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Science and Technology "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." - Carl Sagan.

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Old December 28 2013, 10:38 PM   #91
publiusr
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Yes, but that will change.

Folks here hate gov't and authority--the polar opposite of Chinese Honorifics. This might not always be great in terms of thinking in radically different terms--but it gets things done.

See how they handled SARS here:

http://discovermagazine.com/2012/apr...ter-ian-lipkin

What happened when you arrived?


Chen Zhu, now China’s minister of health, was waiting at the airport with a red carpet. The streets were deserted. Tiananmen Square was empty. The Forbidden City was empty. The next morning we went to the Great Hall, and I’m told I am there to design their SARS program. There were 250 people waiting to hear what I wanted them to do....

The first thing I did was sit down with him, and I said, you must do two things for me. There can be no spitting on the sidewalks because this spreads all these germs. And doctors and nurses coming to see you must wash their hands. By the time I left his room half an hour later, there was a prohibition against spitting on sidewalks and there was soap and water and paper towels in hospitals.

Now compare this to the outright hostility to vaccines and FEMA we have here.
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Old December 29 2013, 01:43 AM   #92
sojourner
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

You're comparing government actions with public responses. Who's to say the chinese people didn't react just as poorly to the new rules as (some, mostly misguided) people do here to vaccines and FEMA?

Apples and oranges, man.
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Old December 29 2013, 02:31 AM   #93
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
Dukhat wrote: View Post
Edit_XYZ wrote: View Post
Nowadays, USA cannot put a rover on the moon in less than 20 years.
That's probably because we're too busy putting all kinds of rovers on Mars, the last one of which was as big as a car and was placed there by a skycrane that was never used before and could have malfunctioned in a million different ways, and yet it was completely successful.
USA put men on the moon ~50 years ago and now, it can't put a rover on the moon because of an already completed transport and landing on Mars (which will have no follow-up)?
No. It cannot put a rover on the moon because it does not have the necessary hardware and it needs 20 years to create it. Because, after said lunar landings, it not only stopped going forward, it went in full reverse.
Nowadays, in space related matters, USA is a has been, limited to orbital space, comforting itself with memories of its golden age.
Unless we forgot how to make Saturn 5 rockets, we already know how to get to the moon and it shouldn't take 20 years to do it.
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Old December 29 2013, 08:20 PM   #94
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Looks like we aren't doing as poorly as I had thought


http://www.nasa.gov/content/work-on-.../#.UsHHCPRDuio

Orion is actually coming along. It's a shame that the news doesn't pick up on this stuff.
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Old December 29 2013, 09:37 PM   #95
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Oh, that's pretty poorly. Bush announced the intention of building the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle a month into 2004, and said it should be done by 2008 and flying crews by 2014, which would've been 10 years to put a capsule into operation. As an aside, 10 years is also the length of time from the announcement of the Mercury program to watching a man walk on the moon. But we didn't stick with that plan.

Instead, in 2014 we're going to launch the Orion, unmanned, have it orbit the Earth twice and then re-enter, where it will be retrieved by an Amphibious Assault ship, which is almost 700 feet long and carries a crew of about four hundred. (SpaceX retrieves their Dragon with a 100 foot cargo ship and a 16 man crew.)

Then, in 2018, we're going to launch an unmanned Orion again, and three years after than we'll actually try to launch one with a crew aboard. So it will have taken NASA 17 or 18 years to design, build, and launch a manned space capsule that could've ridden up in the Space Shuttle's cargo bay, including its fully-fueled service module, except that it's a foot too wide to have fit. Then they plan to keep launching crewed missions every other year, or perhaps every four years. Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo averaged about 2.5 flights per year, even considering the gaps in between programs. With the Shuttle we were averaging four or five manned missions a year.
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Old December 29 2013, 10:02 PM   #96
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

gturner wrote: View Post
Oh, that's pretty poorly. Bush announced the intention of building the Multipurpose Crew Vehicle a month into 2004, and said it should be done by 2008 and flying crews by 2014, which would've been 10 years to put a capsule into operation. As an aside, 10 years is also the length of time from the announcement of the Mercury program to watching a man walk on the moon. But we didn't stick with that plan.

Instead, in 2014 we're going to launch the Orion, unmanned, have it orbit the Earth twice and then re-enter, where it will be retrieved by an Amphibious Assault ship, which is almost 700 feet long and carries a crew of about four hundred. (SpaceX retrieves their Dragon with a 100 foot cargo ship and a 16 man crew.)

Then, in 2018, we're going to launch an unmanned Orion again, and three years after than we'll actually try to launch one with a crew aboard. So it will have taken NASA 17 or 18 years to design, build, and launch a manned space capsule that could've ridden up in the Space Shuttle's cargo bay, including its fully-fueled service module, except that it's a foot too wide to have fit. Then they plan to keep launching crewed missions every other year, or perhaps every four years. Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo averaged about 2.5 flights per year, even considering the gaps in between programs. With the Shuttle we were averaging four or five manned missions a year.
Not seeing how any of that is poor...

Rather they take their time and do it right.
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Old December 29 2013, 10:29 PM   #97
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

clint g wrote: View Post
Not seeing how any of that is poor...

Rather they take their time and do it right.
The point is it used to take 10 years to "do it right", now it takes 30 years to do the same thing "right" again. It's pretty poor.

The problem is that NASA is a jobs program these days. They have to decentralize work to enough Congressional districts to keep up support to the point that programs stagnate.
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Old December 29 2013, 10:56 PM   #98
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Stagnate my foot. SLS is below budget and they have already done tests on near full size tanks.

The real difference is that von Braun didn't have a blogosphere of folks trying to get the Saturn V HLLV killed before it was even made. Things take time. Space X is no spring chicken either--and if you go by timetables, then Musk is doing poorly in that SLS is at the physical article stage AHEAD OF SCHEDULE and it is BFR that is only a powerpoint rocket at this point.

Arsenal method works--if people will let it.

Sojourner forgets that JPL can be described as a jobs program for Pasadena too.
But even if this were true--it is not a bad thing in that it allows political support.

It is good that NASA is spread over the South, for the Red Staters there would likely kill NASA if it were seen as a Northeastern liberal program. Now talk about poor progress! The Southern inclination actually allows support from folks who normally want to kill anything gov't does.

The common "wisdom" is that NASA is slowed by "standing armies." It is more realistic to see them as standing constituencies that vote--without which there may not even be a NASA, whose shoulders (COTS money) Musk has ridden on, much to ULA's disgust.

ULA floated all the bogus HLV bashing depot nonsense that ULA's own Josh Hopkins has questioned in his piece Doubts about Depots. Space Safety Magazine has already pointed out boil-off problems depots have in losing hydrogen--that will be a problem using piecemeal approaches with lots of medium class LVs that will cost as much if not more than fewer, larger of larger HLVs with higher volumetric efficency and simpler assembly.

People bought into this scheme which was just a way to kill Ares V and force the EELV stable onto NASA, and kudos to Mike Griffin for standing up to the USAF and ULA.

But the damage is done, and the anti-HLV propaganda has put to seed in folks minds, even though these same folks have Musk in their sights, and given time--will go after him with other self-serving arguements, as aerospace corp has already done:
http://www.trekbbs.com/showpost.php?...58&postcount=9
http://nationalspacestudiescenter.wo...mercial-space/

So it has been because of "big gov't" NASA funding into both HLV and Musk's cheaper rockets, that ULA's strangle hold monopoly has been broken--and that's a good thing. For once, the civilians have told the USAF to quit interfering in space matters.

I see no evidence of stagnation, which as an overall complaint was debunked by other posters in its own thread.

In this era, we crave novety--if we don't see something done today--we think things go slowly. I blame this on our short attention span theatre culture--not a lack of progress.

Last edited by publiusr; December 29 2013 at 11:27 PM.
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Old December 29 2013, 11:51 PM   #99
sojourner
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

Ah, here we go again.
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Old December 30 2013, 12:20 AM   #100
clint g
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

sojourner wrote: View Post
clint g wrote: View Post
Not seeing how any of that is poor...

Rather they take their time and do it right.
The point is it used to take 10 years to "do it right", now it takes 30 years to do the same thing "right" again. It's pretty poor.
Still not buying it. Just seems like there's alot of chicken little syndrome going on.
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Old December 30 2013, 12:28 AM   #101
gturner
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

In 2014 SpaceX has 12 launches scheduled. In 2015 they have 14 scheduled. They even have launches scheduled as far ahead as 2018. They started development on the Falcon 9 after NASA had started working on the Ares V (which grew directly into the SLS), yet started flying in only five years. By the time the first SLS is launched, the Falcon 9 will be roughly on launch number 75, and the SLS is never even projected to deliver more tons per year to orbit that the Falcon 9 is scheduled to deliver in 2014.
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Old December 30 2013, 12:49 AM   #102
clint g
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

gturner wrote: View Post
In 2014 SpaceX has 12 launches scheduled. In 2015 they have 14 scheduled. They even have launches scheduled as far ahead as 2018. They started development on the Falcon 9 after NASA had started working on the Ares V (which grew directly into the SLS), yet started flying in only five years. By the time the first SLS is launched, the Falcon 9 will be roughly on launch number 75, and the SLS is never even projected to deliver more tons per year to orbit that the Falcon 9 is scheduled to deliver in 2014.
And they are a subcontractor for NASA

http://www.spacex.com/about

Again, why all the worrying? NASA is paying them to do menial tasks so that they can focus on the exploration piece.
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Old December 30 2013, 12:56 AM   #103
sojourner
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

clint g wrote: View Post
sojourner wrote: View Post
clint g wrote: View Post
Not seeing how any of that is poor...

Rather they take their time and do it right.
The point is it used to take 10 years to "do it right", now it takes 30 years to do the same thing "right" again. It's pretty poor.
Still not buying it. Just seems like there's alot of chicken little syndrome going on.
I've watched each subsequent program at NASA take longer and longer to reach fruition over the last 40 years. It's to the point that these days I have more faith in a program getting canceled than getting completed. It wears you down. Most of the blame can be laid on Congress.

Caveat that I am referring to manned programs. Unmanned has a better track record.
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Old December 30 2013, 03:56 AM   #104
gturner
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

If they were developing a revolutionary, or at least new, propulsion system the drawn-out development time might be understandable, but they're not even using different engines from what they were launching several times a year for the previous several decades. In the case of the first SLS launches, not only are they using the same type of engine, they're using the exact same engines they've flown before.

What's worse is that they're re-using 1970's technology, yet the SLS will have very close to the same performance as the old Soviet Energia, which used higher performance engines than what NASA is even contemplating as an eventual SLS upgrade. NASA could've just bought an Energia and shaved 18 years of their development schedule.
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Old December 30 2013, 11:13 AM   #105
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Re: US retreat leaves China leading way in race to return to Moon

gturner wrote: View Post
What's worse is that they're re-using 1970's technology, yet the SLS will have very close to the same performance as the old Soviet Energia, which used higher performance engines than what NASA is even contemplating as an eventual SLS upgrade. NASA could've just bought an Energia and shaved 18 years of their development schedule.
NASA could have bought the Energia engines, but that would have defeated its primary purpose: to be a jobs program.
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