MLB Discussion - 2012 Season

[Ar-Pharazon]

And to make Timby's head explode - Starlin Castro gets a 7 year deal.

Though the per year amounts aren't exactly stratospheric.

[Timby]

Jesus Christ. It's 7/53 (eighth year with $16 million team option in 2020 kicks it to 8/69, with $2 million escalators for 19 and 20 if he finishes in the top 5 in MVP voting during the life of the contract), so the AAV isn't obscene, but the Cubs outsmarted themselves on this. They'll save money if he becomes a perennial All-Star, but if his BABIP comes down (which it is guaranteed to do), he never gets over his absolute fear of taking a walk, and he doesn't improve defensively, then they're overpaying by a gross amount. This was a case where the team should wait a couple more years and see how the player develops, considering he was under team control for another four seasons.

Okay, Theo, flip him for some world-class prospects at the winter meetings after you convince someone that he's worth their entire farm system, because I'm sure that was your endgame all along. GO.

[Kirby]

Hey Matt Kemp, that's two full speed wall hits in two days. The 'warning track' includes the word WARNING for a reason.
Glad you're ok though.

[Mr. Laser Beam]

^ At least he wasn't playing in Toronto at the time...Rogers Centre has no warning track!

[Kirby]

Mr. Laser Beam wrote:

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^ At least he wasn't playing in Toronto at the time...Rogers Centre has no warning track!

That's just evil. I love it.

[Mr. Laser Beam]

It's odd...there is a strip around the outside of Rogers Centre's field that LOOKS like a warning track, but it is literally the same field surface - just painted brown instead of green. Which of course defeats the whole purpose - the point, the thing that makes it a WARNING, is that it should be a different surface, with a different texture!

[R. Star]

Timby wrote:

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Jesus Christ. It's 7/53 (eighth year with $16 million team option in 2020 kicks it to 8/69, with $2 million escalators for 19 and 20 if he finishes in the top 5 in MVP voting during the life of the contract), so the AAV isn't obscene, but the Cubs outsmarted themselves on this. They'll save money if he becomes a perennial All-Star, but if his BABIP comes down (which it is guaranteed to do), he never gets over his absolute fear of taking a walk, and he doesn't improve defensively, then they're overpaying by a gross amount. This was a case where the team should wait a couple more years and see how the player develops, considering he was under team control for another four seasons.

Okay, Theo, flip him for some world-class prospects at the winter meetings after you convince someone that he's worth their entire farm system, because I'm sure that was your endgame all along. GO.

Just when we were almost finally through the Soriano contract too. Guess it wouldn't be the Cubs without an overpaid, underachieving player. Maybe I'm wrong and Starlin's going to magically learn how to work the count this off season.

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I hope Yadier Molina is okay...

[Kirby]

Boy, the Rockies are making the Dodgers look like the Rockies.

[Use of Time]

Strasburg vs. Medlan, a study in how to handle a pitcher recovering from Tommy John. Prior to this season the two of them had the surgery within a few weeks of each other. The Braves opted to use Medlan as a long reliever and ease him back into the starting role later in the season. The Nationals opted to send Strasburg to the hill every fifth day. I don't know if the Nationals had any idea that their season would be this succesful but when it's all over it could be the Braves with a sharp young ace heading into the post season while Strasburg bites his fingernails on the pine.

[Timby]

R. Star wrote:

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Just when we were almost finally through the Soriano contract too. Guess it wouldn't be the Cubs without an overpaid, underachieving player. Maybe I'm wrong and Starlin's going to magically learn how to work the count this off season.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't an obscene overpay or anything like that. No one is saying that his skills are going to deteriorate or that he's not a decent player ... just that he's not suddenly going to develop the magical ability to turn into a special player rather than just a good one. He's had enough at-bats to give a pretty decent projection. He'll be a major league regular, but then again so is Jeff Francoeur. This isn't a bad thing, but the notion that he's some sort of top player is just wrong, yet people continue to argue about him because he's young.

Now that BABIP is down to something like a reasonable level, he's rocking an 89 wRC+ and that's going to look pretty shitty if he gets moved off of short (and it's entirely likely that he'll be moved). Once the singles go away, the outlook isn't great for a guy who doesn't hit much else other than singles and can't take a walk.

I think it's a bad contract because you have to say things like "if nothing goes wrong, it will be, uh, fair I guess," which isn't what you want to do when signing a 22-year-old for eight years.

[Ar-Pharazon]

Well, the Cubs come back from being down 9-3 and 11-9.

They still stink, but comebacks aren't something they've been capable of for a few years.

[Use of Time]

You forgot to tell Timby that Castro worked a 3-2 count and singled in a run in the ninth off F-Rod. See. He's paying off already!

[Timby]

Use of Time wrote:

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You forgot to tell Timby that Castro worked a 3-2 count and singled in a run in the ninth off F-Rod. See. He's paying off already!

Yeah, and Shawn fucking Estes absolutely clowned the Reds in Game 158 of 2003 to push the Cubs ahead of the Astros in the pennant race. Didn't make him a good pitcher.

I was over-exaggerating earlier when I said that Castro would be fighting for a roster spot in a few years. He won't, he'll be a regular somewhere. But his defense doesn't look to be going anywhere quickly, and most think that he'll be too heavy to play the position at some point during the contract, considering how ridiculously quickly he's filling out. And he certainly doesn't have an 80 hit tool -- when your skill set is "BABIP-dependent singles hitter who runs really, really fast," your ceiling isn't terribly high. He could be the next Ricky Gutierrez, honestly.

Like I said, it isn't an overpay. But I don't get the Cubs locking him down like this, unless they were either A) hoping to flip him or B) paranoid that an arbitrator would look at !~HITS~! and ignore every other peripheral. The latter is entirely possible, I suppose. But I'm praying for the former, just to reverse the trend of every #1 Cubs prospect being deemed "untouchable," only for them to be exposed and then dumped for a box of baseballs.

[Use of Time]

Well maybe him filling out will equate to some power down the road kind of like Miguel Cabrera. I see him making the move to third base if that happens.