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Old January 5 2014, 02:22 AM   #316
Timby
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Yanks wrote: View Post
Not sure how you can not consider wins as a factor.
Because a pitcher's wins, again, are an artificial statistic -- it only means that his offense happened to score more runs than he gave up during a particular game (to say nothing of any defense-independent pitching statistics). It says absolutely nothing about his actual performance. For example: Ryan Dempster was a balls-out awesome starter for the Cubs in 2012, but he didn't get his first win until June 5 because the offense was complete dogshit.

Let's take it a step farther and look at Maddux. In 1994, when he had a fucking ridiculous 1.56 ERA and a 271 ERA+, he "only" had 16 wins. In both his 20-win seasons, his ERA+ averaged 168 (still excellent) and his WHIP was north of 1. Again, still excellent stats, but not as lights-out as 1994 -- but if you were to look at his wins, you'd think that '92 and '93 were better, which is wrong on its face. Even if you disregard 1994 due to it being strike-shortened, every single season in which Maddux had more than those 16 wins had him boasting a worse ERA+ and WHIP.

This is why Morris' entire case for the Hall of Fame falls apart as soon as you look at any meaningful number: He was a good, occasionally very good pitcher who ate a ton of innings and did nothing else of note. As soon as you remove Game 7 from the equation (which was really due to Lonnie Smith being a knucklehead and Kent Hrbek having a cannon of an arm), you cannot make an intellectually honest argument for Morris in the Hall.

Last edited by Timby; January 5 2014 at 02:41 AM.
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Old January 6 2014, 03:25 AM   #317
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Timby wrote: View Post
Yanks wrote: View Post
Oh, what the hell.
Jack Morris - I remember him as one of the best of his era. He won 36 more games and threw 291 more innings than any other pitcher in baseball from 1977-94. Is he a Mattox? ... Clemons? no - but I think he should be in.

...

Schilling - Nope, 216 wins isn't enough.
Wins are an artificial statistic that has no bearing upon a pitcher's performance, and Morris was never even the best pitcher on his own team. Being an innings eater doesn't make you a great pitcher -- ask Aaron Sele.

Edit: And Maddux is not getting 100%. If Seaver didn't, no one is.
I think Morris should get in, but I also realize that as a Twins fan, I'm biased. Still, he was more than just an inning eater- he pitched a lot of great games (including a doozy in the World Series). This will be his last shot and I hope he gets in, but if he falls short, I can understand that as well.
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Old January 6 2014, 03:30 AM   #318
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Jerry Coleman has died. Link
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Old January 6 2014, 04:34 AM   #319
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Pegaritaville wrote: View Post
Timby wrote: View Post
Yanks wrote: View Post
Oh, what the hell.
Jack Morris - I remember him as one of the best of his era. He won 36 more games and threw 291 more innings than any other pitcher in baseball from 1977-94. Is he a Mattox? ... Clemons? no - but I think he should be in.

...

Schilling - Nope, 216 wins isn't enough.
Wins are an artificial statistic that has no bearing upon a pitcher's performance, and Morris was never even the best pitcher on his own team. Being an innings eater doesn't make you a great pitcher -- ask Aaron Sele.

Edit: And Maddux is not getting 100%. If Seaver didn't, no one is.
I think Morris should get in, but I also realize that as a Twins fan, I'm biased. Still, he was more than just an inning eater- he pitched a lot of great games (including a doozy in the World Series).
Assuming you're referring to Game 7, it was indeed a doozy of a game ... but, again, not because of Morris, but because Lonnie Smith was an idiot.

Again, what did Morris do in his career that was of particular note, performance-wise, besides eating a fuckton of innings? He gave up a lot of dingers, he had a few seasons of being strikeout king, never finished higher than third in Cy Young voting. He never had a run of being the best pitcher in the AL, to say nothing of the major leagues, and you can make arguments that he was only the second-best starter on both the Detroit and Minnesota staffs.

Going back to what I wrote on this topic a year ago:

Morris is an absolutely terrible Hall of Fame candidate. JAWS has him as the 167th best starting pitching candidate for the Hall. Let's say that method is massively unkind to Morris and he's actually in the 60s; only one person from 60-69 is in, and all but Eddie Cicotte are eligible. He'd instantly become one of the worst pitchers in the Hall. I'd be hard-pressed to even call him a borderline candidate; he belongs in the Hall of Good.

The following pitchers were better than Jack Morris, statistically speaking, in roughly the same era and didn't have a prayer at getting into the Hall: Dave Stieb, David Cone, Kevin Brown, Orel Hershiser, Brett Saberhagen, David Wells, Kevin Appier.
I don't see anyone saying that Wells or Hershiser are Hall of Famers, but because of Game 7, there's a ridiculous narrative around Morris. I don't get it. Again: Take Game 7 out of it, and what case do you have?

This will be his last shot and I hope he gets in, but if he falls short, I can understand that as well.
The Veterans Committee will elect him in '15 or '16 ('16 being more likely in my mind, because then they could put him in alongside Trammell, who will never get elected, despite him being one of the best shortstops of all time).

Mr. Laser Beam wrote: View Post
Jerry Coleman has died. Link
This is a huge bummer; Coleman was one of the all-time greats. We're going to be losing more of them, soon: Vin Scully doesn't have much time left, nor do Ralph Kiner or Milo Hamilton.
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Old January 6 2014, 01:22 PM   #320
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Timby wrote: View Post
Yanks wrote: View Post
Not sure how you can not consider wins as a factor.
Because a pitcher's wins, again, are an artificial statistic -- it only means that his offense happened to score more runs than he gave up during a particular game (to say nothing of any defense-independent pitching statistics). It says absolutely nothing about his actual performance. For example: Ryan Dempster was a balls-out awesome starter for the Cubs in 2012, but he didn't get his first win until June 5 because the offense was complete dogshit.

Let's take it a step farther and look at Maddux. In 1994, when he had a fucking ridiculous 1.56 ERA and a 271 ERA+, he "only" had 16 wins. In both his 20-win seasons, his ERA+ averaged 168 (still excellent) and his WHIP was north of 1. Again, still excellent stats, but not as lights-out as 1994 -- but if you were to look at his wins, you'd think that '92 and '93 were better, which is wrong on its face. Even if you disregard 1994 due to it being strike-shortened, every single season in which Maddux had more than those 16 wins had him boasting a worse ERA+ and WHIP.

This is why Morris' entire case for the Hall of Fame falls apart as soon as you look at any meaningful number: He was a good, occasionally very good pitcher who ate a ton of innings and did nothing else of note. As soon as you remove Game 7 from the equation (which was really due to Lonnie Smith being a knucklehead and Kent Hrbek having a cannon of an arm), you cannot make an intellectually honest argument for Morris in the Hall.
I'll agree with the ERA point. I ended up supporting King Felix getting the CY Young over CC. But it's really hard to discount wins as a factor. Felix was SO good that year I made the exception.

But I will take issue with "it only means that his offense happened to score more runs than he gave up during a particular game"

Take someone like Andy Petitte. He was his best in important games and that's what he thrived in

"it only means that the pitcher held the opposing offense to less runs than his team scored during a particular game"

If Mattox is left off someones ballet, I'm going to go shoot him. There is no reason on the planet or in the universe to leave him off a ballot.
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Old January 6 2014, 01:29 PM   #321
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Timby wrote: View Post
Mr. Laser Beam wrote: View Post
Jerry Coleman has died. Link
This is a huge bummer; Coleman was one of the all-time greats. We're going to be losing more of them, soon: Vin Scully doesn't have much time left, nor do Ralph Kiner or Milo Hamilton.
I came to "know" him while we lived in San Diego. Great announcer. If I remember correctly he took a lot of heat for critiqing the Padres when they made boneheaded moves. (trading Ozzie, etc).

...and of course, he won 4 WS with the Yankees as well.

"You can hang a star on that one baby"
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Old January 6 2014, 03:09 PM   #322
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Yanks wrote: View Post
Timby wrote: View Post
Yanks wrote: View Post
Not sure how you can not consider wins as a factor.
Because a pitcher's wins, again, are an artificial statistic -- it only means that his offense happened to score more runs than he gave up during a particular game (to say nothing of any defense-independent pitching statistics). It says absolutely nothing about his actual performance. For example: Ryan Dempster was a balls-out awesome starter for the Cubs in 2012, but he didn't get his first win until June 5 because the offense was complete dogshit.

Let's take it a step farther and look at Maddux. In 1994, when he had a fucking ridiculous 1.56 ERA and a 271 ERA+, he "only" had 16 wins. In both his 20-win seasons, his ERA+ averaged 168 (still excellent) and his WHIP was north of 1. Again, still excellent stats, but not as lights-out as 1994 -- but if you were to look at his wins, you'd think that '92 and '93 were better, which is wrong on its face. Even if you disregard 1994 due to it being strike-shortened, every single season in which Maddux had more than those 16 wins had him boasting a worse ERA+ and WHIP.

This is why Morris' entire case for the Hall of Fame falls apart as soon as you look at any meaningful number: He was a good, occasionally very good pitcher who ate a ton of innings and did nothing else of note. As soon as you remove Game 7 from the equation (which was really due to Lonnie Smith being a knucklehead and Kent Hrbek having a cannon of an arm), you cannot make an intellectually honest argument for Morris in the Hall.
I'll agree with the ERA point. I ended up supporting King Felix getting the CY Young over CC. But it's really hard to discount wins as a factor. Felix was SO good that year I made the exception.

But I will take issue with "it only means that his offense happened to score more runs than he gave up during a particular game"

Take someone like Andy Petitte. He was his best in important games and that's what he thrived in

"it only means that the pitcher held the opposing offense to less runs than his team scored during a particular game"

If Mattox is left off someones ballet, I'm going to go shoot him. There is no reason on the planet or in the universe to leave him off a ballot.
Take issue with it all you want, but you still haven't explained why. Again, look at my example of Ryan Dempster in '12 -- he was pitching lights-out for two consecutive months, but didn't have a single win during that time. Why? Because the offense was scoring an average of about 1.8 runs/game during his starts. You need to look beyond the basic stats like "wins," because in addition to not telling you the whole story, they don't even really tell you any part of the story -- shit, Vida Blue won 20 games in 1973, and he did so while walking almost as many people as he struck out, giving up a lot of dingers and being just a notch above league-average in every other rate and counting statistic. But if you just look at WINZ, then it was a great season ... except by any objective metric, it absolutely wasn't.

The fact of the matter is that no pitcher can "win" a game on his own, because he has no control over three things: The defense around him, his own team's offense, and how the opposing team's pitcher is performing on that given day. Ultimately, the point of baseball is to score more runs than the other guys. Here's a fun little read.

Really, pitcher wins is one of the three most bullshit statistics in baseball, in the unholy trinity with pitcher saves and batter RBI.

Yanks wrote: View Post
If Mattox is left off someones ballet, I'm going to go shoot him. There is no reason on the planet or in the universe to leave him off a ballot.
There will be several who do. Remember, the all-time record for votes is Tom Seaver, who topped out around 98.8 percent in ... '92, I want to say. Maddux is, when you drill down to the meaningful numbers, a better pitcher than Seaver was. However, there are two factors at play:

- There are voters who continue to return a blank ballot every year in protest of the Hall of Fame's decision to make Pete Rose permanently ineligible.

- There are voters (better known as fucking lunatics) who believe, for some misguided reason, that no one should ever get into the Hall on their first ballot.

I don't expect Maddux to be the first unanimous vote.

Last edited by Timby; January 6 2014 at 03:25 PM.
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Old January 6 2014, 06:42 PM   #323
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Yanks wrote: View Post

Schilling - Nope, 216 wins isn't enough.

Mussina - Yup, I think so.
If Mussina gets in, Schilling gets in easily. One of the best PS pitchers of all time.

Not saying Mussina shouldn't get in, but Schillings incredible postseason numbers makes up for his lower career wins totals.
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Old January 6 2014, 08:49 PM   #324
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

As I have said on multiple occasions, Schilling is the best modern-era postseason pitcher of all time. There's no one that even comes close since the deadball era. Even if he weren't, he's clearly over the line just based upon his regular-season statistics: More than 3,100 strikeouts, a ridiculous 4.38 K/BB average, and he's ranked 27th in JAWS, putting him ahead of noted Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan, Jim Palmer and Bob Feller.

Again, this is a case where you see why WINS is a bullshit stat. In 2003, Schilling had a 2.95 ERA, and an ERA+ of 159. His K/BB ratio was north of 6, and his WHIP was 1.04. He had a solid six WAR value, holy shit. Yet he only went 9 - 10, because Arizona's bullpen was a disaster, and their offense had morons like Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell playing all the time.

The fact that he is a ridiculous piece of shit off the field doesn't matter. Schilling is as much a sure-fire Hall of Famer as Mike Mussina.
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Old January 6 2014, 09:09 PM   #325
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

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This is a huge bummer; Coleman was one of the all-time greats. We're going to be losing more of them, soon: Vin Scully doesn't have much time left, nor do Ralph Kiner or Milo Hamilton.
I will be devastated when Ralph Kiner dies. He has been part of my baseball life since I can remember, I remember watching him on WWOR as a kid. His Kiner's Corner was the best show on television.

Being a Mets fan, I can't claim to be objective but I really do try. Mike Piazza should be in the hall of fame. His offensive numbers demands he should be there. He also wasn't as much of a liability behind the plate as people make him out to be. He is on average with most catchers in that aspect. However if the voters feel he needs another year or two before he gets in, I'm okay with that. While I don't BELIEVE he did steroids, he flat out denies it in his book. Even if he did, I don't care. I don't care if any baseball player used steroids, let them all I say.
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Old January 6 2014, 09:09 PM   #326
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Just to pick at the swipe at Ortiz while we're at it: why does DH disqualify him (as well as Edgar)? It's an official position, and has been for what? 30-40 years now? It's not going anywhere. With his bat, he'd play 1B if there wasn't a DH position, but why would playing mediocre 1B make him any more desireable at a HoF candidate? If, say, Prince Fielder was up for a vote tomorrow, would anyone discuss his fielding abilities? Not so much. Ortiz hasn't been a disaster when he's played the field (actually, really not bad at all), but he plays for a AL team, so doesn't HAVE to.

From a hitting standpoint, he pretty much fits all the criteria. Power, average, RBIs, face of the franchise, one of the 'most feared' hitters of the era (the usual metric used for judging hitters). Perfect narrative with all of those 'big moment' stories that people use to convince themselves mediocre candidates are better. MVP votes over multiple seasons (should have won over ARod that year!), 3 WS Rings, WS MVP this year when he batted somewhere just north of .750 AVG. Part of the 2004 Red Sox team that broke the 86-year drought... I mean, can go on like this a while, but everything's there.

Has one more year on his contract, and is 69 HRs from getting to 500. If he has his regular year (.300, 30HR. 100RBI), he'll likely get another year added on, and can't see him retiring without getting his 500 HRs.

At that point, what argument can you really use to justify keeping him out? If all that you have to point to is that he DHed, i dunno. Especially when you keep touting other inferior players. DH is a real position, and has been for a long time. It's time for Edgar to get in, and when Ortiz hangs it up, he should be a shoo-in as well. At the end of the day, if you're a pitcher in a 1-1 game, bottom of the 9th, pick any batter from 2003-2013 you'd LEAST want to face in that situation. Ortiz is going to feature very highly on that list. Based on personal prefernce, may not be #1, but out of the thousands of names to pick, he'll be top 5-10 on pretty much every list. Kinda how you should be picking HoF candidates, instead of just people with counting stats who were mediocre for 20 years.

Can argue about the Mitchell Report if you like, but with the caveat that a lot of things got people on that list, not all just straight-up steroids, and we don't know who was doing what. That was also before Ortiz's HoF-worthy years, so almost all of his stats have been firmly in the Testing Era. Not that people aren't still doing things, just that more and more testing going on, and he's never been popped outside of that report. Not saying I think everyone in baseball is perfectly clean, or that Ortiz is an angel, just that I'm sure he gets tested plenty and nothing has come up.

That, and I think we're nearing the point where you have to let it all go and just start letting in the Clemens and Bonds of the world. In that era, EVERYONE was cheating, basically. And there wasn't shit for testing, so how do you throw one person out when the 3 guys next to him were also doing it? And the batters get dinged for being obvious with HRs, but not like the pitchers weren't juiced as well, so the whole thing was effed up. Either all in, or blank the whole era until after the Mitchell Report. Just because no one has every SAID anything about so and so doesn't mean anything, as we didn't even hear about the OBVIOUS ones until years later. And there are already more than a few definite users in the Hall.
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Old January 7 2014, 12:32 AM   #327
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

Timby wrote: View Post
As I have said on multiple occasions, Schilling is the best modern-era postseason pitcher of all time. There's no one that even comes close since the deadball era. Even if he weren't, he's clearly over the line just based upon his regular-season statistics: More than 3,100 strikeouts, a ridiculous 4.38 K/BB average, and he's ranked 27th in JAWS, putting him ahead of noted Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan, Jim Palmer and Bob Feller.

Again, this is a case where you see why WINS is a bullshit stat. In 2003, Schilling had a 2.95 ERA, and an ERA+ of 159. His K/BB ratio was north of 6, and his WHIP was 1.04. He had a solid six WAR value, holy shit. Yet he only went 9 - 10, because Arizona's bullpen was a disaster, and their offense had morons like Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell playing all the time.

The fact that he is a ridiculous piece of shit off the field doesn't matter. Schilling is as much a sure-fire Hall of Famer as Mike Mussina.
I kind of wonder how much his low win total is attributable to playing on the Phillies. Even his post season wins record would be better if (iirc) Mitch Williams hadn't blown the save in each of his starts in the 1993 NLCS.
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Old January 7 2014, 12:37 AM   #328
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

I don't think anyone swiped at Ortiz, at least recently, but I will pick a bone with the idea of Edgar Martinez being in the Hall, because he's a marginal choice at the very best and I'm rapidly becoming convinced he isn't even that (and, in any event, voting for Edgar on a ballot with at least 11 locks and several more clearly more deserving / less marginal players than him is moronic).

Based on the usual traditional milestones, the answer to his candidacy is rather clearly no, and frankly, it's not even all that close. You just don't get in as a 2,200-hit, 300-dinger, 1,200-RBI post-war guy when career hitting value encompasses your entire case. You need more, some kind of reason: You could get in if you added value elsewhere or had one hell of a narrative, and you might even get in if you pulled in some award hardware, but Edgar Martinez doesn't really have any of that. To the extent that he's carried support, it's in large part because of the aforementioned argument that "he's the best DH ever," so the funny thing is that if Martinez were just a bad 1B, he'd have much less support than he actually has.

In terms of just putting him in because of a blanket "great offensive guy reasoning"... it's not really there. He's 59th in career runs created, which sounds really high -- until you consider that that's behind ballot contemporaries like Fred McGriff and Luis Gonzalez, who also have at least some defensive value. Martinez is generally treated somewhat kinder in rate stats that don't dock him for a relatively short career: T-41st in OPS+, T-57th in wOBA, T-34th in wRC+, 60th in offensive winning percentage. But those aren't really blow-away numbers, and you don't have to stretch far at all to find an eligible player who has a similar but superior case that isn't in the Hall, and that would be Dick Allen.

I'm not saying Martinez is someone to rally for or rally against. He's a guy for whom you can make a statistical case that I think is definitely questionable, but at least it's not outright insane in the same way that, say, Jim Rice was an insane case.

As for Ortiz ... he'll be the worst position player ever elected by the writers (and certainly one of the shortest-tenured -- he's only had ten years of being really good), but he has a lovable, cozy relationship with the media, and because of that and the ~postseason magic~ narrative case, he'll get Jim Rice'd in, but probably not until the third or fourth ballot at the soonest -- that Ortiz could only have had the career he's had in one of the two leagues does matter, to some extent or another.

Which will make the "Sacred Hall of Fame" argument put forth by lunkheaded fucksticks like Shaughnessy and Chass even more ludicrous than it already is.

Alidar Jarok wrote: View Post
I kind of wonder how much his low win total is attributable to playing on the Phillies.
I think that's a huge factor. The Phillies averaged 71 wins a year during Schilling's tenure, and that number drops to about 68 when you remove 1993 from the equation. They were a very, very bad team for a very, very long time, and Schilling is far from the first pitcher to have his win totals wrecked by pitching for a shitty team.

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Old January 7 2014, 07:05 PM   #329
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

We have confirmation that Maddux isn't getting 100 percent, as Ken Gurnick of MLB.com voted for only Morris:

As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.
The thing I can't believe is that you'd write that and then vote for Jack Morris. PED use in baseball became widespread in the early to mid-'80s, and Morris even had an unexplained career resurgence after that. Keeping your vote when you are going to refuse to vote for almost the entire ballot as part of a dumb moral crusade is a hell of a troll.

There's also a dickhead at MLB.com who only voted for three people because he doesn't want too many people getting in, which is almost as stupid as a Morris-only ballot.

I know we go through this every year, but, Christ, what a bunch of ass-backwards, sanctimonious pricks baseball writers are.
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Old January 7 2014, 10:54 PM   #330
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Re: MLB Offseason 2013-2014

^I said as much earlier to a friend. These people earn their living covering a game. Why any of them think it's appropriate to use the HOF ballot as their platform for a moral crusade is something I'll never understand.

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