that.
I was trying to be charitable.
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Old July 10 2012, 03:10 PM   #143
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Gov Kodos wrote: View Post
The alien plan:
Sadly their plan is becoming outdated, as Andy Murray being the first Brit to even make it to the final since 1938 hints...

Is it wrong of me that this sketch was all I could think of all weekend? And is it sad of me that I recognise the saucer sound effect from The Dalek Invasion Of Earth?
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Old July 10 2012, 04:05 PM   #144
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Haven't read the whole thread so apologies if I'm repeating this but :

Allowing even low estimates for the number of galaxies / suns / planets in the 'Goldilocks Zone' / life starting / intelligence makes it probable that intelligent life evolved elsewhere. Factor in FTL travel (which is a stretch) and you could still get theoretical visitors.

None of this, however, takes into account the staggering timescale or 'deep time' since the Big Bang. The chances of one of the aforementioned 'visitors' civilisations existing at the same time as ours is very very small indeed.
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Old July 10 2012, 06:11 PM   #145
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Deckerd wrote: View Post
Nobody's going to sign up for a gig like that. Wasting the best of your life in a tin can?
Some people would. You wouldn't need that many, and it wouldn't be that hard to find enough volunteers.
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Old July 10 2012, 06:37 PM   #146
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
In the case of Fermi's paradox, the simplest explanation is...
Explanation for what? For why the million-item list of "things we don't know about extrasolar planets" includes whether or not life exists on any of them? Why does that even require an explanation?

The fermi paradox DOES build upon a cascade of assumptions, none of which have any support. The fundamental assumption is that if life was common in the universe, we could become aware of it, and that furthermore if INTELLIGENT life was common, we would be aware of it by now. Both of those are false assumptions, and all the others proceed from them.

Only if ALL - EVERY SINGLE ONE - of the aliens are hiding
Even the most far-fetched and romanticized sci-fi visions of what an interstellar civilization might look like, if that civilization does not possess FTL travel, the chances of their being aware of us are extremely small; significantly, our chances of being aware of them are much much smaller.

"100 million years is MORE than enough time to colonize the galaxy with ships only able of 0,1 lightspeed - 100 times more, to be exact."
What does a 100 million year old interstellar colonial species look like? At those timescales, our assumptions about who they are or what they are doing go right out the window, and recognizing it would become even harder: Just as far as Earth is concerned, 100 million years is a long enough time for a colony to be built, destroyed, then rebuilt and destroyed again over the course of a million years before being subsumed by erosion and elemental stress to the point that any artifacts of civilization would cease to be recognizable. OTOH, this being the Ancient Aliens thread we must also entertain the possibility that humans are the descendants of an alien race that colonized Earth millions of years ago before their society decayed into barbarism and the record of their origins was lost to time.

This, of course, stems from the assumption that interstellar colonization is likely to be a priority for spacefaring civilizations, when the only datapoint we have -- ourselves -- suggests otherwise.

Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
If I could get rid of any two "laws" frequently cited on the Internet, they would definitely be Godwin's Law, and yes, Occam's Fucking Razor. "This explanation is complex, therefore it is wrong!" It encourages the absolute worst varieties of intellectual laziness.
I guess Karl Popper and many other philosophers of science, philosophers, scientists were 'intelectually lazy', eh?
They definitely didn't spend a lot of time on the internet, which is why Occam's Razor, applied in this thread, is being applied as an internet rule.

In your own words: This explanation is MORE complex, therefore it is LIKELY wrong!
Is intellectually lazy. Take the two competing explanations:
1) "She stole my wallet because she is three months behind on paying her rent and she was terrified of being evicted and winding up homeless."

2) "She stole my wallet because it was shiny."

The simplest explanation is the more likely one WITH ALL OTHER CIRCUMSTANCES BEING THE SAME. Occam's Razor is the LAST thing you resort to when evidence supports both explanations equally but one explanation requires more elements than the other. If you skip the evaluation part and don't care about the evidence, then you're really just making declarations.
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Old July 11 2012, 04:25 AM   #147
RAMA
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Re: Ancient Aliens

This TEDeducation animated short is amusing and informative:

Why Can't We See Evidence of ALien Life

http://www.33rdsquare.com/2012/03/wh...lien-life.html
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Old July 11 2012, 11:37 AM   #148
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Re: Ancient Aliens

I think one of the reasons that humans are looking for other intelligent life is that we want to know whether or not there is the possibility that we too might not go extinct. So, for me the question is about the mortality of our species. We humans are obsessive about death and, in the Western World, the death of civilizations, aren't we?

I know that the Neanderthals didn't create a civilization, yet I also know that they were intelligent and that some of them had sex with humans. So, for a brief period of history, humans were in contact with and interacting with another intelligent life form. Why do we forget that?

I am going out on a limb here, which may be sawed off the proverbial tree. I have noticed that nature generally doesn't do things in singles; 'she' does things in twos or more. Why wouldn't 'she' have created more than one intelligent species, capable of creating a civilization, and why are people arguing that two civilizations existing in the same time period could be an impossibility?

I do have to ask, why did the Q (quelle, German for "source"), the 'writer' of the physical laws that govern this universe, make intergalactic, and even interuniversal, travel difficult, if not nigh improbable?

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Old July 11 2012, 12:09 PM   #149
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Re: Ancient Aliens

Neanderthals were human.
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Old July 11 2012, 07:16 PM   #150
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Re: Ancient Aliens

And "nature" is not a she or anything for that matter. Like the cylons, nature does not have a plan.
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