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Old June 19 2012, 01:25 AM   #181
Admiral Buzzkill
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
"Promising research" doesn't mean "practical, economical application." Lots of stuff looks "promising" in the lab and on paper, until you try to gear it up for mass production and realize it's critically flawed. Such is life. Would you stake your life on "promising research" or something you know actually works?
I've been watching "promising research," even "breakthroughs" in finding a cure for cancer for fifty years.
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Old June 19 2012, 04:18 AM   #182
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
Short-term (as in, the next few decades), population is a problem, not just because of the number of people, but because of the demands those people will place on the environment. I'll be blunt: there is no way 9 billion people can live as large as Americans do.
I don't think future Americans are going to live like current Americans do. America's carbon foot print will probably shrink because it has to and also because we as a society are becoming tired of consumption. It's the reason why the recovery hasn't really happened.

It's just not possible, and technology is not going to solve that in a brief enough timeframe (<50 years) for it to matter.
It took 100 years between Malthus' An Essay on the Principle of Population which was based on fertilizer use and the Haber process.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haber_process

Remember that's without computers, internet, cell phones etc..
We can make a radical change in 25 years. Look at what cellphones and the internet has done.

This notion that technology will keep plodding forward at an accelerating rate assumes facts not in evidence:
You are forgetting one thing. More people means more scientist and more engineers. That alone will ensure continuing progress. The number of scientist literally tippled in size when the BRIC countries modernized and there is still room for growth.

One thing that is limiting you is the idea of a Western dominate scientific community. That's about to end in the next 25 years. Hopefully replaced by a more global community. That's why I really don't care about the US's scientific standing. If the country decides to stay dumb than other countries will make up the slack.
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Old June 19 2012, 04:25 AM   #183
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

My Name Is Legion wrote: View Post
I've been watching "promising research," even "breakthroughs" in finding a cure for cancer for fifty years.
There is never going to be a "cure" for cancer but we have made huge advances. Childhood leukemia's are rarely fatal now and we've tripled the lifespan of women with breast cancer. The new generation of anti-emetics (and that includes marijuana) have allowed more patients to complete their chemotherapy, raising their chance for remission.

The next generation of targeted immune therapies maybe the closest we ever get to a cure.
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Old June 19 2012, 05:02 AM   #184
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

I'll give you that - marijuana is indeed a new innovation.
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Old June 19 2012, 05:12 AM   #185
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Set Harth wrote: View Post
I'll give you that - marijuana is indeed a new innovation.
Yeah I didn't write that correctly. Using marijuana as an anti-emetic and appetite inducer was pretty novel but it was an accidental finding and it's still pretty controversial.
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Old June 19 2012, 05:23 AM   #186
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

I say we find whoever recently discovered the connection between marijuana and appetite and give that guy the Nobel prize.
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Old June 19 2012, 06:26 PM   #187
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Personally I've given up bringing reason to this thread but can somebody please teach Rama how to multiquote?
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Old June 21 2012, 12:36 AM   #188
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

http://singularityhub.com/2012/06/20...EMAIL_CAMPAIGN
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Old June 21 2012, 02:40 AM   #189
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Don't we have a "yawn" smiley yet?

The Japanese like their robots too, but theirs are cuter. None of this advances AI an inch.

We will be using fossil fuels in 20 years. I guarantee it.
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Old June 21 2012, 02:43 AM   #190
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

My Name Is Legion wrote: View Post
The Japanese like their robots too, but theirs are cuter.
SCHWING!
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Old June 21 2012, 03:17 AM   #191
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?...72&postcount=2
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Old June 21 2012, 04:37 AM   #192
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

My Name Is Legion wrote: View Post
Don't we have a "yawn" smiley yet?

The Japanese like their robots too, but theirs are cuter. None of this advances AI an inch.

We will be using fossil fuels in 20 years. I guarantee it.
AI is advancing even if it's slowly. I remember in the 90's when people were ready to give up on speech recognition. Now we have Siri and Google speak. I also remember people saying that computers would never go beyond brute force computation, but look there's Watson using adaptive algorithms to win Jeopardy.

When humans develop AI, it won't be like HAL9000 or Data. It'll probably be like an advance app that runs in the background.
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Old June 21 2012, 05:11 AM   #193
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Siri still has a few kinks to work out...

My friend asked it who was playing Lois Lane in the new Superman film and it said "John Williams".
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Old June 21 2012, 05:41 AM   #194
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Set Harth wrote: View Post
Siri still has a few kinks to work out...

My friend asked it who was playing Lois Lane in the new Superman film and it said "John Williams".
That's a lot better than in the 2000 when speech recognition could barely understand individual words much less whole sentences.
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Old June 21 2012, 01:38 PM   #195
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

My Name Is Legion wrote: View Post
Don't we have a "yawn" smiley yet?

The Japanese like their robots too, but theirs are cuter. None of this advances AI an inch.

We will be using fossil fuels in 20 years. I guarantee it.
I have no doubt of that. A full transition from fossil fuels is going to take at least 50 years, longer if we keep putting it off like we are now.
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