STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Its easy to disagree with much of the opinion in the article. Starting with Gatsby, which didnt really blow anyone away, got mediocre reviews and only slightly surpassed expectations ($45 million to $50 million was the prediction, and it made $51 million). Perhaps they took a small percentage of the female audience, the ones that would have made the opening hit $90 million, but its not really huge. Also if it holds to pattern and with the Memorial day weekend, we're looking at another $40 million+ next weekend, plus whatever it makes during the week, possibly pushing up the total to $140-150 million in 12 days. Its not a bad total at all.

RAMA

 

Good, objective analysis. The film seems to be in a grey area. It certainly isn't a bomb, but it isn't the big hit they were hoping for either.

 

The good news is that after this weekend, there won't be another big movie until Man of Steel. So two free weeks of weak competition until Superman returns.

 

There's lots of good news, starting with the fact that even with the two opening this week, it's memorial day weekend where all the movies get a bump.

RAMA

 

^^^^^^
This.

The Forbes article has some interesting observations but Forbes is selling this week's potential grosses very short. Given the film has performed in line with Trek 2009 there's no reason not to expect it the perform similarly during the week bringing in $25-28 million Mon-Thurs, and next weekend the film will certainly make some $40+ over the four day weekend giving it a total close to $150, again on par with Trek 2009.

I think waaaaay too much is being made of this last minute $100 million estimate.

Yancy

 

Yeah, this is like saying Obama lost the election because he didn't win Montana.

 

Anyone else see this yet?

Only 25% of those who went to see "Into Darkness" were under 25

Meanwhile something like "Iron Man 3" has 45 percent that are under 25, making that much more family friendly.

I guess Trek still has a had time attracting the under 25 audience. But this also means that it won't be hit as hard by Fast and Furious 6 since that franchise has mostly teen and young adult fans.

 

Expectations for Gastby rose in the few weeks prior to release. Before that it was thought most likely to be a problematic release.

The Forbes writer did a good job laying out the various scenarios of the domestic legs STiD could have. Reaching $250 million domestic would require a very atypical run for a sequel. I'd love to see it happen, but it's a long shot. $220-235 million domestic is probably the best case scenario, and $190-210 million is the range most box office analysts would bet on at this point. There's still a broad range possible for the worldwide gross, though, depending on how the foreign numbers continue to shape up and on the domestic legs.

 

So we're still at "it could go very good, could go very bad or somewhere in-between".

 

Iron Man 3
The Hangover 3
Fast and Furious 6
Star Trek

Ask at random 1000 under-25s which movie they would see if they could only see one and I would imagine Star Trek finishes a distant 4th. The solution? move Trek to a quieter time of the year and then it is the only movie worth watching.

 

I am drawn to the 190-210m range when I think about it. Next weekend could well be the biggest weekend in box office history and Trek is right in the middle of it. Strange move by Paramount.

 

Kinda, although "very bad" is unlikely. Paramount clearly would have liked the kind of opening where any uncertainty was taken off the table right from the get go and a triumphant gross was assured.

 

OK, don't have the Pocket Books only the Starfleet Academy books (just 2: "The Delta Anomaly" and "The Edge").

 

If Fast 6 is huge enough, that could mean there are tons of sellouts and people decide to go see STID instead. Being second choice would be a good thing. Those people that see STID be considered "spillover" from people who couldn't get into Fast 6.

This happened with "Twilight: New Moon and "The Blind Side", and both movies ended up doing good.

 

Yup.

 

I didn't even realise Fast and Furious was that big ! Obviously they wouldn't make 6 with no audience, but I don't think I know anyone who has seen one of them...

 

Generally most "tentpole" movies do well over Memorial Day weekend. There's plenty of room for Trek to make $40+ over the four day weekend. This could be a crazy weekend with 5 movies making over $20 million.

Yancy

 

Unfortunately, this seems to be the case. I'm 28, and I can say more of my friends are more into seeing Iron Man 3, Fast cars 6, and we got really drunk for a third time.

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but June and July seem to be quieter months this year overall. The only other huge film seems to be Man of Steel in June.

 

Fast Five (2011) grossed less than Star Trek domestically ($209.8 million), but far more worldwide ($626.1m). That was a big improvement over Fast and Furious (2009), which grossed $155 million domestic and $363.1 million worldwide.

 

Fast Six is going to be huge. Fast Five was really well liked by both fans and critics, and all the action looks insane. These movies are the very definition of brainless entertainment, and they don't try to be anything more than that.

I don't see Hangover 3 as a threat at all. The second movie was hated by many people, and besides there absolutely zero cross over appear between Hangover and Trek fans.