STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I understand what you are saying however you can always use the current weekends gross and percentage drop as an excellent indication of how a movie will perform until it leaves the cinema. From this figure I think it is possible to conclude that it will finish at around $220-$235m but I do agree that it may be wrong and it may get to $250+ but the chance is now very small.

 

STID still ahead of ST09 as of the end of Friday 31st May, $169.1 vs $167.5 but by Tuesday it will be nearly $10m behind and that margin will continue to increase until close.

 

$240 would be the apex I reckon at thi stands though a $220ish target seems likely. However worldwide target is going to crack $200 million based off starts in China & Korea. Worldwide probably a target of $440-460 seems likely

 

Yes, I think with $50+ million from China we could end up @ $225/$240 = $465m WW.

Trouble is that though it is an increase from $385m we got last time it will not be a big enough increase relative to the extra budget and WW marketing campaign.

The quoted budget for ST09 was $150m and now STID is $190m, so it needed an extra $80m from WW to make it back - which it did BUT also the advertising budget for overseas increased as well so I think STID will make less money than ST09 due to the extra expenses. Paramount spent more and would have wanted more of an increase after 3D, Inflation and overseas expansion are taken into account.

Lower budget for sure next time. I think it will still be 3D though.

 

I don't know, Paramount may be in this for the long haul.

There were reports that FX paid 12% of the gross for the basic cable rights to Star Trek 2009 (in the U.S.), if that figure holds for Into Darkness that will add another $50 million to Paramount's coffers. When you factor in International broadcast rights, premium cable rights and home-video distribution this movie may end up in the $600-650 million dollar range. Not The Avengers/Dark Knight territory but it'll make a very healthy profit for the studio.

 

Well it will be less profitable than ST09 I think...

Lots of guesswork (educated guesswork!)!!

ST09 Quoted Production Budget: $150m
ST09 Worldwide Ad Budget: $100m (guess)
ST09 WW Gross: $385m
50% Back to Studio: $192.5m
Profit needed from DVD/TV/PPV/Rental to break-even: $57.5m

STID Quoted Production Budget: $190m
STID Worldwide Ad Budget: $130m (guess)
STID WW Gross: $465m ??
50% Back to Studio: $232.5m
Profit needed from DVD/TV/PPV/Rental to break-even: $87.5m

 

I wish you'd stop bringing up your unfounded, unsupported "double the budget to make a profit"-line.

 

I have doubts over the marketing being way bigger this time? It seemed about the same apart from a little push in certain OS markets. Also Blu Ray/DVD's sales could beat ST09 + other areas of revenue. A large portion of the increase went to post 3D conversion if memory recalls so I wonder did 3D really bring in the $$$ and would they be better off doing 2D/IMAX only like the TDK franchise did for the 2016 sequel.

Either way I think a $170 million budget seems best way to next, right down the middle of 09 & STID.

 

The ad budget for Into Darkness has been put at around $100 million. And it's money well spent if Paramount is able to turn Star Trek into an International brand. This movie easily makes money when all is said and done and the franchise is better situated for International markets in the future.

 

Studios probably get back more than 50%, I be very surprised to learn the cinemas make all that much at the end of the day because Hollywood know how to horde the $$$.

 

I've always heard the reason concession prices are so high is because the theaters hardly make anything through ticket sales.

 

Well I only ever see the 50% figure stated wherever I look so I went with it. Even if that percentage is more STID is still less profitable than ST09 because of its bigger budget.

 

I agree it is money well spent, so do Paramount reduce that budget next time and hope that the same number of people turn out or do they keep it the same or increase to try and get more?

 

Why do you think that is? A failure of the ad campaign? The hype of the reboot drawing people in who would not watch a sequel anyway?

 

The split for domestic box office works on a sliding scale. The studio's cut is very high in the first week and then steadily drops week by week. The studio usually ends up with 50-55% of domestic box office, although for some films it can be higher or lower depending on the specific deals with theatres and how frontloaded their box office runs are. I read one entertainment journo who claimed some deals are now straight 50/50 or 55/45 splits all the way through, but I never saw that confirmed elsewhere.

The studio gets less from foreign box office, typically about 40% across the board, although China sets the rate at a much lower 25%. If you want a detailed account of all of this and how the studios often don't cover total costs from box office receipts alone, even on films they consider to be successful, with home entertainment revenue being an integral part of overall profitability, then read Edward Jay Epstein's The Big Picture. He's an investigative journalist who looked into the studios' modern business model.

 

Well, to infuse some optimism into this thread, I'm glad that in Week 3, we're still in many IMAX's. Sitting in an IMAX right now, waiting for it to start.

 

Many blockbuster films that are successful today derive their success from the international market. Of the box office profits, nearly or about or more than 2/3rds came from that market. For instance, Iron Man 3 has 32.8% (domestic) and 67.2% (foreign). Another example is Fast and Furious 6, which has 36.1% (domestic) and 63.9% (foreign).

In 2009, the percentage for Star Trek was 66.8% (domestic) and 33.2% (foreign). Paramount wanted percentages like IM3 and F6, so they conducted focus groups overseas to see what international audiences wanted. The result?

62.4% (domestic) and 37.6% (foreign). There was some progress on the foreign front, but not enough to propel ST: ID into the club of successful films. (As of yet.)

 

^^^
Those percentages will shift significantly by the end of its run. There's a lot more money still to come from foreign markets than there is from domestic box office.

 

That is why I said as of yet. I am looking at the release schedule for this movie. According to that schedule, the film will continued to be released into August 23. So, there are several months to go.

 

A little WOM story to share with you... While checking out, (STID novelization) at the bookstore today, the cashier got very excited when she saw what I was purchasing; "That's supposed to be a really good movie!" she exclaimed in a volume which made everybody in line, including the other cashier look our way.

Not missing a beat I loudly agreed, "It is a good movie!" Then my cashier started swooning about Pine while the other cashier simultaneously bubbled about Cumberbatch! I was left trying to pay attention to both them at the same time.

A noise to my left, I turned in that direction to spot other ladies in line nodding and/or murmuring their agreement with the cashiers. STID fever had caught fire all around me.

STID is a hit with a long theatrical walk ahead.