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Old March 24 2014, 03:30 PM   #271
Mr Awe
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Starkers wrote: View Post
The difficulty is that it execuated a lot of very specific manouvers before the last radar contact, before then turning due south which seems very deliberate. Also you've got the whole climbing to 45,000 feet aspect as well, and whilst it's possible that some kind of fire/disaster killed the crew before they could so much as send a mayday out, and also disabled the ACARS and transponder, would the plane still be able to fly for another 7 hours after such a catastrophe?
That's the big problem for me. Such a catastrophic failure that took out so many systems, and the crew/passengers, but yet allowed the plain to fly for so much longer in a highly controlled fashion?

I guess it's possible, but it doesn't seem like the most likely explanation.

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Old March 24 2014, 03:56 PM   #272
Robert Maxwell
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Mr Awe wrote: View Post
Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
I would just point out that it's not necessary for anyone to make course changes for there to be course changes. The plane will do that by itself, even if it's not on autopilot.
The authorities analyzed the course changes and found they were a nearly perfect turn that hit the nav points so perfectly that they concluded that it was programmed into the computer rather than a pilot using the stick, and definitely not random!

Mr Awe
I was thinking of any movements that happened much later in the flight, during the "missing" hours, not the obviously deliberate turns that happened shortly after contact was lost.
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Old March 24 2014, 04:04 PM   #273
Mr Awe
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

That could well be the case. But, as of now, I don't think they have any data about that time. Just the satellite pings that can't pinpoint the exact flight path.

However, it seems likely that, given the last known position/heading and any position on the southern arc, there would've been at least one more sharp left turn. But, will have to wait until hopefully we get something more concrete.

Also, I doubt the ability of the plane to fly so far/so long at 12k feet. I suspect, but not sure, that the plane would've had to climb again in order to fly that far/long. One pilot indicated that fuel consumption at 12k feet is twice that at 35k feet.

But, another significant course change/altitude change does seem likely after the last known radar contact.

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Old March 24 2014, 04:28 PM   #274
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

America's finest news source has the most moving and spot-on article on this subject I've seen yet:

The Onion wrote:
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA—Saying they have endured heart-wrenching uncertainty and deserved definitive answers, the families of passengers aboard missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370 expressed hope Wednesday that the media will eventually receive some kind of closure regarding the plane’s mysterious disappearance. “This has been an extremely difficult time for the reporters and anchors covering this event; they have put their lives on hold over the past 10 days and we know they won’t be able to move forward until they learn the fate of this airliner,” said Sarah Wan, speaking on behalf of the relatives and loved ones of the 239 missing individuals, who remain hopeful that some sort of resolution will be reached for the sake of the various news networks and websites. “The conflicting reports and numerous remaining unanswered questions have been devastating for them . . . I don’t know how they are able to stay so resilient, grasping at every new statement or bit of information that trickles out. Our thoughts and prayers go out to them.” Wan said there was still a chance the plane may have been hijacked and the passengers aboard had been taken hostage, but she didn’t want to unfairly get the media’s hopes up.
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Old March 24 2014, 05:25 PM   #275
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

"All Lives Lost" -CNN

Here's this morning's press release from the Najib Razak, Prime Minister of Malaysia.
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Old March 24 2014, 06:20 PM   #276
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

CNN Analyst Miles O'Brien, from 005's linked article wrote:
CNN aviation analyst Miles O'Brien called the fresh details about the flight a "game changer."

"Now we have no evidence the crew did anything wrong," he said. "And in fact, now, we should be operating with the primary assumption being that something bad happened to that plane shortly after they said good night."
Which should probably have been the primary assumption all along, although I doubt this will stem all the conspiracy theorizing one whit.
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Old March 24 2014, 06:41 PM   #277
Mr Awe
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic because in the end you're left with a plane that is under control, flying at a breathable (without oxygen) altitude, and flies for hours longer.

That doesn't mean that the pilots were involved necessarily, but it appears likely there was more afoot than just an accident. Nothing is definite at this point though.

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Old March 24 2014, 07:18 PM   #278
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Mr Awe wrote: View Post
Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic because in the end you're left with a plane that is under control, flying at a breathable (without oxygen) altitude, and flies for hours longer.

That doesn't mean that the pilots were involved necessarily, but it appears likely there was more afoot than just an accident. Nothing is definite at this point though.

Mr Awe
This is more wishful thinking on some folks part than anything else. They want there to be nefarious forces at work.
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Old March 24 2014, 07:22 PM   #279
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

You keep saying that, but... why? Auto-pilot would maintain course and altitude, and make whatever turns you program into it. And doesn't care if the air is toxic or not. And will fly until it runs out of gas. Pilots could have been flying at first, which accounts for some, but then overcome by events and manage to get autopilot on or something?

Not an expert on the hardware involved, but that you could blow out some parts of the system while having it still essentially flyable doesn't seem that far a reach. Far less of a reach than someone hijacking it and then eventually just flying out into the middle of nowhere until it runs out of gas, at least...

Unless you've got specifics the rest of us don't as to where everything is located, how they connect, what's vulnerable to what, etc...?
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Old March 24 2014, 07:53 PM   #280
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Mr Awe wrote: View Post
Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic
Attributing it all to anything other than a catastrophe is problematic, too, because put yourself in potential hijackers' shoes, and what the heck was the point of this? Not quite to Australia by way of going the wrong direction for a while... why?
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Old March 24 2014, 08:32 PM   #281
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

I have thought all along that this disaster was similar to what happened on Helios Airways Flight 522 i.e. That for some reason the flight crew, and most likely everyone else, lost consciousness, and the plane continued on auto-pilot until it ran out of fuel and crashed. However I think that their loss of consciousness had different causes.

The events in Flight 522 took place so quickly that the pilots didn't work out what was happening and the plane just continued on its original course. In the Malaysian airlines case the pilots did realise the problem and did alter the course as well as carry out other procedures before they losed consciousness. Also unlike Flight 522 there was multiple failures (communications etc) but no failure bad enough to cause the plane to crash.

Also, if any of the pilots' actions seemed a little bizarre couldn't that be explain by the confusion caused by oxygen deprivation?
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Old March 24 2014, 08:41 PM   #282
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Miss Chicken wrote: View Post
Also, if any of the pilots' actions seemed a little bizarre couldn't that be explain by the confusion caused by oxygen deprivation?
Pilots have been known to become disoriented and fly off on odd headings while trying to find a viable course. That likely accounts for a number of the "inexplicable" crashes that build the Bermuda Triangle's supernatural rep.
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Old March 24 2014, 09:02 PM   #283
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

USS Triumphant wrote: View Post
Mr Awe wrote: View Post
Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic
Attributing it all to anything other than a catastrophe is problematic, too, because put yourself in potential hijackers' shoes, and what the heck was the point of this? Not quite to Australia by way of going the wrong direction for a while... why?
There has been some speculation that it was a hijacking with the aim of trying something out. The idea is that they have some specific target in mind, but they weren't sure their plan would work, so they did this as a trial run to test the plan. It's a kind of far-fetched plan, but it is not inconsistent (or at least no more inconsistent than other hypotheses) with the data.
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Old March 24 2014, 09:20 PM   #284
Mr Awe
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

Scout101 wrote: View Post
You keep saying that, but... why? Auto-pilot would maintain course and altitude, and make whatever turns you program into it. And doesn't care if the air is toxic or not. And will fly until it runs out of gas. Pilots could have been flying at first, which accounts for some, but then overcome by events and manage to get autopilot on or something?
It just a matter of probabilities. It's unlikely that a catastrophic event that disables ACARS, the radio communication, the transponder, the oxygen mask system, and the crew, would leave the plane apparently fully flight worthy!

It's not impossible, just far from the most likely scenario. A plane with that much damage won't usually be flight worthy. On the other hand, there is evidence of human intervention.

Also, even if you accept that such an improbable catastrophic event happened, they did manage to get down to an altitude where they could breathe without oxygen masks. So, the plane at this point is flying in a stable configuration, and the occupants should be able to breathe.

The plane was directed to a lower altitude so even if the pilots passed out from lack of oxygen (assuming their masks aren't working), they would revive in the lower altitude. It wouldn't take so long to get down low enough so they should be OK.

The pilots can even open the cockpit windows at this altitude to clear smoke. And, that's if the ventilation system didn't work already.

The slow rate of the initial course change also doesn't suggest a crisis. There is also another apparent course change (and likely altitude change) after the last known radar contact that would be necessary to get the plane down to the southern arc. Why would the pilots program that course change in? Surely they'd know that their flight would end in the ocean?

I don't pretend to know what happened. It could've been entirely an accident, but that doesn't seem to be the most probable. And, by human intervention, it doesn't necessarily imply that any of the crew instigated it.

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Old March 24 2014, 09:24 PM   #285
Mr Awe
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Re: Malaysian airliner feared lost..

USS Triumphant wrote: View Post
Mr Awe wrote: View Post
Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic
Attributing it all to anything other than a catastrophe is problematic, too, because put yourself in potential hijackers' shoes, and what the heck was the point of this? Not quite to Australia by way of going the wrong direction for a while... why?
Suicide of someone on the plane? Or maybe terrorists encountered more resistance than expected and their plan failed?

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