TV Ratings (4th February) FRINGE FRIDAYS DROPS

[Jax]

-Total Viewers:
CBS: 9.18 million, NBC: 8.18, ABC: 4.98, Fox: 4.15, CW: 2.32

-Adults 18-49:
CBS, FOX & NBC: 1.7 rating/5 share, NBC: 1.6/5, ABC: 1.2/4, CW: 1.0/3

CBS

The Defenders - 8.71 million & 1.3/4

Super Bowl’s Greatest Commericals - 9.55 million & 2.0/6

CSI: NY - 9.34 million & 2.0/6

NBC

Who Do You Think You Are? - 7.32 million & 1.3/5

Dateline (2 hour) - 9.40 million & 1.8/6

ABC

Supernanny - 4.17 million & 1.2/4

Primetime: What Would You Do? - 4.59 million &

A Batbara Walters Special - 6.20 million & 1.1/3

FOX

Kitchen Nightmares - 4.08 million & 1.7/6

Fringe - 4.29 million & 1.7 or 1.6/5

CW

Smallville - 2.37 million & 1.0/3

Supernatural - 2.24 million & 1.0/3

[Jax]

Not worried by Fringe's dip that will most likely end up at 1.6 come the finals because 1.6 is the borderline from the comments about 80% retention FOX wanted. Also no Superbowl show next week so I expect Fringe to bounce up to at least 1.7.

However if it drops anymore than FRINGE will be cancelled and if it stays at 1.6 then we deffo would only get a 13 pickup, a 1.8/9 constantly probably would see a bigger pickup.

[mswood]

Jax where did you get the 1.7 from, all the sites I have seen says Nielsen says the average is 1.6.

And just to show you yearly difference between the two shows from 9pm Thursday last year.

SPN is down 17% from its year ago performance, Fringe is down 47%. Now I do expect all of Fringe's episodes to be 1.5 or higher before the next rerun break (I think 3 more episodes), but thats when spring really hits hard, almost all shows show drops.

Then we have May (and using Smallville as a template) May can be brutal to Friday's especially shows driven by 18-34, and 18-49. Thats due to direct and weekly competition from May Summer blockbusters, something neither Fringe nor Supernatural have ever had to deal with. I wouldn't be surprised to see SPN hit as low as a .7 or Fringe go as low as a 1.1.

[bigdaddy]

How about we worry about May in May. By May there might still be 129 feet of snow outside and no one can get to the movies.

Or the movies might just suck like they did last year. One week at a time.

[Temis the Vorta]

Your unending Polyanna-esque optimism is growing tiresome!

[mswood]

Big Daddy

Yeah and a crappy year for movies in May it was and yet we still had a Friday that had $51 million in tickets sold for one movie. Though right now it doesn't look so bad, people still go to the movies higher in may then any other period from here out.

[Jax]

The 30 mins numbers were 1.7 & 1.6 now for example TVLine (Michael Aussleio new site) they report 1.7 while we got 1.6 from TVBythenumbers (Marc Berman justs copy n pasts whatever TVbythenumbers post)...finals will decide which way it goes.

FOX 80%ish audience shift thst O Reilly wanted means they will accept 1.6 as the lowest. Next week no Superbowl show and Frigne has a AU episode so I see Fringe going back up to at least 1.7. I am not worried yet and Fringe is still 50/50 not likely to be cancelled.

[mswood]

Why would you think Marc gets his numbers from tvbythenumbers? The site operates for tvbythenumbers admit until quite recently that the numbers they got for Friday were from Marc's. That they didn't have their own source until just a couple months ago. Marc just doesn't get in a hurry to post on Friday or Saturday. Bill & Robert or far more interesting in getting page counts, because I do believe this is their primary income. That isn't the case with Marc.

The hour number more accurately reflects the proper points of rounding. The half hour numbers used to determine the average don't.



Reading that new site, Matt reports his calculations was a 1.65, which really makes me think he just rounded the reported half hour numbers. Zap it, Deadline hollywood, hollywood reporter, and ew report 1.6 in addition to the other two sites.
For example, say Fringe got these for the quarter hour:
1.7 at 9
1.6 at 9:15
1.6 at 9:30
1.5 at 9:45

That would give you an hour average of 1.6. But those same ratings reported as half hour blocks would look like this:

1.7 9:00pm
1.6 9:30pm
Which would then by rounded to a 1.7.

Any why tvbythenumebrs state their source indicated the full hour average was a 1.6. But like you say by Monday we will have finals, and with it being close it certainly could go either way.

[bigdaddy]

Who cares.

No really, we are arguing over if it's a 1.6 or a 1.7. I'm sure Fox is now going "Fuck Fringe, it got a 1.6, so now it's canceled. If only it got a 1.7 and we would have kept it!"

[mswood]

No I just like numbers to be as accurate as possible, if only my language skills were of the same mind.

THough Jax since Fringe's fall average (which does of course have rounding errors) is 1.88 (Which could thinks to rounded just barely be 1.8 or could be 1.9) wouldn't the 80% mark be a 1.5 or higher.

That gives the show a little more room to drop and be safe.

And since i never paid attention to the actual statement by Fox. Do they mean as long as the spring average is 80% of the fall's average, or the being more general that we don't want to see any episodes dropping below that 80% mark. The first one not so bad, the 2nd is Yikes.

[Jax]

mswood wrote:

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THough Jax since Fringe's fall average (which does of course have rounding errors) is 1.88 (Which could thinks to rounded just barely be 1.8 or could be 1.9) wouldn't the 80% mark be a 1.5 or higher.

That gives the show a little more room to drop and be safe.

It is 1.5 the 80% thing but I don't buy for a second FOX would renew it at that level so am saying 1.6 is the cut off point. I am still convinced next week the show will go back up to at least 1.7