I know that that's been said. I'm agnostic on the point, however. Smith in the Christmas special is an extraordinary claim, and extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
We've been told many times that the regeneration will be in the Christmas special, not the anniversary special. It's hardly an "extraordinary claim" when all the available evidence supports it. And I see no reason to doubt it. The focus in the anniversary special is going to be on the crossover with the Doctor's past, the return of Tennant and Billie Piper and the Daleks and the Zygons and all the Time War stuff with John Hurt. Throwing a regeneration in as well would reduce it to kind of an afterthought. But it's pretty clear they're making the regeneration a big deal, so it stands to reason that they'd do it in a separate special.
I'd like the 50th to lead into the story where Smith regenerates. you know, a bit like the keeper of traken/logopolis/castravalva did. Maybe have Hurt as the villain for the Xmas special too. Or just have the Xmas special lead into the first one or two episodes of Capaldi's run. Really though, seeing the Daleks 50th is two days after Christmas, I'd actually like them to be the villains for Smiths finale. Plus they've only actually been used for one regeneration, so it's not like they're too overused like the Master. I also don't want the doctor sacrificing his life for one person like Tennant, Eccleston, and Davison did. It's beginning to get a little tiring now.
For one thing, the smiley seems to have gone right over your head. For another thing, Moffat has serious issues with the truth. I don't take anything he says at face value any longer. There's nothing wrong with being agnostic when you have an unreliable source in Steven Moffat. We discussed this on a panel at Shore Leave earlier this month, how to use the Daleks in a Christmas special. Given Moffat's propensity to riff on some other work for Christmas, we decided that the way to go would to be take Rankin-Bass' Santa Claus Is Comin' To Town and put the Doctor in the role of Kris and the Daleks in the role of Burgomeister Meisterburger. The Daleks have taken over Somberplanet and enslaved the human population, outlawing happiness, so the Doctor decides to bring Somberplanet's children toys and teach the Daleks the true meaning of Christmas.
What might have confused people is that Capaldi has hinted at being in the 50th - which isn't that much of a stretch given that The Name Of The Doctor already mentioned that the timestream/Doctor's mind thing includes all the future Doctors as well as past ones. I'd guess we might see a foreshadowing of Capaldi in there when Hurt is inevitably dumped back in.
Because I am big fan of "full circle" storytelling, I would love it it Smith's regeneration scene involved him laying on a table, dying, turning to Clara and saying, "Run, you clever girl, and remember me." REGENERATION EXPLOSION!!!!
A Doctor who would Not get along with his immediate prior self, should Matt Smith return one of these days.
Uh, that's not extraordinary at all. And, they have no reason to get our hopes up that Smith will be in the Christmas special, and then not do that. Lots of pissed off people if that happens. No, an extraordinary claim would be that Smith appears in the story *afterr* the Christmas special. Smith will be in the Christmas special. Mr Awe
Like I said, we have an unreliable source in Steven Moffat. Only when there are set pictures showing Smith filming the Christmas special will I believe Moffat. Until then, I am entirely agnostic as to whether or not Smith will be in the Christmas special.
Maybe I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but what exactly has Moffat lied about before?
Yeah nothing is gained from saying he'll be in it then not having him show up, unless it's Moffat's plan to show a surprise regeneration, but by the time the 50th airs surely they'll have already been filming (if not completed) the Christmas special, so it's highly unlikely they could keep it a secret that Capaldi had done a substantial amount of filming. I really hope Smith does get the send off he deserves, he deserves to be the star of his last episode (at least until the final few minutes) even though it would be interesting if perhaps the regen was 2/3 or 3/4 of the way in and the newly regenerated, and somewhat below par, 12th doctor had to resolve the situation.
It's not just Moffat though - BBC Publicity is making a Xmas regeneration a big selling point, which means it'll be a big part of the marketing, which means if it's untrue people will get fired.
Yea, that'd be cool. It could also get us away from the usual "First episode of the New Doctor gives us an uncooked Doctor that's completely different from who he actually will be, and it's also often Doctor-Lite"
I really hope Matt doesn't regenerate in the 50th because I don't want another kitchen-sink regeneration story. I want one with a proper plot.
What I'd like, is a frickin explanation for the Silence and why have they bothered the Eleventh Doctor for as long as they did. The Daleks would be lovely to have been involved, but given how badly they've been portrayed in Moffat's run, I'd rather they didn't appear.
Moffat has said he'll tie up some loose ends in the Christmas special. As for the silence. I thought we now knew why they were so concerned about Trenzalore? They knew if the Doctor went there then the Great Intelligence (or some other threat) could enter the Doctor's tomb and rewrite all of his victories. I figure their idea was to kill him early and prevent such a potentially devastating 'weapon' being left behind.
While that explanation does make sense, it doesn't really explain Madame Kovarian's attitude towards the Doctor or why she describes her conflict with him as an "endless, bitter war." Killing him to prevent a tragedy? Sure, I get that. But why do they treat him like a villain? It's nothing we'll ever see, I'm sure, but I'd love to know more about the origin of the Silence. Where did they come from? How did they find out about Trenzalore in the first place?