RSS iconTwitter iconFacebook icon

The Trek BBS title image

The Trek BBS statistics

Threads: 139,620
Posts: 5,426,343
Members: 24,810
Currently online: 437
Newest member: 8 of 9

TrekToday headlines

IDW Publishing December Trek Comics
By: T'Bonz on Sep 17

September Loot Crate Features Trek Surprise
By: T'Bonz on Sep 16

USS Enterprise Miniature Out For Refit
By: T'Bonz on Sep 16

Star Trek/Planet of the Apes Comic Crossover
By: T'Bonz on Sep 16

Trek 3 Shooting Next Spring?
By: T'Bonz on Sep 16

Star Trek: Alien Domain Game Announced
By: T'Bonz on Sep 15

Red Shirt Diaries Episode Three
By: T'Bonz on Sep 15

Made Out Of Mudd Photonovel
By: T'Bonz on Sep 15

Takei Has Growth Removed
By: T'Bonz on Sep 15

Retro Review: Tears of the Prophets
By: Michelle on Sep 12


Welcome! The Trek BBS is the number one place to chat about Star Trek with like-minded fans. Please login to see our full range of forums as well as the ability to send and receive private messages, track your favourite topics and of course join in the discussions.

If you are a new visitor, join us for free. If you are an existing member please login below. Note: for members who joined under our old messageboard system, please login with your display name not your login name.


Go Back   The Trek BBS > Entertainment & Interests > Science Fiction & Fantasy

Science Fiction & Fantasy Farscape, Babylon 5, Star Wars, Firefly, vampires, genre books and film.

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old December 9 2011, 01:33 AM   #76
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
All 'models' predicting the technological singularity are based upon, they require continual exponential growth - of intelligence, of technology, etc.
Well, if history showed anything, it showed that exponential growth in anything other than abstract mathematics is not sustainable - regardless of your attempts to 'cheat' this rule.
Technology matures and can't be improved further; etc.

IF you can keep up continual exponential growth in the AI field (and the signs are that you can't), you may - or may not (perhaps 'intelligence' in humans is a mature 'technology') - be able to have a being more intelligent than humans, functioning. But, in any case, you won't be able to keep improving that intelligence; sooner or later, you'll hit a wall.
Singularity proponents gamble that this 'wall' is beyond the singularity - and they have no convincing arguments for it.

It's almost certain there isn't a logic fundamentally 'better' than the one known to us - meaning, we have already hit the wall in this area; you may have a being thinking faster than us (quantitatively), but not qualitatively 'better'.
This qualm is easily explained away..exponential growth has limits till it reaches the next paradigm shift, there is already a next generation of processor technology(s) ready to supplant the current one...in fact, the aforementioned 3D chip technology is one of them, and it appeared just two days ago. The fact that there have been 5 paradigms already that fit the pattern makes it less like wishful thinking and more like a probability.
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 9 2011, 01:40 AM   #77
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Christopher wrote: View Post
^If you want me to take your argument at all seriously, don't mention Kurzweil. His beliefs seem more rooted in spirituality and wishful thinking than science. At the very least, I consider him overoptimistic.

If he wasn't already a well known inventor, computer scientist, futurist with quite a resume' you may be right, and although he does have a lot of "followers" its for good reason, he's very accurate in his predictions based on data. His ideas have almost nothing to do with spirituality except on a metaphorical level, it has to do with our failings in our language to describe the accelerating level of technology, and ultimate consequences, which for all intents and purposes may seem spiritual to people. I always looked for evidence of wishful thinking in his views and I don't see it.
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 9 2011, 02:55 AM   #78
Christopher
Writer
 
Christopher's Avatar
 
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
All 'models' predicting the technological singularity are based upon, they require continual exponential growth - of intelligence, of technology, etc.
Well, if history showed anything, it showed that exponential growth in anything other than abstract mathematics is not sustainable - regardless of your attempts to 'cheat' this rule.
Technology matures and can't be improved further; etc.
Yes. Real-life processes aren't simple mathematical curves; there are many factors that interact and affect one another, and eventually any short-term trend is going to slow or stop or even be reversed. Generally, the norm is equilibrium; rapid change occurs when the circumstances are right and there's a need or incentive for it, but eventually a new equilibrium will be reached and things will stabilize again.

Sure, computers are transforming our lives in ways our forebears couldn't predict, and that might continue. Eventually we may have computers so advanced that they can precisely model and predict things like weather, natural disasters, economic patterns, social and psychological dysfunctions, etc. and give us reliable mechanisms for avoiding problems and disasters before they happen, bringing a new age of peace and security and prosperity to all. And they may bring new breakthroughs in physics and technology that will let us expand into space and improve our standard of living and restore the Earth's ecosystem. But the people who enjoy it will probably not be any more fundamentally intelligent than we are. Will they have more immediate access to any information they need? Sure, and they'll be able to draw on the problem-solving ability of the rest of humanity through crowdsourcing as well as that of the superfast computers. But they'll still probably think on much the same level that we do. And there's no guarantee that the computers will be any more intelligent, just faster and more powerful.
__________________
Christopher L. Bennett Homepage -- Site update 4/8/14 including annotations for Rise of the Federation: Tower of Babel

Written Worlds -- My blog
Christopher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 9 2011, 03:45 AM   #79
xortex
Commodore
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Scientists experiment because they don't know the outcome of events until after they've done it. Except by the time they learn it was a mistake, it's already too late, they can't undo it and have let the cat out of the bag. 'Lawnmower Man' was an example of this. The mad sadistic greedy vengeful scientist is one of sci-fi's oldest tropes. GR and Trek shied away from it as he didn't want it or space pirates as standard sci-fi cliches to fall back on. He didn't even want to use Klingons.
xortex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 9 2011, 07:46 AM   #80
Nerys Myk
Fleet Admiral
 
Nerys Myk's Avatar
 
Location: House of Kang, now with ridges
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

xortex wrote: View Post
Scientists experiment because they don't know the outcome of events until after they've done it. Except by the time they learn it was a mistake, it's already too late, they can't undo it and have let the cat out of the bag. 'Lawnmower Man' was an example of this. The mad sadistic greedy vengeful scientist is one of sci-fi's oldest tropes. GR and Trek shied away from it as he didn't want it or space pirates as standard sci-fi cliches to fall back on. He didn't even want to use Klingons.
He didn't want to use Klingons?????? In TNG initially, but that soon went out the window. That was more TNG standing on its own than anything else. TOS had a few "mad" scientists. Dr. Korby and Dr. Adams come to mind. Then there is Daystrom and good old Janice Lester. As for pirates. Did you notice what Mudd was wearing in "Mudd's Women"?
__________________
The boring one, the one with Khan, the one where Spock returns, the one with whales, the dumb one, the last one, the one with Kirk, the one with the Borg, the stupid one, the bad one, the new one, the other one with Khan.
Nerys Myk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 9 2011, 05:23 PM   #81
Saul
Rear Admiral
 
Saul's Avatar
 
Location: 東京
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

"Le voyage dans la lune".

Using a canon to launch the ship into space. E.pic.
__________________
"It's not that you can see the strings, it's that 40 years later you're still looking at them." - Steven Moffat
"This movie was big. Imagine how big it could have been with me in it?" William Shatner
Saul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 10 2011, 01:16 AM   #82
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Tanks! Not uncommon today, they were something of a shock when they were first used in WWI. First conceived of in real life AND in fiction in 1903 by HG Well's "Land Ironclads" and French captain Levavasseur, whose project was abandoned 5 years later. In 1911 the Austrians developed two independent designs but both were rejected. In America, the tracked tractor was developed in 1907 by Benjamin Holt, his designs were used as a basis for artillery haulers and supply carriers, thousands were produced. The French investigated the idea of combining a tread or "pedrail" on a cannon carrying vehicle, but the British beat them to the punch, using them in battle for the first time in 1916. Developments in tanks stayed steady but tactics didn't between world wars, until finally the infantry and air supported "Blitzkreig" offensive was developed. Tanks today are centered around a combination of size, firepower, speed, protection in a ratio unreachable in the 1940s. The future tanks however, may evolve from large, tall vehicles that can't traverse some public highways and bridges to low profile, speedy fire support. The US has developed an easily air-transportable big-gunned tank that weighs 30 tons less than the current M1, but even more futuristic is the US Army semi-autonomous unmanned technology demonstrator 'Black Knight'...which may be the next wave of tank technology. Eventually they could be armed with kinetic impact weapons based around an electromagnetic rail gun.



FCS

In 1936, HG Wells "Things to Come" showed the development of pre-WWII style tanks to advanced versions of his "land ironclads" Wells Tank. In literature, the Bolo is a huge, AI driven heavy tank. Hover tanks are a common SF tech...with perhaps SW:The Phantom Menace the most prominent of these to reach the movie screen. In much of anime, tanks have been replaced by "mecha", highly mobile armored suits or robots with tank weaponry and unparalleled maneuverability. In some cases, swarms of robots have replaced the single place tank in land combat. Something the US military is already taking seriously: Swarm
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan

Last edited by RAMA; December 10 2011 at 05:36 AM.
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 10 2011, 05:17 AM   #83
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Christopher wrote: View Post
Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
All 'models' predicting the technological singularity are based upon, they require continual exponential growth - of intelligence, of technology, etc.
Well, if history showed anything, it showed that exponential growth in anything other than abstract mathematics is not sustainable - regardless of your attempts to 'cheat' this rule.
Technology matures and can't be improved further; etc.
Yes. Real-life processes aren't simple mathematical curves; there are many factors that interact and affect one another, and eventually any short-term trend is going to slow or stop or even be reversed. Generally, the norm is equilibrium; rapid change occurs when the circumstances are right and there's a need or incentive for it, but eventually a new equilibrium will be reached and things will stabilize again.

Sure, computers are transforming our lives in ways our forebears couldn't predict, and that might continue. Eventually we may have computers so advanced that they can precisely model and predict things like weather, natural disasters, economic patterns, social and psychological dysfunctions, etc. and give us reliable mechanisms for avoiding problems and disasters before they happen, bringing a new age of peace and security and prosperity to all. And they may bring new breakthroughs in physics and technology that will let us expand into space and improve our standard of living and restore the Earth's ecosystem. But the people who enjoy it will probably not be any more fundamentally intelligent than we are. Will they have more immediate access to any information they need? Sure, and they'll be able to draw on the problem-solving ability of the rest of humanity through crowdsourcing as well as that of the superfast computers. But they'll still probably think on much the same level that we do. And there's no guarantee that the computers will be any more intelligent, just faster and more powerful.
A very conventional view(again, a linear view, with simply more power and speed, one that is not supported by past history), but I don't think all that likely, its been said many times that man has reached the ultimate level of intelligence, only to be proven wrong time and again. Frankly, with so much to learn, and with us barely out of the technological cradle, the increases in speed and power inevitably have to help us learn more, but the level real intelligence will be more than that. Star Trek(another linear view), I am almost positive, will not be even remotely accurate. It should pale in comparison to real events.

RAMA wrote: View Post
xortex wrote: View Post
Who invented the transporter and replicator? And computer?
Charles Babbage gets a lot of mileage these days, inventing what is basically a mechanical computer called the difference engine, which a working model was made of in 1991 from his design! Usually when we think steampunk, this is where it originates from.

Computers using more familiar techniques appeared in 1939. In 1940 a computer used remote accessing(like the internet...no Al Gore wasn't around). In 1944, a machine called Colossus did it's number crunching in breaking Nazi codes, it was kept a secret till the 1970s! The famous, and gigantic ENIAC appeared in 1946. The first microcomputer appeared in 1971, things moved slowly but surely, finally snowballing 10 years later into PCs and Macs. In 1960 the first modem was used, and in 1970 Arpanet was started. During the 70s SF writer's often had their terms "used" be real life researchers, such as "worm", et al...

BUT SF writers seemed to be slow in understanding the implications of computers, preferring slide rules to stored program or even mechanical computers of more sophistication. The earliest mention I can find of an info giving machine was in 1726, in Gulliver's Travels. "The Machine Stops"(1909) was a revelation:it provided life support, entertainment, communication and lots of things we associate modern computers with. In 1939, the ever reliable Robert Heinlein used a ship with a navigation computer.

I'm not including other forms of AI in this post.

Computer History

Replicators: First mention..Tom Swift(1910)...byproducts of a cyclotron are used to make any material desired. 1933, The Man Who Woke includes a dizzying array of technologies, including molecular replicators:

Today when we think of replicators, we think of nanotech assemblers, creating whatever we might want from molecules upward. Some current examples of 3D printers are primitive examples of making items out of raw materials for just about any need. NASA uses electron beams in experiments in orbit to create objects.

3D Printing
More 3D printing...

http://www.innovationnewsdaily.com/i...products-2267/

RAMA wrote: View Post
Sometimes Science fiction begats or spurs forward whole philosophies and new fields of study, working almost hand-in-hand with scientists/technologists/futurists. In terms of the Singularity--possibly one of the future defining moments of mankind--defined as a point in time where computers or AI outstrip the natural evolution of human intelligence to the degree that predicting the thought process and technological leaps afterward are impossible to those preceeding it unaided.

The first conceptualization: 1847, the "Primitive Expounder" suggested eventually machines may become perfect, and surpass the ideas of humanity. 1951, Alan Turing expected machines to eventually outstrip humans and take control. In 1958, Stanislaw Ulam wrote:
One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.
I.J. Good wrote of an intelligence explosion in 1965. The idea didn't seem to go anywhere until 1983, when scientist and science fiction writer Verner Vinge was central in popularizing it in his: "The Coming Technological Singularity" essay(expanded in 1993), and it specifically tied the term in with AI. He wrote novels using the speculation in 1986 and 1992, "The Fire Upon the Deep" being one of the most acclaimed and popular of the sub-genre. Advances in computers tied into Moore's Law of exponential growth in transistors placed on an integrated circuits and later processing speed and memory capacity made the idea seem more plausible. Cybernetic researchers such as Hans Moravec claimed the reality of advancing AI would have a timeline, and predicted the future on these mathematical models in 1988. The pace of sholarly and speculaive books continued, in 2005 Ray Kurzweil combined theories of nanotech, AI and immortality into a book which was made into a film. He espouses the positive side of the explosion of intelligence. Also in 2005, the story Accelerando makes an attempt at the "impossible", trying to discern what generations of a family might be like before, during and after the singularity. Another type of singularity might be the evolution from physical beings to discrete energy beings, or those that evolve and "leave" the universe. Speculation on such events have often led directly from first evolving into AI or mechanical beings, as in Gregory Benford's far future stories of the Galactic Center, or the nanotech manifested, virtual beings of Stephen Baxter's "The Time ships". Star Trek has multiple examples of such beings.

So far 3 non-fiction movies have been made on the subject of a technological singularity.

In SF, visual fiction has barely touched the topic...Colossus:The Forbin Project(1970), Demon Seed, War Games, Terminator have all scratched the surface of the subject portraying relatively one-sided views of computer takeover. A much more expansive film, The Matrix and it's sequels go into it with more depth, where AI and humanity finally reach an uneasy equilibrium in the end. A culture that builds a Dyson sphere/swarm or other monumental works involving whole solar systems including ringworlds, might well have gone through a Singularity, or even several. Examples of these have appeared in STNG, Andromeda, Stargate, Halo, Ringworld.


RAMA
Edit: It occurs to me STTMP may be one of the largest scale examples of singularity ever seen in fiction...firstly, the evolved AI, evidently spawned by other machines into a huge living entity...it quantifies almost everything in the universe in its massive databanks much as predicted in the intelligent universe theory within the singularity. Not only do we see the end result, but this omniscient being actually transforms into a human/AI interface!!

Saul wrote: View Post
"Le voyage dans la lune".

Using a canon to launch the ship into space. E.pic.
Something which has never really been abandoned and is alive and kicking today:

http://www.popsci.com/technology/art...supplies-space

lifeboat.com/em/chapter.1.pdf

RAMA wrote: View Post
Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
All 'models' predicting the technological singularity are based upon, they require continual exponential growth - of intelligence, of technology, etc.
Well, if history showed anything, it showed that exponential growth in anything other than abstract mathematics is not sustainable - regardless of your attempts to 'cheat' this rule.
Technology matures and can't be improved further; etc.

IF you can keep up continual exponential growth in the AI field (and the signs are that you can't), you may - or may not (perhaps 'intelligence' in humans is a mature 'technology') - be able to have a being more intelligent than humans, functioning. But, in any case, you won't be able to keep improving that intelligence; sooner or later, you'll hit a wall.
Singularity proponents gamble that this 'wall' is beyond the singularity - and they have no convincing arguments for it.

It's almost certain there isn't a logic fundamentally 'better' than the one known to us - meaning, we have already hit the wall in this area; you may have a being thinking faster than us (quantitatively), but not qualitatively 'better'.
This qualm is easily explained away..exponential growth has limits till it reaches the next paradigm shift, there is already a next generation of processor technology(s) ready to supplant the current one...in fact, the aforementioned 3D chip technology is one of them, and it appeared just two days ago. The fact that there have been 5 paradigms already that fit the pattern makes it less like wishful thinking and more like a probability.
http://www.micron.com/innovations/hmc

__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan

Last edited by RAMA; December 10 2011 at 06:16 AM.
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 10 2011, 05:53 AM   #84
xortex
Commodore
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

You know Rama, I really think the singularity is an altered reality. So Vger gaining sentience altered reality and might need to be reexplored again. An alternate reality would seem no different than the one we are in now except that the future may be different especially for the machine - or possible machine man interface like 'Demon Seed'. There's another thread going on in the movie section about Kirk and company never making it out of Vger or at least in the same reality but rather in a virtual simulated reality where he is just a memory or something. Go read it.
xortex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 10 2011, 06:36 AM   #85
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

xortex wrote: View Post
You know Rama, I really think the singularity is an altered reality. So Vger gaining sentience altered reality and might need to be reexplored again. An alternate reality would seem no different than the one we are in now except that the future may be different especially for the machine - or possible machine man interface like 'Demon Seed'. There's another thread going on in the movie section about Kirk and company never making it out of Vger or at least in the same reality but rather in a virtual simulated reality where he is just a memory or something. Go read it.
There are a couple of interesting directions you can go in with this...it was originally Hans Marovec who suggested that in a machine/AI takeover, human beings may not know they are in an altered reality, because the machines will not be belligerent towards us, they will want to keep replicas of us around for historical posterity, even though they have supplanted our biological evolution.

Both Kurzweil and Vinge suggest that when we hit the singularity only those who are not evolved/adapted enough will know it has happened, because the human/AIs will have followed the curve! The others will be left behind.

The Matrix is of course a chief example of AIs recreating man for purposes of their own, in this case, most of the machine AI (but not all) are indifferent to the humans. The human beings don't know about their reality unless they are released from their virtual life.

It's interesting...if events in STTMP are a Matrix-like virtual reality, where the evolved human/V'Ger hybrid has re-created everything after an instant of exploring well...everything, then it has fulfilled the dream of a programmable universe. However, while you can specualte this is the case, there really is no evidence in the movie. Anyway this is another reason to like STTMP.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/AS...ew-atlantis-20
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 10 2011, 08:05 AM   #86
xortex
Commodore
 
Location: Staten Island, NY
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

My thinking is that the singularity has already happened elsewhere and we are living in it's alternate reality. The green plasma bolt that hit Epsilon didn't destroy it - according to memory alpha it 'remembered it to death'. This is what might have happened to the Enterprise except that the transition was seemingly seamless. An alternate future reality would be the goal of every machine.
xortex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 10 2011, 09:26 AM   #87
Australis
Writer
 
Australis's Avatar
 
Location: The Electric Age
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

SOme here has a thread titled 'Robots have tripled since 2007'

Watch this vid:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xgj...elligence_news
Intelligent interaction with an AI, for a given value of intelligence

Scientist are now growing organs of animals, hopefully growing human ones soon from our own cells (I'm desperately waiting for this one to happen).

I prefer Damien Broderick's description, describing the Singularity as the Spike. Plot progress versus time on a graph for any human endeavour (transport or computers come to mind). And yes, PCs are coming to an end with silicon, but once upon a time we did everything we could with sail... and then steam came along, and transport continued to ramp up, in terms of speed and carrying capacity. We find ways.
__________________
"… Times change, and so must I… we all change. When you think about it, we are all different people, all through our lives and that’s okay, that’s good! You've gotta keep moving, so long as you remember all the people that you used to be."
Australis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 12 2011, 07:07 AM   #88
Set Harth
Rear Admiral
 
Set Harth's Avatar
 
Location: Police State
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Saul wrote: View Post
Using a canon to launch the ship into space.
Ha ha.
__________________
"Your advertising's just dandy. Folks'd never guess you ain't got a thing to sell."
Set Harth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 12 2011, 07:27 AM   #89
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Addendun, replicators: Of course Forbidden Planet's Robbie the Robot is an early visual example of a replicator, producing food, alcohol, and lead from molecules.

Flying Saucers: The first description of "flying saucer" shaped objects may have been in the 10th century, with an illustration depicting it in a Japanese manuscript. The first sighting may have occurred in 1290 when a silver disc was reported in Yorkshire. The first modern usage of the word "saucer" appeared in 1947, when newspapers applied the term to a description by Kenneth Arnold. The term took off but was soon replaced to describe a wide variety of unidentified objects, by "UFO".

In SF, different types of saucer like objects appeared in pulps, possibly since 1911. They grew in popularity after the rash of sightings in the 1940s and 50s, coming into widespread use as a signature of something "alien". This was turned on it's ear for the monumental SF film "Forbidden Planet" in 1956, where advanced humanity took to the stars in hyperdive driven starships. In recent years the general shape has made a comeback, appearing in Seaquest DSV, and a rash of alien invasion movies/tv shows starting with Independence Day(1996), continuing with V, District 9, and Skyline.

In reality, the saucer has been a tough nut to crack technologically, examples like the Avrocar and Moller Skycar have met with limited success, either being underpowered, and hard to control or as a technology demonstrator. The WEAV is a project that will attempt to fly using a magnetohydrodynamic drive(as in Hunt for Red October) within a year. http://alien-ufo-sightings.com/2011/...here-on-earth/ Only small UAVs of the saucer shape have met with any success so far.

RAMA
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Old December 14 2011, 01:19 AM   #90
RAMA
Vice Admiral
 
RAMA's Avatar
 
Location: NJ, USA
Re: Some science fiction "firsts"

Christopher wrote: View Post
....But the people who enjoy it will probably not be any more fundamentally intelligent than we are. Will they have more immediate access to any information they need? Sure, and they'll be able to draw on the problem-solving ability of the rest of humanity through crowdsourcing as well as that of the superfast computers. But they'll still probably think on much the same level that we do. And there's no guarantee that the computers will be any more intelligent, just faster and more powerful.
One of the biggest criticisms of this issue is it's not just hardware and speed, but software and what we are actually able to do or learn with it...well it's hard to tell exactly how far we've come, the advances seem subtle to us with linear human perception, but is in fact moving fast...there is a quantifiable way to see if the claims are true, hence:

One recent study ("Report to the President and Congress, Designing a Digital Future: Federally Funded Research and Development in Networking and Information Technology" by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology) states the following: "Even more remarkable—and even less widely understood—is that in many areas, performance gains due to improvements in algorithms have vastly exceeded even the dramatic performance gains due to increased processor speed. The algorithms that we use today for speech recognition, for natural language translation, for chess playing, for logistics planning, have evolved remarkably in the past decade ... Here is just one example, provided by Professor Martin Grötschel of Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik Berlin. Grötschel, an expert in optimization, observes that a benchmark production planning model solved using linear programming would have taken 82 years to solve in 1988, using the computers and the linear programming algorithms of the day. Fifteen years later—in 2003—this same model could be solved in roughly one minute, an improvement by a factor of roughly 43 million. Of this, a factor of roughly 1,000 was due to increased processor speed, whereas a factor of roughly 43,000 was due to improvements in algorithms! Grötschel also cites an algorithmic improvement of roughly 30,000 for mixed integer programming between 1991 and 2008. The design and analysis of algorithms, and the study of the inherent computational complexity of problems, are fundamental subfields of computer science."
Can you imagine the impact of future software that is tied into the AI buffer for the human brain?
__________________
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan
RAMA is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT +1. The time now is 11:47 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.6
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
FireFox 2+ or Internet Explorer 7+ highly recommended.