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Science and Technology "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." - Carl Sagan.

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Old November 28 2012, 10:56 PM   #211
Chemahkuu
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

Don't lecture us about technology when you can't even hit the fucking multi-quote button right in front of you.
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Old November 29 2012, 12:00 AM   #212
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

Well, we still have people talking about returning to the Garden of Eden, which was a dystopian nightmare where humanity's total population was only two, who had no clothes or shelter and just one piece of fruit between them, snakes underfoot, and whose expectations were so low that they thought it was paradise. Many Russian academics thought this proved the Garden of Eden was located somewhere in the Soviet Union.
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Old November 29 2012, 12:45 AM   #213
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

RAMA wrote: View Post
sojourner wrote: View Post
Oh I believe technology will do wonderful things in the future and look forward to it. I just don't think that in 40 years we'll be living in the garden of eden with all of our problems solved.
No one said that would happen, only that many problems can be solved to REACH a singularity, after that all bets are off.

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See. Here's the exact problem. You take the written word too literally.
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Old November 29 2012, 06:05 AM   #214
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

RAMA wrote: View Post
"Ordinary technological progress" apparently isn't really what most people including the technologically oriented thought it was.
That depends on who you ask, doesn't it? Impressed though you may be by the cutting edge of what is now technologically possible, most people alive today don't have access to the state of the art, and even if they're aware of it, are unlikely to ever see it in person.

I believe I posted articles about social progress and the associated evolution of the brain that would mitigate your ideas on the subjects.
I believe your articles about "evolution of the brain" were only peripherally -- if at all -- related to social progress in any way shape or form. Suffice to say that economic prosperity has a positive effect on social conditions, whether that prosperity results from better technology or growth-inducing policies. Technology ITSELF isn't really a factor in this, and it sure as hell isn't a factor in the evolution of the human brain (it's actually the other way around).

I established how the forward thrust of a singularity relies not on one thing but a multi-faceted set of advancements. I even posted an article that contradicts your idea that evolution has nothing to do with technology. I still feel these arguments are correct.
The thing is, you never bother to "establish" as part of a coherent causal pattern. You go about it like an End Times speculator reading headlines about natural disasters and political intrigue and then try to argue that "all signs point to impending global catastrophe of some kind." IOW, these things are SUGGESTIVE of a singularity-ish future, not because of what they actually represent, but because of how they make you FEEL.

Hence your last line is especially cogent: you surely FEEL that those arguments are correct, but at the end of the day your FEELINGS aren't a very convincing argument.

I also argued before that a transhumanist future will take over for natural selection
To which I replied that you had not given the matter enough serious thought if you really believed that transhumanist technology would be ubiquitously available to everyone, everywhere, free of cost. It's entirely likely that a select group of individuals who first adopt the technology find ways to artificially prevent everyone else from getting it and become a new, closed-circle power structure dictating policy and priority for the rest of humanity. The point, if you recall, is that those who achieve power tend to jealously guard the exclusivity of that power as much as they can, since it makes it easier to exercise that power uncontested.

Your reply, IIRC, was to point out the philanthropy of the Coca Cola company experimenting with a device that would produce clean water for African villagers.

Again, there's a huge difference between seriously considering the possibilities and hoping/praying/imaging for the best. You spend a lot of time doing the latter.
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Old November 29 2012, 06:25 AM   #215
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

RAMA wrote: View Post
What has happened is that people, including if not especially sci-fi writers have become enamored with dystopias, and now when shown that it might not have to be that way, they become defensive.
Actually, what happens is that YOUNG sci-fi writers -- especially those born in the 70s and 80s -- approach their art with a bitter cynicism of which the dystopian future is as much a cautionary tale as it is a harsh critique of the present. Strange Days, for example, can be seen as a preemptive indictment of the sort of escapism and petty voyerism inherent in the Youtube generation, while at the same time taking direct pot shots at the moral bankruptcy of the Law and Order paradigm.

Stephenson himself did the same thing in Snow Crash, where the wholesale privatization of just about everything IS the dystopia; there are actually huge tracts of realestate that are perfectly nice to live in, they're just guarded by killer robots and electric fences and anyone who can't get into them winds up living in a self-storage unit. The Diamond Age followed most of the same themes, except it amplified them fifty fold by depicting self-assembling nanomachines that enabled the rich and powerful to custom build entire continents on a whim.

Connect with my above post: where the inheritors of transhumanist technology jealously guard their advantage? In The Diamond Age, the world's most powerful educational tool winds up in the hands of a poor girl only after her big brother clobbers its lead programmer with a nunchaku. That underscores a growing trend in modern fiction in general: it's a lot less about the technology than it is about the PEOPLE.
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Old November 29 2012, 01:08 PM   #216
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

I'm looking forward to the proliferation of OLED displays bringing paper thin flexible display technology to the mass market in an affordable way. I imagine displays plastered everywhere, like you see in SCIFI movies, and things like arm band computers that you wear around your arm with a touch display, paper thin.

Displays like this, that fold out and retract - http://www.flashfilmworks.com/MovieG...anet/red06.jpg

And you always see in scifi movies people wearing really thin displays/computers on their arms, to control functions. I see this being a future generation music player, able to store and play your music, take pictures, basically everything a cell phone can do now but the thickness of paper. OLEDs can lead to this.

Now I know we have OLED technology now, but it is so very expensive, and you don't really see any TV's using it yet, but it's a technology that in the next 15 years can evolve and the price will come down, meaning mass production, people buying them, and lots of interesting things coming out of OLED development.

I also look forward to real (not fake) projected 3D holograms. I'm longing for the day this happens. I won't accept faking it, i.e. using shutter glasses, or displays that fake your eyes into seeing 3D. I want real projected free floating 3D holograms. I can see this happening in the next 15 years.
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Old December 1 2012, 10:06 PM   #217
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Re: What are your top 5 technologies of the next 15 years?

Just getting some use from waste heat will be a big step:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2012/11/the...irt-cheap.html

This will be good for certain uses--along certain lines.
http://gizmodo.com/5964609/custom-3d...ger-than-steel

Now for a Cygnus model using this approach.
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