STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

ST09 did about $4 million for its thursday showing, so $3.5 mill is pretty good for Wed on 550-600 screens.

RAMA

 

Clarified.

 

From The Hollywood Reporter:

 

This is good news:

 

On the face of it, very poor but that's probably because it was pushed up a day under a week ago and it probably had less screens and buzz than many big blockbusters due to this.

 

3.25m total below TGG and IM3 which has led to people revising their predictions to the low end up 80-90m which isn't great imo.

 

I am seeing tracking on hsx.com forums now that is saying it will only be $85m 4-day !

It just keeps on going down and down all the time and that is bad news with what opens the week after. Fast and Furious 6 is going to be huge and The Hangover 3 not far behind. I think it's starting to look possible that Trek will do less than $250m in NA. I would say 200-230 now if that 4-day of 85m or less happens because of competition. We really need overseas to do well! Not looking good...

 

I was surprised at how empty the theater was this morning when I went. I just figured everyone was in the 3-D showing.

 

Shouldn't theaters be mostly empty on a Thursday morning?

 

Depends.

 

I don't know, I was going to find out but hsx.com seems to have gone down. The specific post in question is the 'BTC' numbers from 2pm, apparently BTC refers to 'Big Theatre Chain' and the numbers are their own internal numbers and tracking based on actual box office data in realtime. They apparently post an update at 2pm and then another update at 5pm (don't know what timezone) so maybe soon we get more information.

They say Thursday will be 14m, Fri 26m, Sat 28m and Sun 17m

This can change as the day progresses, but that adds up to 85m at the moment. Seems early to make such a specific guestimate though.

EDIT: OK the forum came back online and I found the equivalent guestimate for IRON MAN 3.

That guestimate was absolutely bang on. So doesn't bode well for Trek atm imho.

 

They got both TGG and IM3 almost completely spot on. It's a disappointing number considering ST09 but it's barely on track to do much better, it could even come up shorter if current predictions hold up.

 

Just to show the difficulties Star Trek Into Darkness faces in comparison to Star Trek 2009:

Movies released after Star Trek 2009:
Wk 1: Angels and Demons: 46m ow
Wk 2: Night At the Museum: 54m ow
Wk 2: Terminator Salvation: 42m ow
Wk 3: Up: 68m ow
Wk 4: The Hangover: 45m ow

Sum total of OW for first 4 wks: $255m

Star Trek Into Darkness: (ow guesses by me )
Wk1: Fast and Furious 6: 100m ow
Wk1: The Hangover 3: 100m ow
Wk1: Epic: 40m ow
Wk2: After Earth: 50m ow
Wk3: The Purge: 30m ow
Wk4: Man of Steel: 125m ow

Sum total of guestimate opening weekend movies after STID: $445m

Massive increase of competition + weak opening weekend = $200m in jeopardy.

I might be overreacting and I am being pessimistic AND I want to be wrong... but here are my concerns anyway. Please ram them back down my throat if I am wrong

Paramount may have fucked up. Its too crowded and Trek can't breakout. The opposite was true in 2009 when a lot of poor movies came out to a lukewarm reception and Star Trek was the stand out. Fingers crossed I am wrong!

 

It's possible that the release date change has skewed the figures and it'll hit over 100m, but this time it's coming up against a lot of competition w/ H3 and FF6. 85m isn't great imo.

 

Sequels are expected to increase and become more frontloaded, the fact that Trek isn't doing this points to very low buzz, poor marketing and too much competition - people saving their money to watch their first choice movie which may be FF6 or TH3 after having splashed out on Iron Man 3.

Trek may have an opening weekend that stays the same or lower than Trek 2009 but is more frontloaded anyway because its a sequel AND it faces much more competition. I seriously think it may struggle to scrape past $200m at the moment and thats almost a disaster. I need to hear some good news from somewhere for once.. its just been a downward trend for weeks/months. (I have frequented the box office tracking sites & forums)

Anyway I am off to sleep now, all will become clear in the morning... gulp.

 

It's possible that the numbers are being skewed by the date being moved but yeah I'm pessimistic now.

 

I've got tickets for the 12:01am show tonight. I'll report back on the crowd in the morning.

 

Box Office Prophets are calling for a 105 million dollar four-day take.

From HSX: